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BRIC NATIONS

Prof. Hersh Chadha OPM (Harvard) ARPS. BRIC NATIONS. BRAZIL, RUSSIA, CHINA AND INDIA FORM THE SO-CALLED BRIC GROUP OF EMERGING POWERS. THE TERM BRIC WAS COINED BY U.S. INVESTMENT BANK, GOLDMAN SACHS, IN 2001.

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BRIC NATIONS

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  1. Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS BRIC NATIONS BRAZIL, RUSSIA, CHINA AND INDIA FORM THE SO-CALLED BRIC GROUP OF EMERGING POWERS. THE TERM BRIC WAS COINED BY U.S. INVESTMENT BANK, GOLDMAN SACHS, IN 2001. BRIC HAS GAINED CLOUT ON THE GLOBAL STAGE IN THE PAST DECADE AS THEIR ECONOMIES GREW FASTER THAN THOSE OF THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. IN 2008, BRIC ACCOUNTED FOR 22% OF WORLD ECONOMY, UP FROM 16% A DECADE EARLIER.

  2. Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS GDP OF BRIC COUNTRIES

  3. Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS BRAZIL • SIZE 8.5 M SQ. KMS • POPULATION 190 MILLION • POVERTY (% OF POPULATION) 2001 46.7% 2008 30.3% CHANGE 16.4% AGRICULTURAL AND MINING POWERHOUSE. EXPECTED TO BECOME MAJOR WORLD PLAYER IN WORLD ENERGY MARKET, HAVING FOUND HUGE DEEP-SEA OIL RESERVES.

  4. Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS RUSSIA • SIZE 17M SQ. KMS • POPULATION 143 MILLION • POVERTY (% OF POPULATION) 2001 27.5% 2008 13.0% CHANGE 14.5% WORLD’S SECOND LARGEST OIL EXPORTER, BUT FALL IN OIL PRICES COULD TRIGGER WORST RECESSION IN AT LEAST A DECADE, CONTRACTING GDP BY AN EXPECTED 6% IN 2009.

  5. Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS INDIA • SIZE 3.3M SQ. KMS • POPULATION 1100 MILLION • POVERTY (% OF POPULATION) 2001 27.5% 2008 21.8.0% CHANGE 5.7% VAST DOMESTIC MARKET PUTS IT ON THE TRACK FOR GROWTH THIS YEAR. FACES POTENTIAL TROUBLE FROM DOMESTIC MILITANT GROUPS AND A LONG RUNNING BORDER DISPUTE WITH PAKISTAN.

  6. Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS CHINA • SIZE 9.6M SQ. KMS • POPULATION 1300 MILLION • POVERTY (% OF POPULATION) 2001 16% 2008 4% CHANGE 12% A GLOBAL MANUFACTURING HUB, HELD $727 BILLION IN U.S. TREASURIES AT YEAR-END 2008. ESTIMATED TWO-THIRDS OF ITS ROUGHLY $2 TRILLION IN FOREIGN RESERVES PARKED IN DOLLAR ASSETS.

  7. Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS Contrary to common conceptions that emerging markets have fairly small, illiquid and volatile financial markets, Brazil actually has a larger market than Australia. With 4% growth, India is. performing well not just in textiles and cheap electronics but in shipbuilding, chemicals, steel and communications as well Brazil On a purchasing power parity basis, Russia’s GDP is larger than the UK’s; China’s is larger than Japan’s and India’s is larger than Germany’s. India The Chinese automobile market has already surpassed the US market, whereas only 3 years ago, it was at 50%. China Russia

  8. Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS INDIA – WORLD’S FIRST SOFT SUPERPOWER U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE, HILLARY CLINTON, MADE THE FOLLOWING COMMENTS: • “ I CONSIDER INDIA NOT JUST A REGIONAL POWER BUT A GLOBAL POWER. ” • “ INDIA IS POISED FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH AND GLOBAL PEACE. IT IS POISED TO BECOME A MORE POWERFUL NATION. ”

  9. THIS IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT THE GOVERNMENTS WHO HAVE PUMPED SO MUCH MONEY INTO THEIR FINANCIAL SYSTEMS CANNOT LAST LONG ENOUGH TILL THE SIGNS OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND THEIR TIMING TO ADJUST THESE FISCAL PACKAGES WITH THE ECONOMIC RISE IS A TRICKY QUESTION FOR THEM AS THE GLOBALISATION OF MONEY AND ITS IMPACT AFFECTS US ALL WORLDWIDE. Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS “W’ SHAPED RECESSION THE GREAT RECESSION IS MOVING MORE TOWARDS A “W” AND NOT A “V” OR “U” SHAPE.

  10. Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS Gossip Slide 1 of 2 In ancient Greece (469 - 399 BC), Socrates was widely lauded for his wisdom.     One day the great philosopher came upon an acquaintance who ran up to him excitedly and said, "Socrates, do you know what I just heard about one of your students?"   Wait a moment," Socrates replied. "Before you tell me I'd like you to pass a little test. It's called the Triple Filter Test."     "Triple filter?“   "That's right," Socrates continued. "Before you talk to me about my student let's take a moment to filter what you're going to say. The first filter is Truth. Have you made absolutely sure that what you are about to tell me is true?“ "No," the man said, "actually I just heard about it and..." 

  11. Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS Gossip Slide 2 of 2   "All right," said Socrates. "So you don't really know if it's true or not. Now let's try the second filter, the filter of Goodness. Is what you are about to tell me about my student something good?" "No, on the contrary..."   "So," Socrates continued, "you want to tell me something bad about him, even though you're not certain it's true?"   The man shrugged, a little embarrassed.     Socrates continued. "You may still pass the test though, because there is a third filter - the filter of Usefulness. Is what you want to tell me about my student going to be useful to me?"   "No, not really..."     "Well," concluded Socrates, "if what you want to tell me is neither True nor Good nor even Useful, why tell it to me at all?" …..   This is the reason Socrates was a great philosopher and held in such high esteem.  

  12. Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS Q & A Session hersh@eim.ae ww.hershchadha.com

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