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2009 IHC: WG/TCR Workshop Wrap-up

2009 IHC: WG/TCR Workshop Wrap-up. Workshop: Identifying Tropical Cyclone Research Needs, Progress and Gaps. Combined Man-Years & $ Included in Study. Total $ With Facilities: $50.2M Without Facilities: 37.7M. Total Man-Years: 228. General Research. NWP. Observations.

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2009 IHC: WG/TCR Workshop Wrap-up

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  1. 2009 IHC:WG/TCR Workshop Wrap-up Workshop: Identifying Tropical Cyclone Research Needs, Progress and Gaps

  2. Combined Man-Years & $ Included in Study Total $ With Facilities: $50.2M Without Facilities: 37.7M Total Man-Years: 228

  3. General Research NWP Observations Combined Man-Years vs Research Category

  4. Intensity Change Genesis Stat Aids QPF Track Fcst Storm Surge Observations Size/Structure SST Gradients Model Res vs Ensembles Fcst Efficiency Wind Analysis Radar/Sat. Data Seasonal Progs Combined Man-Years Mapped to JTWC Priorities TC Research Roughly Aligned with Operational Priorities Intensity & Structure: ~ 35%

  5. Snapshot analysis of all agency research efforts mapped against research needs and operational priorities Fairly even distribution of TC research investment among agencies cover most operational priorities Intensity/structure change #1, but very difficult Captures >90% research in 75 IHC abstracts Work in progress Summary

  6. Areas of Concern / Gaps Little emphasis on forecaster aids (guidance on guidance) Not just an applied research problem Needs greater emphasis in basic as well as applied Include math / probability community Little emphasis on resolution vs. ensemble model output* Summary * First HFIP issue

  7. Areas of Concern / Gaps (continued) Continue global model improvement (NUOPC) Major Concern / Gap Lack of inclusion of social science and associated decision-making issues related to TC research Summary

  8. Next steps of WG/TCR Develop set of interagency strategic objectives driven by requirements (intensity/structure, track, RI, genesis) Relate research efforts toward achieving strategic objectives Document continued work of WG/TCR Formalize executive oversight Address major concern to address social science and decision-making issues Summary

  9. Track Error Comparison 76K sq. nm 210K sq. nm 495K sq. nm (Texas is 267K) Capability Gain* *based on avg TC restricting c. 283K sq. mi

  10. Action: New DoD Strategic Objectives? Notional Measures and Objectives • Recommended Criteria: • Tied to Operational capability • Sufficiently challenging to guide research • Interagency (where feasible) • Verifiable—OceanSurface Vector Winds? 10

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