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Modeling flows and water quality in the Lower Jordan River with WEAP

This study focuses on the Lower Jordan River, from the Sea of Galilee to Nahal Bezeq, and analyzes water quantities and quality for the present and future. It includes factors like climate change, population growth, and changes in agricultural consumption. The study also explores the re-introduction of water to the Jordan River with specific salinity targets. The WEAP model is used to simulate water flows and chloride levels, based on hydrological data from 1996-2010. The results provide insights into current and future water management strategies.

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Modeling flows and water quality in the Lower Jordan River with WEAP

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  1. Modeling flows and water quality in the Lower Jordan River with WEAP Gilad Safier August 2011

  2. Reaches, Water Sources, Demand Sites, Hydrometric Stations, Quality Samples, Drainage Basins, Dams, Fishponds, Ortophoto, etc… • Focus on Israel, from the Sea of Galilee to Nahal Bezeq • Water quantities and quality today • Represents an average year • Future prediction for 30 years • Including climate change, Population growth, changes in agricultural consumption, Approved plans • Water re-introduction to the LJR with maximum salinity of 750 mg/L • 50 MCM/Yr by the year 2020 • 100 MCM/Yr by the year 2030 • 220 MCM/Yr by the year 2040 • Consumption of some of the water by Israel at Nahal Bezeq Work plan

  3. Timeframe: • Hydrological year starts at October 1st • Monthly Resolution • Hydrological data from 1996-2010 • One average year • Calculates: • Water flows (m3/month) • Chlorides(mg/L) Current AccountsModel Scope

  4. GLOWA Model built in WEAP Current AccountsThe WEAP Model

  5. Current AccountsThe WEAP Model Net Evaporation in mm Dr. Alon Rimmer

  6. המוביל המלוח Current AccountsThe WEAP Model

  7. Current Accounts

  8. Current Accounts - Assumptions • Runoff • Evaporation from the River • Additional water in the SWC • Groundwater inflows to the LJR • Return flows from irrigation • ….

  9. Only 1 hydrometric station at Nahal Harod • Assume Runoff coefficient is equal throughout the basin Runoff from Western tributaries

  10. Current Accounts - Calibration Nahal Harod

  11. Assumptions regarding salinity: • Fixed salinity of all water sources throughout the year • Effect of evaporation on salinity in the river itself is neglected • Runoff salinity is 50 mg/L • Salinity of return flow from irrigation is 800 mg/L • Salinity of return flow from saline irrigation is1500 mg/L • Salinity of Israeli Sewage is 350 mg/L • Salinity of incoming groundwater is 1625 mg/L • … Current Accounts - Calibration

  12. Current AccountsResults Winter flow is 3 times the summer flow Salinity drops as we go southwards in summer But in autumn it goes up at Nahal Harod

  13. Top 5 contributors: • EmeqHamaayanot – 26 MCM; • SWC - 19 MCM; • Groundwater – 18 MCM; • Nahal Harod – 13 MCM; • Nahal Tavor – 8 MCM • Rough annual balance: • About 108 MCM enter the LJR • 20 MCM are consumed • 12 MCM evaporate • Annual flow at Bezeq is 76 MCM Current AccountsResults

  14. Current AccountsResults

  15. Current Accounts

  16. Zero alternative - Assumptions 3 most important assumptions

  17. Zero alternative – Climate Change Monthly inflows to the Kinneret per decade

  18. Zero alternative – National Demand 80% 60% 20% 120% 140% 180%

  19. Zero alternative – ResultsWater level in the Kinneret

  20. Zero alternative – ResultsAnnual Flows 377 48

  21. Zero alternative – ResultsMonthly Flows – 1st period 2019 • Kinneret is still low • Gradual decrease in flows: • Climate change • Desalination of the SWC • Reclamation of Bitaniya WW • Driest year is 2019 Current Accounts

  22. Zero alternative November 2019 Annual November • Lower flows at the SWC • Almost zero in November • 5 MCM annually • Related to the level of the Kinneret • Salinity is lower than 1,000 mg/L upstream Harod • 2 largest contributors: • EmeqHamaayanot • Harod • 2 Saltiest Reaches • EmeqHamaayanot • Harod • Result: sharp increase in salinity between Harod and Bezeq

  23. Zero alternative – ResultsAnnual Flows 377 48

  24. Zero alternative – ResultsMonthly Flows – 2nd period

  25. Zero alternative – Resultsan extremely rainy year • Kinneret inflows – 865 MCM/Yr • Annually 80% of the Flow at Shifa Originate in the Kinneret • Monthly: • Flood in February- April • 7 months with no flow from the Kinneret 140 3.6

  26. Zero alternative – Results2038 - a dry year Upstream Harod • Kinneret inflows – 339 MCM/Yr 3rd consecutive dry year • Flow is constantly lower: • 2038 – 49 MCM/Yr • Current Accounts – 71 MCM/Yr • Upstream Harod improvement in salinity, but still higher than 750 mg/L Shifa

  27. Zero alternative 2038 – annual flow • 3-4 MCM/Yr increase in SWC flow • 9 MCM/Yr decrease of inflows from EmeqHamayaanot

  28. Zero alternative Local Water Demand

  29. Zero alternative Available Water suitable for irrigation in EmeqHamaayanot 5-6 MCM/Yr 12-18 MCM/Yr

  30. water re-introduction to the LJR

  31. Thank you for listening Gilad Safier M.Sc in Hydroinformatics 054-9444118 gilad@dhvmed.com

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