Annuity Experience Studies March 12, 2013 Ingrid Guttin FSA, MAAA

1. Annuity Experience StudiesMarch 12, 2013Ingrid Guttin FSA, MAAA

2. Agenda • Company Background • Annuity Experience Needs • Annuity Experience Methodology • Dynamic Annuity Environment • Challenge: Annuity Lapses

3. Company Background • Affiliated Companies • History • Multiple Locations • Sammons Annuity Group • Annuity Inforce = $25B

4. Annuity Experience Needs Withdrawals Lapses Mortality Premiums Policyholder Behavior Agent Behavior Rider Utilization Product Development ALM/Modeling Business Management Valuation

5. Annuity Experience Methodology Credibility User Needs External Factors Trending Modeling Methodology Historical Data is the easy part…

6. Dynamic Annuity Environment ? FIA with MVA Premium Bonus GLWB Rates based on Barclays U.S. Long Credit Index

7. Challenge: Annuity Lapses Policyholder Perspective Bonus Influence Lapse Experience Surrender Value/Account Value Focus Group

8. Thank You! Ingrid Guttin FSA, MAAA iguttin@sfgmembers.com

9. Experience Studies March 12th, 2013 Michael Chen, FCAS MAAA

10. Experience Studies • Property & Casualty Insurance • The goal of a ratemaking analysis is to set the rates such that the premium charged will be appropriate to cover the losses and expenses while achieving the targeted profit for policies that will be written during a future time period. • Premium = Losses + Loss Adjustment Expenses + Underwriting Expenses + Underwriting Profit. Note: Source: CAS Basic Ratemaking Manual

11. Experience Studies How do we as Actuaries accomplish this goal? There are two basic approaches for determining an overall rate level need: 1. Pure premium method The pure premium method determines an indicated average rate, not an indicated change to the current average rate. The pure premium method is generally used to determine rates of a new product where there is not internal historical experience. 2. Loss ratio method The loss ratio method is the more widely used of the two rate level indication approaches. The loss ratio method compares the estimated percentage of each premium dollar needed to cover future losses, loss adjustment expenses, and other fixed expenses to the amount of each premium dollar that is available to pay for such costs.

12. Experience Studies Rate Indication Example: Indicated Rate Change = ( Projected Loss Ratio / Permissible Loss Ratio ) -1

13. Experience Studies • Rate Indication – Premium Adjustments • Adjustment of Premium to Current Rates • Parallelogram Method • Extension of Exposures • Premium Trend • Company’s Own Trends • Industry Trend [Insurance Services Office (ISO), National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI), etc.] • Other Sources (Bureau of Labor and Statistics, fitting distributions) • Other Premium Adjustments • Basic Limits Indications • ?

14. Experience Studies • Rate Indication – Loss Adjustments • Loss Development • Loss Development based on Case Incurred Loss Development Method • Loss Development from other methods example: Bornhuetter-Ferguson method • Loss Trend • Company’s Own Trends • Industry Trend (Fast Track, ISO, NCCI, etc.) • Other Sources (Bureau of Labor and Statistics, fitting distributions, ?) • Large Loss Adjustments • Storm (Catastrophic) Loss Adjustments

15. Experience Studies • Rate Indication – Other Adjustments / Assumptions • Credibility Standard • Complement of Credibility • Annual Weights • Example of possible alternative to (10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%) weights • Other Adjustments?

16. Experience Studies • Besides changing rates to the full indicated rate change, what other initiatives may be used to effect the overall rate level? • Underwriting • Claims • Expenses • Other

17. Contact Information Michael Chen, FCAS MAAA Actuary – PC Pricing Michael.Chen@fbfs.com

18. Experience Studies Glen Reineke, FSA MAAA FRM March 12th, 2013

19. Experience Studies Life & Annuity • Mortality (including a Cause of Death) • Premium Persistency (Flexible Premium Universal Life) • Surrender (and involuntary Lapse), • including modifications for Dynamic Surrender formula • Partial Withdrawal (and Policy Loan Utilization) • Other policyholder characteristics • Rider utilization • Investment Type of activities

20. Experience Study & Assumptions Setting Process The root of the question: What should we assume in the future? While there are other purposes, this is my primary focus. One approach: Take a look at the past and adjust accordingly (Actual to Expected = A/E ratios)

21. Assumption Setting Must be coordinated with modeling efforts Even if you create the “best” (most accurate) assumption possible, you must be able to implement it in your actuarial projection models. If your model can’t implement it, have you really accomplished your objective? For example, financial credit scores (and other 3rd party data obtained through Predictive Modeling) may provide excellent insight in to surrender behavior … but may not be implementable in to your actuarial projection models.

22. Assumptions Setting Is the past always the best predictor of the future? Could it ever lead you in the wrong direction? Must ask yourself if the past really is the best indicator of YOUR company’s future. Are there any “outliers” that should be thrown-out?

23. One example of modifying past experience Life Mortality Improvement modification example: If your company has recently adopted a mortality improvement assumption, you may want to modify your experience study to reflect your newest outlook on mortality.

24. Contact Information: Glen Reineke, FSA MAAA FRM Vice President – Product Reporting glen.reineke@avivusa.com