1 / 23

ENSO Observations

ENSO Observations. Mike McPhaden NOAA/PMEL Seattle, Washington. CLIVAR ENSO Workshop Paris, France 17-19 November 2010. Observations. Required for Description, Understanding and Prediction. GOOS.

ophira
Download Presentation

ENSO Observations

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. ENSO Observations Mike McPhaden NOAA/PMEL Seattle, Washington CLIVAR ENSO Workshop Paris, France 17-19 November 2010

  2. Observations Required for Description, Understanding and Prediction

  3. GOOS Initial Global Ocean Observing System for Climate Status against the GCOS Implementation Plan and JCOMM targets Total in situ networks 60% May 2008 87% 100% 62% 81% 100% 43% 79% 24% 48%

  4. A Short History of ENSO Observations • Paleo Proxies • Instrumental • 1850s Matthew Fontaine Maury • 1950s IGY & Bjerknes • 1960s Satellite era for weather • 1980s AVHRR, Geosat altimetry • 1985-94 TOGA • 1990s High precision altimetry, scatterometry 30 years of systematic subsurface ocean and satellite observations for describing, analyzing and developing forecasting capabilities for ENSO

  5. Current Conditions http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/ Global Tropical Array

  6. Current Conditions http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/ Global Tropical Array

  7. El Niño vs La Niña http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/ Global Tropical Array

  8. Recharge Oscillator Theory(Wyrtki, 1985; Cane et al, 1986; Jin, 1997) Meinen & McPhaden, 2000

  9. Upper Ocean Heat Content and ENSO • Build up of excess heat content along equator is a necessary precondition for El Niño to occur. • El Niño purges excess heat to higher latitudes, which terminates the event. • The time between El Niños is determined by the time to recharge. After Meinen & McPhaden, 2000 Heat content based on TAO/TRITON, XBT and Argo data

  10. Upper Ocean Heat Content and ENSO After Meinen & McPhaden, 2000 Heat content based TAO/TRITON, XBT and Argo data Upper ocean heat content variations are the source of predictability for the ENSO cycle Global Tropical Array

  11. Lead Time Changes

  12. Seasonality of Lead Time Changes McPhaden,, 2003: “Tropical Pacific Ocean heat content variations and ENSO persistence barriers.” GRL

  13. Lee & McPhaden, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2010 Trends in Central Pacific El Niño SSTs SST anomaly Dec 2009 Niño-4 SST Central Pacific El Niños are increasing in frequency and amplitude

  14. EP vs CP El Niños 3/5 EP 3/4 CP

  15. Ratio of CP/EP El Niños Increases Under Global Warming 20th century simulations 21st century A1B scenario Mean Thermocline Depth Yeh et al, Nature, 2009

  16. Changes in Background Conditions

  17. Differences in El Niño Composites EP CP CP-EP

  18. Mean ENSO Mean State  El Niño Statistics? ?

  19. Summary • 30 years of systematic subsurface ocean and satellite observations available for detailed studies of ENSO and its decadal modulation • Lead time of ocean heat content (WWV) a predictor of ENSO SST has decreased from 2-3 seasons to ~1 season in the first decade of the 21st century • Loss of predictability concentrated early in the calendar year • Changes correspond to increasing incidence of CP El Niños • Corresponds to decadal changes in background conditions (winds, thermocline depth, SST) • Natural variability? Influence of global warming? CLIVAR ENSO Workshop Paris, France 17-19 November 2010

  20. And in the future?

  21. TRITON Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array: A coordinated, sustained, multi-national effort to develop and implement moored buoy observing systems for climate research and forecasting throughout the global tropics ATLAS • Key attributes: • Real-time • Ocean-atmosphere • High temporal resolution • Basin scale A contribution to GOOS, GCOS, and GEOSS Global Tropical Array

  22. Eastern vs Central Pacific (“Modoki”) El Niños Ashok, 2009 Eastern Pacific Niño-3.4 Central Pacific(Modoki) Niño-4

  23. A Short History of ENSO Observations • Paleo proxy • Instrumental • 1850s Matthew Fontaine Maury • 1950s IGY & Bjerknes • 1960s Satellite era for weather satellites • 1980s AVHRR, Geosat altimetry • 1985-94 TOGA • 1990s High precision altimetry, scatterometry

More Related