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Demographic Trends in Missouri and The Lake of the Ozarks Will It be Business as Usual in the Future? April 9, 2014. Bill Elder, PhD Elderw@missouri.edu. Overview.
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Demographic Trends in Missouri and The Lake of the Ozarks Will It be Business as Usual in the Future?April 9, 2014 Bill Elder, PhD Elderw@missouri.edu
Overview • The Great Recession stalled “Market Conditions,” and “froze in place” many who might have otherwise moved to Lake of the Ozarks—many are still frozen. • Unemployment related migration has been harsh especially regarding construction—net retirement migration in Missouri is still weak. • Yet, the underlying demographics of the U.S. and Missouri still suggest migration of baby boomers to places like the Lake of the Ozarks, but it may be slower than previously anticipated. Boomers may have to work longer and may be more house bound. • Yet, after quite a pause, there is evidence of renewed growth … but it could be fragile (other fiscal and international shocks). • A look at economic trends, population patterns….
Boomers are 80 million strong and impactful, but alright already there are other cohorts….. Early Baby Boomers 80 million Gen X 46 million Gen Y 92 million
Challenging Times….unemployment as a metric The “Great Recession” of 2008 hit quickly, especially housing …. influencing migration trends … relatively slow recovery but not historically unusual 319,500 4-Week Moving Average-- March 29, 2014
Challenging Times…. Unemployment in Missouri Source: MERIC, 2010 and 2013
The differences in local labor markets reflect seasonal changes. Also, smaller numbers are less meaningful. Still, lower rates would be nice to see and are likely….as boomers exit. Source: MERIC, 2014
James Bullard St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President U.S. joblessness rate to drop below 6% by the end of 2014 and the Federal funds rate to remain at a "normal level" in 2016. "We are in good shape in both growth and employment level….we are all set for a good year for 2014." (Reuters) MICHAEL FLAHERTY HONG KONG Wed Mar 26, 2014
Missouri and U.S. Demographics World Population : 7.2 Billion United States Population : 318 Million Missouri Population : 6 Million Source: U.S. Census
Missouri and U.S. Demographics World Population : 7.2 Billion United States Population : 318 Million Missouri Population : 6 Million Estimate Pct. Change 2013 Since 2010 Camden County: 43,862 -0.3% Miller County: 25,092 1.4% Morgan County: 20,265 -1.5% Source: U.S. Census
* * * * * * South and West and around urban centers with significant immigration……Six states accounted for 54% of all U.S. growth
Service Centers are a key component of growth. At present The Lake of the Ozarks area does not yet include its own urban center large enough to sustain a “Micropolitan Statistical Area”
Nearly 85 percent of the U.S. population in 2010 lived in the nation’s 366 metro areas, and another 10 percent of the population resided in the nation’s 576 micro areas. Metro areas grew almost twice as fast as micro areas, 10.8 percent compared to 5.9 percent. (U.S. Census: Population Distribution and Change: 2000 to 2010 )
Boomers are 80 million strong and impactful, but alright already there are other cohorts….. Early Baby Boomers 80 million Gen X 46 million Gen Y 92 million
Most Recent Population Estimates for Lake Counties Annual Estimates Tend to Vary……
American Community Survey: Comparison Selected Indicators for three year periods
American Community Survey: Comparison Selected Indicators for three year periods
American Community Survey: Comparison Selected Indicators for three year periods
Selected Income Indicators Lake of Ozark CountiesComparison of three year estimates (2010-2012) to (2006-2008) The Missouri Median Household Income in 2012 was $61,301 with little change since 2008 Source: American Community Survey
Overview • The Great Recession stalled “Market Conditions,” and “froze in place” many who might have otherwise moved to Lake of the Ozarks—many are still frozen. • Unemployment related migration has been harsh especially regarding construction—net retirement migration in Missouri is still weak. • Yet, the underlying demographics of the U.S. and Missouri still suggest migration of baby boomers to places like the Lake of the Ozarks, but it may be slower than previously anticipated. Boomers may have to work longer and may be more house bound. • Yet, after quite a pause, there is evidence of renewed growth … but it could be fragile (other fiscal and international shocks).
Discussion: Future Sustainable Growth… • What could encourage Baby Boomers to leap? • Will other cohorts view the Lake the same way? • What will signal favorable “Market Conditions?” • What economic sectors are growth targets? • Are they connected to nearby innovation clusters that foster jobs? • What threatens growth and what would unleash it?
Demographic Trends in Missouri and The Lake of the Ozarks Will It be Business as Usual in the Future?April 2014 Bill Elder, PhD Elderw@missouri.edu