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History of the Future

History of the Future. 11: The Recent Future. Star Wars Changes Everything. More fairly tale than science fiction Far future, mythic past – same thing Myth for a whole generation Mechanizing blitz Toys Collectables Comic books Novels Computer games Return to space opera

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History of the Future

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  1. History of the Future 11: The Recent Future

  2. Star Wars Changes Everything • More fairly tale than science fiction • Far future, mythic past – same thing • Myth for a whole generation • Mechanizing blitz • Toys • Collectables • Comic books • Novels • Computer games • Return to space opera • Many ideas from 1930s pulp

  3. Boom in Films • Immediate Star Wars rip-offs • Battlestar Galactica, etc. – few succeed • Sci-Fi and Horror dominate 80s box office • ET, Close Encounters join Star Wars trilogy • Futuristic action films very popular • Terminator • Aliens

  4. Sci-Fi • Really a genre of its own • TV (with its own channel) • Films (mostly action) • Tie-in books • Much more popular than “classic” SF • let alone literary approaches • Enjoyable but formulaic • Appeal is predictability; not innovation

  5. Nostalgia for the Future • Sci-Fi takes place in “alternate future” • Props, concepts from 30s, 40s and 50s • Props of genre have a life of their own • Rocket ships and Space combat • Aliens and Mutants • Overpopulation or drab future • Time Travel and Parallel Worlds • As with props of mysteries or westerns

  6. Reworking of Older Forms • Often done in playful or revisionist way • Recent revival of space opera • Ian Banks – baroque, sometimes serious • Colin Greenland, Paul J. McAuley • Gene Wolfe • Literary transformation of SF and fantasy archetypes

  7. Sharecropping • Recycling of popular worlds • Started with Star Trek, Star Wars • Written under firm direction, low royalties • Sequels written to many old books • Asimov’s Foundation series • many Clarke books • New Dune sequels • “Shared world” anthologies • Many writers contribute to single series

  8. Boom in “High Fantasy” • Lord of the Rings spawns new genre • Terry Brooks is first best-selling imitator • 1977 – The Sword of Shannara (7 follow) • Many other epic trilogies follow • Donaldson (Thomas Covenant – 2 trilogies) • Eddings (The Belgariad – 2 series, 10 books) • Tad Williams (Memory, Thorn & Sorrow) • Most are crude and derivative

  9. Convergence • SF readers and writers with • Horror (Steven King, Dan Simmons) • Fantasy (Card, John Crowley, Gene Wolfe, Greg Bear) • All involve creation of imaginary worlds • Fantasy seems to be gaining upper hand • Harry Potter won the Hugo in 2001 • Escapist thrills separating from scientific and social extrapolation • As they mostly were before 1940s

  10. Many Sub Genres • “Hard” science fiction • Scientific focus, retains some appeal • Greg Bear, Greg Egan • Militaristic science fiction • “Literary” science fiction (dwindling) • Gene Wolfe • Space Opera (reviving) • Mostly with Scots, for some reason • Alternate History (booms recently)

  11. The Future • Social extrapolations seems to have faded • In futurology as well as SF • Idea of straightforward progression faded • Interest in science also fading • Especially physics • Dominated recently by computer technology • Internet viewed as transforming social force • Also viewed as business revolution

  12. Consumer Electronics • “The Dreams our Stuff is Made Of” • (title of Thomas M. Disch book) • Ideas of futuristic technology shape real things • Engineers, designers grow up reading • May inspire some products (videophone!) • Futuristic styling is popular • Imagery is inescapable in films • Influences look of devices, electronics • Futuristic thrill of using?

  13. Future in Business – late 90s • Predictions of enormous tech growth • Business plans to sell shares • Market research and analysis • Computer commentators (Negroponte, etc.) • Futurists like Toffler • Everyone is a “visionary” • Rush to try out new things • Communications technologies • Business models • Hundreds of billions of dollars invested • On basis of science fiction?

  14. A Paradox? • SF genre booms from 1930s to 1960s • Interest in future extrapolation now fading • genre boundaries breaking down • But since 1970s • Sci-fi ideas of future become ubiquitous • Influence SDI, technology stocks boom, etc. • We have a feeling of own world as futuristic • Has business replaced science fiction?

  15. Rosy Possibilities for Future • Mostly dull, business oriented • Growing world prosperity • Globalization of business • Forward thinking, caring corporations • Establishment of democracy • Ideological divides fade • Technology transforms world • Internet • Nanotechnology • Better jobs, more productivity

  16. Dark Possibilities for Future • More exciting! • Killer diseases • AIDS is huge world problem • Asteroid impacts • Terrorism • Biological weapons? • Nuclear war • Technological threats • Nanotechnology • Genetic Engineering • Environmental catastrophe

  17. What Does This Tell Us? • Are recent futures less revealing? • The early stuff seemed much clearer • Or are we just too close to it? • Do our own futures always seem natural? • What will people think in 50 years time • Does science fiction have anything to do with the future?

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