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Presentation to Upper Valley Housing Coalition Lebanon, New Hampshire April 29, 2005 Prepared by

Housing New Hampshire’s Workforce Prepared for the New Hampshire Workforce Housing Council www.workforcehousingnh.com. Presentation to Upper Valley Housing Coalition Lebanon, New Hampshire April 29, 2005 Prepared by Dr. Lisa K. Shapiro, Chief Economist Gallagher, Callahan & Gartrell, P.A.

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Presentation to Upper Valley Housing Coalition Lebanon, New Hampshire April 29, 2005 Prepared by

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  1. Housing New Hampshire’s WorkforcePrepared for the New Hampshire Workforce Housing Councilwww.workforcehousingnh.com Presentation to Upper Valley Housing Coalition Lebanon, New Hampshire April 29, 2005 Prepared by Dr. Lisa K. Shapiro, Chief Economist Gallagher, Callahan & Gartrell, P.A. Augusta Boston Concord 800-528-1181 shapiro@gcglaw.com gcglaw.com

  2. Overview of Study • The Data • Key Trends in Housing in New Hampshire • 1990 – 1996 • 1996 – 2001 • 2001 – 2005 • The Literature • Market Forces • Non-market Forces • The Estimated Economic Impacts to New Hampshire • Employment • Income • Gross State Product • Sales • Tax Revenues

  3. Vacancy Rates and Rental Costs Gross Rental Costs Statewide Vacancy Rate Source: New Hampshire Housing Finance Authority Annual Rental Surveys.

  4. New Hampshire Residential Building Permits1990 - 2004

  5. Home Sale Prices vs. Household Income

  6. Changes in Assessment2000 - 2005

  7. Affordability of Workforce Housing Sources and Notes: Dr. Shapiro, Gallagher, Callahan and Gartrell “Housing New Hampshire’s Workforce” March 2005 for the Workforce Housing Council. New Hampshire Economic Labor Market Information Bureau. New Hampshire Occupational Employment and Wages, January 2005, based on the November 2003 survey by the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) Program. Assessment Divisions of selected communities. Years for previous and current assessments differ across the communities, but all are between 2000 and 2005. Dotted lines represent the affordable home value for a household with one income earning the statewide average salary for that occupation. Affordability calculated here as three times annual income - actual affordability depends on specific income, interest rates, property taxes, debt ratios, household wealth, and etc. Middle, Lower Middle, and Lower refer to the Median House Value (for all homes) in that quintile.

  8. Aggregate Housing Demand vs. Housing SupplyForecasted Annual Statewide

  9. Forecasted Housing Demand vs. Housing SupplyAnnual, By County

  10. Growth in Median Sales Prices Select Upper Valley Communities Sources and Notes: Dr. Shapiro calculations from data from New Hampshire Housing Authority and New Hampshire Office of Energy and State Planning.

  11. Growth in Sale Prices and Housing Units Sources and Notes: Dr. Shapiro calculations from data from New Hampshire Housing Authority and New Hampshire Office of Energy and State Planning.

  12. Purchase Price, Family Income, and Interest Rates1988 - 2004

  13. New Hampshire Employer Opinion Polls2002 and 2005

  14. New Hampshire Employer Opinion Polls2002 and 2005

  15. Non-Market Factors • Examples of Regulatory Policies and Practices which Impact Housing Supply • Minimum Lot Size • Building Permit Limitations • Growth Management Ordinances • Impact Fees • Infrastructure Upgrades

  16. Estimating Aggregate Economic Impacts • 2 Models (REMI, RIMS II) • 3 Approaches (Housing Expenditures, Housing Prices, Construction) • Sensitivity Analysis

  17. Results

  18. Average Employment Growth in New Hampshire2001 - 2004

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