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Dan Yakir, Environmental Sciences

Ma Bo’er?. Dan Yakir, Environmental Sciences. Stefan Boltzman’s Law: B (Wm -2 ) =  T 4. Black body temp -62˚C !. Black body temp -18˚C !. Black body temp -42˚C !. CO2 declined over geological time as…. …our current mild climate was shaped. 2 ppm/y vs 100 pm/my X20,000 natural rate !.

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Dan Yakir, Environmental Sciences

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  1. Ma Bo’er? Dan Yakir, Environmental Sciences Davidson |

  2. Davidson |

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  4. Stefan Boltzman’s Law: B (Wm-2)=T4 Davidson |

  5. Black body temp -62˚C ! Black body temp -18˚C ! Black body temp -42˚C ! Davidson |

  6. CO2 declined over geological time as… Davidson |

  7. …our current mild climate was shaped Davidson |

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  10. 2 ppm/y vs 100 pm/my X20,000 natural rate ! Davidson |

  11. 2006 2005 Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions 50-year constant growth rates to 2050 B1 1.1%, A1B 1.7%, A2 1.8% A1FI 2.4% Observed 2000-2006 3.3% Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS Davidson |

  12. 2007 390 380 370 360 Carbon Dioxide Concentration (ppmv) 350 340 330 320 310 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

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  15. The temperature/CO2 sensitivity question 10C /100ppm in Antarctica ~5C/100ppm global ~1C/100ppm IPPC IPCC==> ~3C in a century Davidson |

  16. 1992 2005 2003-2005 Davidson |

  17. 2005 Larsen Ice shelf collapse Davidson |

  18. 2005 Larsen Ice shelf collapse Davidson |

  19. McCarty Glacier, Alaska Davidson |

  20. Sea-level rise

  21. ~ 6 m sea level Greenland = West Antarctica = ~ 6 m sea level Total for 6m rise = ~235milion people Davidson |

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  23. Florida’s coast if Greenland OR the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Melted

  24. Question of timing… Beetle “fire”… Alaska beach, 2107? Davidson |

  25. The turnover time issue: fast in, slow out… (of the atmosphere) 500 ppm CO2 = Different planet Decay of pulse CO2: 100 years => 33% 500 years => 22% 1000 years => 19% Davidson |

  26. Ma Bo’er? 500 ppm CO2 = Different planet ! Decay of pulse CO2: 100 years => 33% 500 years => 22% 1000 years => 19% Davidson |

  27. The current budget: 50% discount: Things can move much faster… 8.3 = Emission 4.0 + Atmosphere 1.9 + Ocean 2.4 Land All in billion tons of carbon (Gt C or 1015 g C) Davidson |

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  29. Fluxnet: A global project: Dry sites, such as Yatir, are greatly under represented in the network… Davidson |

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  31. The Yatir Forest Davidson |

  32. Rain (mm)Carbon (t/ha) Yatir forest: 290 2.3 (up to 3.5) Fluxnet (global): ~800 (500-2000) 2.6 t/ha Davidson |

  33. 13C derived WUE: feedback from high CO2 ? ~25% increase in WUE, in dry sites Davidson |

  34. Tree rings Back in the lab Running the show Ecophysiology Pioneer Below ground… Stable isotopes Where is the water Peace of mind The microbes and the N ISF, EU, BMBF, MOE, KKL… Davidson |

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  37. … No escape Davidson |

  38. What can you do?

  39. Net radiometer top SWRtop  LWRtop  PARt PARtop SWRtop  PARtop  Diffuse radiation Davidson |

  40. Coral bleaching Habitat loss Species extinction Davidson |

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