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Brian Toon Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics University of Col

Consequences of Regional-Scale Nuclear Conflicts: Understanding and Avoiding Nuclear Catastrophe Brian Toon Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics University of Colorado, Boulder History of Nuclear Warheads

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Brian Toon Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics University of Col

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  1. Consequences of Regional-Scale Nuclear Conflicts: Understanding and Avoiding Nuclear Catastrophe Brian Toon Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics University of Colorado, Boulder

  2. History of Nuclear Warheads R.S. Norris, H.M. Kristensen, Bull. Atom. Scientists, 62 (4), 64 (2006).

  3. New nuclear states continue to appear

  4. Nuclear Weapons States NWS Israel, 116 (102-130) DeFacto North Korea, 10?, 2007 Pakistan, 52 (44-62), 1998 India, 85 (65-110), 1974, 1998 South Africa 7, dismantled 1989, 1979? D. Albright, F. Berkhout, W. Walker, Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium, 1996 (Oxford, 1997) http://www.isis-online.org R.S. Norris, H.M. Kristensen, Bull. Atom. Scientists, 61 (3), 64 (2005).

  5. Fatalities relative to previous conflicts

  6. Fatality Estimates for Nuclear Wars The deaths per kt are 100 times greater for small yield weapons than for large ones.

  7. Fuel loading per person We assume fuel loading is proportional to population

  8. Soot Generation from 50, 15 kt Weapons

  9. Edge of the Ozone hole Global ozone loss

  10. Summary • The number of nuclear states is growing • 40 countries have enough fissionable materials for 1-104 weapons. • Modern nuclear weapons are small and lightweight. One weapon detonated by a terrorist could cause a million casualties. • 50 nuclear explosions of 15 kt yield can cause as many fatalities as once projected for a full scale “counterforce” war between the superpowers. • Large amounts of smoke can be generated from a regional war that could trigger global climate change and ozone loss affecting non-combatant countries.

  11. Based on the Papers: ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS AND SOCIETAL CONSEQUENCES OF REGIONAL SCALE NUCLEAR CONFLICTSAND ACTS OF INDIVIDUAL NUCLEAR TERRORISMOwen B. Toon, Richard P. Turco, Alan Robock, Charles Bardeen, Luke Oman, Georgiy L. StenchikovAtmos. Chem. Phys. . 7, 2003-2012, 2007 and CLIMATIC CONSEQUENCES OF REGIONAL SCALE NUCLEAR CONFLICTSAlan Robock, Luke Oman, Georgiy L. Stenchikov, Owen B. Toon, Charles Bardeen, Richard P. Turco Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1973-2002, 2007

  12. End of talk the following are spare slides

  13. 40 countries have the fissile material to build at least one bomb 1-100 weapons 100-1000 weapons >1000 weapons D. Albright, F. Berkhout, W. Walker, Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium, 1996 (Oxford, 1997) http://www.isis-online.org

  14. Radiation Fatalities for Various Countries from 50 weapons with yield of 15 kt

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