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Cyclone Classification:  Internal Structure versus Energetics - An aplication to the Catarina Event.

Cyclone Classification:  Internal Structure versus Energetics - An aplication to the Catarina Event. . Pedro Leite da Silva Dias National Laboratory of Scientific Computing Ministry of Science and Technology Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences

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Cyclone Classification:  Internal Structure versus Energetics - An aplication to the Catarina Event.

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  1. Cyclone Classification:  Internal Structure versus Energetics - An aplication to the Catarina Event. Pedro Leite da Silva Dias National Laboratory of Scientific Computing Ministry of Science and Technology Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences University of São Paulo (USP) Lll Encontro internacional sobre ciclones do atlântico sul, previsão de trajetórias e avaliação de riscos Rio de Janeiro, 19 a 21 de maio de 2008

  2. Classical view:

  3. But, on March 28 2004 …..

  4. 03 UTC 22 March 15 UTC 22 March 03 UTC 23 March 15 UTC 23 March 03 UTC 24 March 15 UTC 24 March 03 UTC 25 March 15 UTC 2 March 0/ UTC 26 March 15 UTC 26 March 15 UTC 27 March 15 UTC 28 March From Gan and Rao 2006 Pezza and Simmonds, 2005

  5. Produced by J. Conrado)

  6. Produced by J. Conrado)

  7. Produced by J. Conrado)

  8. Produced by J. Conrado)

  9. Produced by J. Conrado)

  10. Produced by J. Conrado)

  11. Produced by J. Conrado)

  12. How about satellite derived precipitation?

  13. GOES/TRMM (R.Gevaerd

  14. 27 March 2004 11 Z 5-8km

  15. Vertical structure

  16. Relative humidity - shaded Potential temperature (isolines) From Bonatti et al. 2006 Q

  17. From Bonatti et al. 2006 Relative humidity - shaded Potential temperature (isolines) Q F F

  18. From Bonatti et al. 2006 Relative humidity - shaded Potential temperature (isolines)

  19. Vertical Structure - FSU http://www.moe.met.fsu.edu Low troposphere vertical shear (warm x cold core) Upper troposphere vertical shear symmetry Hart 2003 - Cyclone Phase

  20. upper troposphere AVN – ANALYSIS lower troposphere

  21. upper troposphere CIRA AMSU retrieval lower troposphere

  22. Cross section at 29.3S 00Z28Mar2004 Q1 EYE Q2 EYE NCEP – High resolution GFS analysis 50km

  23. SurfaceFluxes

  24. Sensible Heat Flux Anomaly Surface

  25. Latent Heat Flux Anomaly Surface

  26. How about the numerical guidance from the operational models?

  27. 162 h 136h 114h CPTEC ETA forecast at 06 UTC 28 Mar 2004

  28. 90 h 66h 42h CPTEC ETA forecast at 06 UTC 28 Mar 2004

  29. Does increased resolution improve the numerical results?

  30. BRAMS • Version 3.0 • Based on RAMS 5.04 • Maintained by CPTEC • Particular features: • Shallow Cumulus Parameterization • Deep cumulus parametrization – “Grell-Ensemble” • Initialization of soil moisture • Option for surface processes: LEAD and SIB2 (with Carbon) • Surface data assimilation with internal quality control • CATT – dispersion module for gases and aerosols produced by biomass burning and urban sources • 2 grids: 32 km and 8 km (with cloud microphysics) • Previous experiments by Menezes et al. 2004- CBMET

  31. 3h Precipitation BRAMS at 8km resolution

  32. Warm pools detached from Brazil Current are common but this one can’t be tracked … This warm area may be important.. SST Anomalies – High Resolution data -20km

  33. Effect of high Resolution SST: less intense system !!!! See Renato Silva 2004 -XIIICBMet

  34. Impact of perturbation in the latent heating vertical profile Geopotential tendency is proportional to the vertical derivative of the diabatic heating

  35. Possible Trajectories with perturbed convective heating

  36. Better fit to obs

  37. Better fit to obs

  38. Summary • Do tropical cyclones belong to a unique family? • OR are we artificially separating a continuum of atmospheric vortices into groups? • In Australia: subtropical lows with hurricane intensity winds

  39. ENERGETICS Brennan e Vincent (1980)

  40. Cyclone tracking: At each time, energetics at the box is computed

  41. NCEP GFS operational Analysis (high resolution 50km) of Catarina

  42. Other peculiar cases….

  43. Typical baroclinic system…

  44. This is the previous cyclone yesterday .ppt Note large baroclinic conversion and increase of Ke Small contribution of Q’T Increase of Ke also related to barotropic conversion

  45. Ciclone off the S coast of Brazil - 13/Feb/2008 Initial phase is typically baroclonic Latent heat picks up later… Strong energy conversion Barotropic conversion from Ke to Kz except at the end

  46. An interesting case of a schizophrenic cyclone… (Santis et al. 2008)

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