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The Economy in 2009 and Beyond: A Forecast for the Washington Area

This report provides an analysis of the current economic conditions and forecasts for the Washington Area in 2009 and beyond. It includes data on GDP, employment, housing trends, consumer confidence, and more.

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The Economy in 2009 and Beyond: A Forecast for the Washington Area

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  1. Design Build Institute of America The Economy in 2009 and Beyond Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair and University ProfessorDirector, Center for Regional AnalysisSchool of Public Policy, George Mason University January 26, 2009

  2. U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2011 % Forecast > > > > > > > > > > > 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Global Insight

  3. GDP Percent Change(Real Dollars) %

  4. CURRENT CONDITIONS

  5. ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Non-Mfg Mfg

  6. Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US THOUSANDS Dec = - 2.81 Mil Source: BLS Establishment Survey

  7. U.S. Unemployment Rate % Dec = 7.2 % Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted

  8. Housing Trends:New & Existing Home Sales (000s) (000s) Existing (left scale) New (Rt Scale)

  9. Consumer Confidence Present Situation 100 Expectations Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  10. Growth in Total Consumption Outlays % Source: Global Insight, January 2008, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  11. The Washington Economy

  12. US GDP and Washington GRP % Washington GRP US GDP

  13. U.S and Washington Area Recent Recessions

  14. 2009 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 11.8 % Other Federal 17.9 % Federal 33.3% Procurement 15.4% Local Business 38.9% Assn 2.2% Hosp. 2.0% Int’l 4.8% Other 7.0% Other: Health/Education, Media, Lobbyists

  15. Annual Change in Jobs1991 – 2007Washington Metro Thousands Avg = 46,600 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  16. Annual Job ChangeWashington Metro Area 000s Annual Change Annual Month-over-the-Year 2007 2008 46.6 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  17. 15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Nov. 07– Nov. 08 Thousands Washington + 31,100 Ranked by Total Jobs

  18. Percent Change in Jobs By Sector U.S and Washington MSA Last 12 Months % Source: BLS and GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  19. Unemployment Rate % U.S. Washington Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

  20. 15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment RateNovember 2008 % U.S. 6.5 4.4 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Data not seasonally adjusted

  21. Sales and Total Active ListingsWashington MSA, December Each Year 1000s Listings Sales

  22. Units Sold Percent ChangeBy SubregionAll Housing Types % 2007 2008 NVA MSA SMD DC Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  23. Housing Price Index Trends U.S. and Washington Metro Area Both Series Indexed to 1976 = 100 Conforming Loans Only Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (OFHEO) and GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  24. Average Sales Price All Housing TypesWashington Metro $ + 8.0 %/year Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  25. Annual Price Changes by Jurisdiction Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  26. Metro Comparisons Mortgage Foreclosure RatesQ3 - 2008 Foreclosures /10,000 Owner-Occupied Units Source: RealtyTrac, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  27. Mortgage Foreclosure Ratesby County – Jan 08 & Jan 09 Foreclosures /10,000 units Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Source: RealtyTrac, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  28. Outlook

  29. Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2013Washington Area and Sub-state Portions(Annual % Change) % NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  30. Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s) Average Annual Change 1990-2007 = 46,600 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  31. GDP/GRP 2000 - 2012 % Washington U.S. Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  32. www.cra-gmu.org

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