Mike Harrison Oxford University Centre for the Environment King’s College, University of London

1. CLIMATE CHANGE - AN UNPRECENDENTED CHALLENGE TO MANKIND AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL SCIENCE-SOCIETY RELATIONS Mike Harrison Oxford University Centre for the Environment King’s College, University of London mikeharrison26@btinternet.com With acknowledgements to Lucka Kajfez Bogotaj and Richard Washington

2. Some IPCC AR4 Highlights - Working Group I - Science • “Very high confidence” that [the] global … effect of human activities [is] one of warming • Warming of the climate system is unequivocal • Numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed [but some aspects not] • Continued … emissions … [will] induce changes very likely larger than those during the 20th Century • Anthropogenic warming would continue for centuries

3. Carbon emissions (Gt/yr) CO2 concentration (ppm)

4. Projections of future climate changes CO2 equivalent:600 ->1550 The future depends on human choices about emissions. 600 ppmv CO2 equiv (B1) Best estimate is +1.8°C [likely 1.1-2.9°C] by 2100; 1550 ppmv (A1FI) Best 4°C [likely 2.4-6.4°C]

5. Changes across the century for 3 month averages of 10-20ºC and 50-200 mm/month

6. Some IPCC AR4 Highlights - Working Group II - Impacts • Many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases • It is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems • Future impacts are expected in: freshwater resources; ecosystems; food, fibre and forest products; coastal systems; industry, settlement and society; health • Some adaptation is occurring now • Adaptation will be necessary • Vulnerability … can be exacerbated by … other stresses

7. Regions most affected In EUROPE greatest impacts on • Arctic regions • Moisture-limited ecosystems • Mediterranean • The Arctic • Sub-Saharan Africa • Small islands • Asian megadeltas

8. Vulnerable systems and sectors • Some ecosystems: • Coral reefs; sea-ice regions • Tundra, boreal forests, mountain and Mediterranean regions • Low-lying coasts, mangroves & salt marshes • Water resources in mid-latitudes & dry Tropics • Low-latitude agriculture • Human health where adaptive capacity is low • 20% - 30% of plants and animals at high risk of extinction if ∆T 1.5°C - 2.5°C

9. N Europe S Europe Increased forest growth (only in the beginning?) Increased fire risk Increased water availability (2070 ca.1/5) Decreased water availability ( 2070 ca.1/3) Increased yields (only in the beginning?) Decreased yields Europe North↔ South differences

10. 1% GDP Costs of mitigation to stabilise emissions at 550ppm by 2050 vs 5% GDP Income lossesif we do nothing: market impacts only 20% GDP Income loss including non-market impacts, risk and equity The costs of stabilising the climate are manageable – delay would be dangerous and much more costly Damages from climate change rise disproportionately with temperature !!! (A 25% increase in storm wind speeds is associated with an almost 7-fold increase in damages to buildings). • Climate change could lead to floods, massive population shifts, and wars over natural resources. • Ecosystems are unlikely to be able to adapt at the rapid rates of change expected. Stern Review (2006)

11. Some IPCC AR4 Highlights - Working Group III - Mitigation • With current … policies … global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades • … studies indicate that there is substantial economic potential for the mitigation of global GHG emissions • Changes in lifestyle and behaviour patterns can contribute to … mitigation

12. AR4 Outcomes - Some Recent Developments • It has been agreed to produce an AR5 using the same IPCC WG structure • A growing recognition of the limited abilities of current models to simulate regional climates (including rainfall) and their changes • New initiatives to develop higher-resolution models and to improve ensemble approaches

13. From 4 International Programmes (ESSP - Earth Systems Science Programmes) under ICSU (International Council for Science) Scientific Support to the IPCC

14. International Policy Making based on IPCC Advice

15. Four Fundamentals of the UNFCCC - 1: Definition • “Climate change” means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.

16. Four Fundamentals of the UNFCCC - 2: Objective • The ultimate objective of this Convention … is to achieve … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. • According to IPCC WGII AR4: • With very high confidence, no temperature threshold associated with any subjective judgment of what might constitute “dangerous” climate change can be guaranteed to be avoided by anything but the most stringent of mitigation interventions.

17. Four Fundamentals of the UNFCCC - 3: Mitigation • Each of these [Annex I] Parties shall adopt nationalpolicies and take corresponding measures on the mitigation of climate change, by limiting its anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting and enhancing its greenhouse gas sinks and reservoirs. • Kyoto Protocol (1997) • Bali Action Plan (2007) • Cap and Trade

18. Role of Global Environment Facility (GEF) in Mitigation • Set up within World Bank to manage funding re the Rio Conventions (with UNFCCC are the related conventions on Desertification and Sustainable Development) • One founding principle is that GEF does not help fund ‘normal’ national activities, only extensions to those activities in line with the Conventions • Within context of mitigation: • CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) • JI (Joint Implementation)

