Road freight productivity – trends and prospects

1. Road freight productivity – trends and prospects Jack McAuley, BTRE BTRE Transport Colloquium 13 - 14 June 2007

2. Outline • Historical trends in articulated truck freight volumes and vehicle travel • Projected increases in articulated truck freight volumes and vehicle travel • Potential impact on vehicle traffic of potential regulatory changes: • Performance Based Standards • Expansion of B-triple network

3. Road freight has grown at 5.8 per cent per annum since 1971 Source: BTRE Report 112

4. Articulated trucks account for most of the growth Source: BTRE Report 112

5. Types of articulated truck Single articulated truck Images adapted from National Transport Commission website

6. Types of articulated truck Single articulated truck B-double Images adapted from National Transport Commission website

7. Types of articulated truck Single articulated truck B-double Road train Images adapted from National Transport Commission website

8. Types of articulated truck Single articulated truck B-double Road train B-triple Images adapted from National Transport Commission website

9. The share of freight carried by B-doubles is growing at 2.2 percentage points per annum Source: ABS Survey of Motor Vehicle Use, 1992-2005

10. The average load of each vehicle class has remained relatively constant… Source: Vicroads CULWAY data for laden trucks on the Hume Highway

11. and there have been no changes to legal mass limits in the last decade Source: BTRE Report 112

12. …so that substitution to B-doubles is driving the increase in load for articulated trucks as a class Source: BTRE Report 112, Vicroads CULWAY data

13. Increase in average load is expected to continue • There is scope for further substitution to B-doubles • The increase is truck travel will be slower than the increase in freight • Per unit of freight: • Lower environmental costs • Lower safety costs • Lower road wear costs

14. Truck travel will grow slower than road freight Source: BTRE (2005, 2006)

15. Future regulatory changes • Implementation of performance based standards (PBS) • Possible expansion of B-triple network

16. Performance Based Standards could reduce truck travel by a further 5 % Source: BTRE (2005, 2006)

17. Expansion of B-triple network to inter-capital routes could reduce truck travel by a further 4% Source: BTRE (2005, 2006)

18. Summary • The articulated truck freight task will increase by 69 per cent by 2020 • Articulated truck travel will increase by 29 per cent by 2020 • With no further regulatory changes, articulated truck travel per unit of freight will be 35 per cent lower in 2020 • Performance Based Standards could reduce truck travel by a further 5 % • B-triples on inter-capital routes could reduce truck travel by a further 4 %

19. References ABS, Survey of Motor Vehicle Use BTRE 2006, Freight Measurement and Modelling, Report 112 BTRE 2005, Greenhouse gas emissions from Australian transport: Base Case Projections to 2020, Report for the Australian Greenhouse Office NRTC 2001, Performance-Based Standards Policy Framework for Heavy Vehicle Regulation, Regulatory Impact Statement, May