Demographic Trends in Missouri and The Lake of the Ozarks Will It be Business as Usual in the Future? April 9, 2014

1. Demographic Trends in Missouri and The Lake of the Ozarks Will It be Business as Usual in the Future?April 9, 2014 Bill Elder, PhD Elderw@missouri.edu

2. Overview • The Great Recession stalled “Market Conditions,” and “froze in place” many who might have otherwise moved to Lake of the Ozarks—many are still frozen. • Unemployment related migration has been harsh especially regarding construction—net retirement migration in Missouri is still weak. • Yet, the underlying demographics of the U.S. and Missouri still suggest migration of baby boomers to places like the Lake of the Ozarks, but it may be slower than previously anticipated. Boomers may have to work longer and may be more house bound. • Yet, after quite a pause, there is evidence of renewed growth … but it could be fragile (other fiscal and international shocks). • A look at economic trends, population patterns….

3. Boomers are 80 million strong and impactful, but alright already there are other cohorts….. Early Baby Boomers 80 million Gen X 46 million Gen Y 92 million

4. Challenging Times….unemployment as a metric The “Great Recession” of 2008 hit quickly, especially housing …. influencing migration trends … relatively slow recovery but not historically unusual 319,500 4-Week Moving Average-- March 29, 2014

5. 319,500 4-Week Moving Average-- March 29, 2014

9. Challenging Times…. Unemployment in Missouri Source: MERIC, 2010 and 2013

10. Challenging Times…. In Missouri

11. Source: MERIC, 2014

12. The differences in local labor markets reflect seasonal changes. Also, smaller numbers are less meaningful. Still, lower rates would be nice to see and are likely….as boomers exit. Source: MERIC, 2014

13. James Bullard St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President U.S. joblessness rate to drop below 6% by the end of 2014 and the Federal funds rate to remain at a "normal level" in 2016. "We are in good shape in both growth and employment level….we are all set for a good year for 2014." (Reuters) MICHAEL FLAHERTY HONG KONG Wed Mar 26, 2014

14. Missouri and U.S. Demographics World Population : 7.2 Billion United States Population : 318 Million Missouri Population : 6 Million Source: U.S. Census

15. Missouri and U.S. Demographics World Population : 7.2 Billion United States Population : 318 Million Missouri Population : 6 Million Estimate Pct. Change 2013 Since 2010 Camden County: 43,862 -0.3% Miller County: 25,092 1.4% Morgan County: 20,265 -1.5% Source: U.S. Census

16. * * * * * * South and West and around urban centers with significant immigration……Six states accounted for 54% of all U.S. growth

25. Service Centers are a key component of growth. At present The Lake of the Ozarks area does not yet include its own urban center large enough to sustain a “Micropolitan Statistical Area”

26. Nearly 85 percent of the U.S. population in 2010 lived in the nation’s 366 metro areas, and another 10 percent of the population resided in the nation’s 576 micro areas. Metro areas grew almost twice as fast as micro areas, 10.8 percent compared to 5.9 percent. (U.S. Census: Population Distribution and Change: 2000 to 2010 )

30. Over 9 Million People within 200 Miles of Camden County

31. Boomers are 80 million strong and impactful, but alright already there are other cohorts….. Early Baby Boomers 80 million Gen X 46 million Gen Y 92 million

34. Population Estimates for Lake Counties and Change

35. Components of Population Change for Lake Counties

36. Most Recent Population Estimates for Lake Counties Annual Estimates Tend to Vary……

37. Population Estimates for Lake Counties and Change

38. American Community Survey: Comparison Selected Indicators for three year periods

39. American Community Survey: Comparison Selected Indicators for three year periods

40. American Community Survey: Comparison Selected Indicators for three year periods

41. Selected Income Indicators Lake of Ozark CountiesComparison of three year estimates (2010-2012) to (2006-2008) The Missouri Median Household Income in 2012 was $61,301 with little change since 2008 Source: American Community Survey

43. Missouri Kid’s Count 2013

44. Missouri Senior Report, 2013

45. Overview • The Great Recession stalled “Market Conditions,” and “froze in place” many who might have otherwise moved to Lake of the Ozarks—many are still frozen. • Unemployment related migration has been harsh especially regarding construction—net retirement migration in Missouri is still weak. • Yet, the underlying demographics of the U.S. and Missouri still suggest migration of baby boomers to places like the Lake of the Ozarks, but it may be slower than previously anticipated. Boomers may have to work longer and may be more house bound. • Yet, after quite a pause, there is evidence of renewed growth … but it could be fragile (other fiscal and international shocks).

46. Discussion: Future Sustainable Growth… • What could encourage Baby Boomers to leap? • Will other cohorts view the Lake the same way? • What will signal favorable “Market Conditions?” • What economic sectors are growth targets? • Are they connected to nearby innovation clusters that foster jobs? • What threatens growth and what would unleash it?

47. Demographic Trends in Missouri and The Lake of the Ozarks Will It be Business as Usual in the Future?April 2014 Bill Elder, PhD Elderw@missouri.edu