19. Four Fundamentals of the UNFCCC - 4: Adaptation • Cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change; develop and elaborate appropriate and integrated plans for coastal zone management, water resources and agriculture, and for the protection and rehabilitation of areas, particularly in Africa, affected by drought and desertification, as well as floods • National Adaptation Plans of Action (NAPAs) • Nairobi Work Programme (2005)

20. Role of GEF in Adaptation • Strategic Priority for Adaptation • Concrete adaptation projects; measures for reducing vulnerability; increasing adaptive capacity; e.g.s Kiribati Adaptation Programme, Lake Balaton integrated vulnerability assessment, Community based adaptation programme • Least Developed Countries Fund • NAPAs; funding to adaptation programmes in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Eritrea, Niger,Malawi, Mauritania, Samoa • Special Climate Change Fund • Four financing avenues for developing countries: adaptation; technology transfer; energy,transport, industry,agriculture,forestry and waste management; economic diversification • Coping with Drought and Climate Change (Ethiopia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe) • Other projects in Tanzania, Guyana, Kenya, Bolivia, Peru, Venezuela, Ecuador, China • [Also UNFCCC Adaptation Fund]

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23. Differences between Mitigation and Adaptation

24. What is Adaptation? - 1 • Shocks • Globally about 70% of disasters/shocks come as hydro-meteorological events in terms of deaths and damage; for numbers affected it is in excess of 95% (IFRC/CRED) • According to IPCC WGII AR4: … confidence has increased that some weather events and extremes will become more frequent, more widespread and/or more intense during the 21st Century • In part we are building greater vulnerability while at the same time not always increasing resilience • Endogenous • Future • Current

25. What is Adaptation? - 2 • Shocks • Endogenous • This is the manner of natural societal adaptation over many millennia • Undoubtedly this will be an significant approach during the future • Future • Current

26. What is Adaptation? - 3 • Shocks • Endogenous • Future • To a major extent this is the prime area considered by the IPCC, including: • Future sea level rise • Changes in ecological/agricultural zones • New or modified threats to health/food production/water supplies • Changes and new stresses to social structures - migration and conflict • Current

27. What is Adaptation? - 4 • Shocks • Endogenous • Future • Current • Tanzania is one of the poorest countries in the world. Its population of some 33 million is growing at about 2.8% per year. Annual per capita income is approximately $250. The economy, and most of its population, is heavily dependent on agriculture, which accounts for some 50% of GDP and provides 85% of exports. As such, Tanzania’s economy is vulnerable to climatic conditions, notably floods and drought, with some regions being particularly drought-prone.

28. UNFCCC Nairobi Work Programme • Objectives: • To assist all Parties, in particular developing countries, including the least developed countries and small island developing States, to improve their understanding and assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation; and • To assist all Parties to make informed decisions on practical adaptation actions and measures to respond to climate change on a sound scientific, technical and socio-economic basis, taking into account current and future climate change and variability.

29. UNFCCC Nairobi Work Programme • Nine action areas: • Methods and tools • Data and observations • Climate modelling, scenarios and downscaling • Climate related risks and extreme events • Socio-economic information • Adaptation planning and practices • Research • Technologies for adaptation • Economic diversification

30. Nairobi Work Programme • Organisations involved:

31. UN Adaptation Activities • Numerous across many organisations - but often not coordinated • Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC)  START • Climate for Development in Africa (ClimDevAfrica)  G8/AfDB/AUC

32. Current Adaptation • Not much long-term planning in very poor African countries: LDCs • Lack of expertise (brain drain) for planning • Lack of finance to implement plans • Current contribution of climate services to development in most LDCs is not easily distinguishable from zero ….. compared with what is needed.

33. Current Adaptation • A fourth reason why some Goals are not being met is simply that policymakers are unaware of the challenges, unaware of what to do, or neglectful of core public issues. Environmental policy is often grossly neglected because of politically weak environment ministries, even weaker law enforcement, and considerable deficiencies in information and in the capacity to act on that information. Few governments currently have the capacity to assess the deep links between ecosystem services (hydrology, biodiversity, natural hazard reduction) and poverty reduction. The environment is much too often taken as given, or regarded as a resource to be exploited.

34. Current Adaptation • Multiple sectors involved, limited research base • Necessary data are often either missing, of doubtful quality, or difficult to access • Has tended to be a focus on climate predictions, especially seasonal forecasts • Often seen/managed as a one-off activity independent of other major issues, such as the Millennium Development Goals, other Rio Conventions, etc.

35. Decision Making and Policy • In all instances adaptation requires some form of decision process, yet these decision processes are often poorly defined  Espoo Conference • Further adaptation needs appropriate policy frameworks in which to function effectively  INCLUDE • Ideally adaptation should be planned within the contexts of other related challenges  Millennium Development Goals, other Rio and environmental Conventions, etc.

36. Summarising Issues • Key outcomes for adaptation activities: • Focus • Legacy • Integration with other activities • Appropriate adjustment to or creation of policies • Ideally, portability