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Why Flood Warnings Fail Too Often: an Australian View

Why Flood Warnings Fail Too Often: an Australian View. Chas Keys and Michael Cawood. Flood Warning. Important in creating a potential for damage mitigation Well established in Australia (Bureau of Meteorology predictions for 40+ years in some locations)

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Why Flood Warnings Fail Too Often: an Australian View

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  1. Why Flood Warnings Fail Too Often:an Australian View Chas Keys and Michael Cawood

  2. Flood Warning • Important in creating a potential for damage mitigation • Well established in Australia (Bureau of Meteorology predictions for 40+ years in some locations) • Tradition of inter-agency collaboration (Bureau, water agencies, S/TESs, local government) also exists

  3. Flood Warning - continued • ’Best-practice' manual on flood warning published • But criticisms often heard – eg. of accuracy, meaningfulness 

  4. Some Generalisations about Flood Warning Services in Australia

  5. Flood Warning - continued • 'Post-prediction' elements of the warning task not consistently well developed (interpretation, value-adding, dissemination) • Much evidence of community confusion; flood losses greater than necessary • Agencies other than the Bureau could do more to build on investment in flood prediction 

  6. The Problem • Warning task not always well understood by S/TESs and councils or given high priority; responsibilities sometimes not clear • Flood intelligence lacking or poorly used • Bureau predictions occasionally ignored • Poor conceptualisation, poor message content 

  7. The Problem - continued • Messages often don’t answer the key questions • Will I be affected and if so by how much? • What can I do to safeguard my family and property? • ‘Consumers' not well engaged • Fear of 'over-warning' • 'Political' interference 

  8. Some Suggestions • Bolster agency commitment and understanding • Develop flood intelligence and use in warning • Develop 'pre-written' messages (prediction, consequence, action) • Better engage flood prone communities • Develop multi-channeled dissemination • Improve use of broadcast radio

  9. In Summary • Reform needed • Need to get full value from recent technical advances and capital investments in FWS • Is possible with changes in agency mindsets • Revolution in thinking and commitment of energy required • Better warning will help people manage their safety and asset protection during floods • To warn well is not expensive

  10. Why Flood Warnings Fail Too Often:an Australian View Chas Keys and Michael Cawood

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