Loan T. Le Research Sponsors: NASA ARC, FAA

1. ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK FOR OPERATIONAL EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT CONGESTION MANAGEMENT MEASURES AT CLUSTERED AIRPORTS Loan T. Le Research Sponsors: NASA ARC, FAA 1st International Conference on Research in Air Transportation - ICRAT 2004, November 22-24 2004, Zilina, Slovakia

2. White Plains 30.7 miles 12.5 miles TEB LaGuardia Islip 46 miles Newark 12.5 miles 12.5 miles Kennedy New York City Airports

3. White Plains TEB LaGuardia Slot controlled Islip Newark Kennedy Slot controlled

4. Delta’s capacity distribution

5. Research problem • Operational and economic implications • Which congestion measures efficiently balance network load and maintain competition? • How the airlines distribute capacity among clustered airports? What are the economic factors that effect their decisions?

6. High-Density-Rule at LGA, JFK, DCA, ORD Removal of HDR at ORD Lottery at LGA • End of HDR. • What’s next? Slot ownership Deregulation AIR-21 1.2001 6.2003 1968 1978 1985 4.2000 2007 - Limited #IFR slots during specific time periods - Negotiation-based allocation • Use-it-or-lose-it rule based on 80% usage • Exempted from HDR at LGA certain flights to address competition and small market access • Cap of the #exemption slots -Congestion pricing? -Slot Auction? -Administrative? Research problem  Provisions for future slot allocation schemes  Find airline cost-effective competitive equilibrium

7. Air Transport is an Economic System Network carrier Low-cost carrier New entrants Foreign carriers Behavior individual’s algorithm for participation personal information & system constraints rules and procedure messages investments reallocations Environment rights, costs, values, technology, constraints Institution publicly implemented algorithm for goods allocation property rights, constraints Hub, international airport Congestion pricing Non-hub domestic airport Auction Administrative

8. Scheduling process (Barnhart) Fleet Planning STRATEGIC Planning Schedule LONG TERM Route Development Schedule Development o Frequency Planning o Timetable Development o Fleet Assignment o Aircraft Rotations Types of Decision Time Horizon Pricing Crew Scheduling Revenue Airport Resource Management Management TACTICAL SHORT TERM Sales and Operations Control Distribution

9. Slot valuation model • -Fixed fleeted schedule • Estimated • unconstrained demand Estimated Profit ?

10. Assignment Cost = Operating Cost + Spill Cost Estimated Profit = Estimated revenue – Assignment Cost Slot valuation model A Passenger Mix problem Supply X $200 50 seats $140 • -Fixed fleeted schedule • Estimated • unconstrained demand DXY=40 Estimated Profit Y 50 seats $110 DYZ=30 DXZ=30 Z Demand

11. Slot valuation model Early Morning Schedule X Late Morning Schedule X DXY Y D’XY recapture DXZ Y DYZ Z D’YZ D’XZ Demand Z Demand Assignment Cost = Operating Cost + (Spill Cost – Recapture Revenue)

12. Slot valuation model A Passenger Mix model: Demand spilled from p to r with successful rate bpr Excess demand Initial Spill Recapture Total Spill Unconstrained demand

13. network nodes Fleet Assignment Problem Objective: Find the most cost-effective fleeting Constraints: - Fleet Availability - Network balance

14. Fleet Assignment Problem fk,i=1 if fleet k is assigned to flight i each flight is assigned one fleet in-flow = out-flow fleet availability

15. Integrated Model (Lohatepanont) Fixed schedule FAM PMM

16. Airline-specific strategies • Decision variables: fk,i • Profit-oriented: • Operationally-constrained: • Flexibility • Frequency-oriented:

17. Summary and future work • Summary: • role of network balancing in addition to local optimization • increasing interest in agent-based modeling and simulation • Future work: • Analysis to major airlines operating at the 5 airports • Gaming and competitive behavior • Airline-specific modeling • Control for environmental effects (season)