BAB 1 IMBANGAN PEMBAYARAN (BALANCE OF PAYMENT)

1. BAB 1IMBANGAN PEMBAYARAN(BALANCE OF PAYMENT) .

2. Balance of Payments Accounting • To understand how economists measure international transactions in the real and financial sectors of an economy, and how these sectors are linked, we turn to the balance of payments (BOP) accounting system. • A system of accounts which is a subset of the National Income and Production Accounts

3. Definisi IP • Catatan sistematik kesemua transaksi ekonomi antara pemastautin negara berkenaan dengan pesmastautin negara lain. • Petunjuk secara luar ekonomi sesebuah negara, juga memberi gambaran tentang keteguhan ekonomi sesebuah negara.

4. Aspek Penting IP Pemastautin • Sesebuah negara - terdiri daripada rakyat ,firma berdaftar ,agensi kerajaan serta firma milik rakyat tempatan yang berdaftar di luar negara. • Negara lain - terdiri daripada firma luar, kakitangan luar, pekerja luar, pelancong, firma asing yang berdaftar di sesebuah negara dll.

5. ii. Urusniaga Ekonomi - semua jenis pertukaran yang melibatkan nilai (beli barang )dan hak milik (spt. pemberian hadiah ) antara pemastautin 2 negara . - pertukaran boleh berlaku antara barang dengan wang, barang dengan barang dan barang dengan jasa baik.

6. Tempoh - Satu tahun /suku tahun

7. Akaun IP • A double-entry system (catatan beregu) • Debit Entries: • Transactions that generate a payment outflow (e.g., import) • Urusan yang berkaitan dengan pembelian barangan dan perkhidmatan serta set kewangan • Dicatat dengan tanda negatif - Contoh: Sekiranya Malaysia mengimport barang dari US maka Malaysia perlu membayar kepada US

8. Credit Entries: • Transactions that generate a payment inflow (e.g., export). • Merupakan penerimaan hasil daripada jualan barang dan perkhidmatan serta aset kewangan • Dicatat dengan tanda positif Contoh: Sekiranya Malaysia mengeksport barang ke US maka Malaysia menerima bayaran

9. Berdasarkan kepada prinsip catatan beregu (double entry system) makasebarang transaksi yang menyebabkan kemasukan kredit perlu dioffset dengan kemasukan debit dan sebaliknya. • Contoh: Malaysia mengeksport getah ke US yang bernilai RM50,000. Kredit: Eksport Getah RM50,000 Debit: Bayaran diterima olh Malaysia -RM50,000

10. Balance of Payments Accounts i. Current Account (Akaun Semasa) • The current account is the broadest measure of a nation’s real sector trade. • Iaitu mengukur aliran barang, perkhidmatan, pendapatan dan pindahan antara rakyat, firma dan kerajaan negara domestik dengan negara lain di dunia.

11. Terdiri daripada 4 kategori asas, iaitu: • Goods (barangan) • Services (perkhidmatan) • Income Receipts and Payments (penerimaan dan pembayaran pendapatan) • Unilateral Transfers (bayaran [indahan)

12. Goods (barangan) • Meliputi eksport dan import barangan fizikal atau barang nampak (tangible good) • Cth: perdagangan dalam makanan, barangan industri,, barangan modal, barangan pengguna dsb. • Eksport – kt barangan - payment from abroad • Import – dt barangan – payment made abroad • Imbangan barangan nampak – imbangan akaun dagangan • Merupakan ukuran paling tepat kerana melibatkan barangan nampak di mana di kebanyakan negara perlu didaftarkan dengan kastam

13. Services (Perkhidmatan) • Meliputi eksport dan import perkhidmatan spt perkhidmatan pengangkutan, pelancongan dan pelbagai perkhidmatan lain spt insurans, telefon, rundingcara dsb. • Bayaran, royalti atau yuran di terima dr asing di catat sbg kt perkhidmatan -- x • Bayaran, royalti atau yuran di bayar kepada asing di catat sbg dt perkhidmatan – m • Import dan eksport perkhidmatan adakah sukar diukur kerana ianya tidak didaftarkan pada kastam.

14. Current Account • Income • Iaitu bayaran bunga dan dividen kepada residen dan kerajaan negara asing yang memegang aset kewangan domestik – butiran dt (m) • Meliputi juga bayaran yang diterima oleh residen dan kerajaan domestik yang memegang aset kewangan di negara asing --- butiran kredit (x) • Cth: Penduduk Malaysia menerima bayaran bunga bagi bil perbendaharaan US

15. Current Account • Income Receipts: Includes items such as • Investment income on US-owned assets abroad. • Receipts of income on US direct investment abroad. • Government income receipts • Income Payments: Includes items such as • Investment income on foreign-owned assets in the United States. • Payments of income on foreign direct investment in the United States • US Government income payments

16. Current Account • Unilateral Transfers: Includes items such as: • Melibatkan pindahan antarabngsa atau hadiah antara individu dan kerajaan • Tidak melibatkan bayaran masuk atau keluar tetapi negara berkenaan mengharapkan aliran muhibah (goodwill) antara negara yang terlibat. • Contoh: bantuan ubat-ubatan yang diberikan oleh Malaysia kepada mangsa tsunami. • Transaksi ini dicatat sebagai kredit eksport tetapi Malaysia tidak mengharapkan bayaran bagi eksport ini. Manakala catatan debit adalah dalam kategori bayaran pindahan iaitu seolah-olah Malaysia mengimport muhibah daripada negara asing.

17. Imbangan Akaun Semasa • The current account balance is the sum of the debit and credit entries in the accounts just described. • CA = Balance on Good & Services + Income + Unilateral Transfer • CA defisit : Debit > Kredit • CA surplus : Kredit > Debit

18. Malaysia Current Account (2006)

19. Balance of PaymentsThe Financial Sector • The Capital and Financial Account tabulates the flows of financial assets between domestic residents and foreign residents and governments. • The private capital account tabulates flows among private domestic residents and foreign private residents.

20. The Capital Account • The Capital and financial Account: • Records international transactions in the financial sector. • The main accounts are: • US-Owned Assets Abroad: Increase or decrease in US ownership of foreign financial assets. • Foreign-Owned Assets in the US: Increase or decrease in foreign ownership of domestic assets. • Reserve Assets: Primarily the assets of central banks.

21. Private capital account • measure the outflow of domestics assets abroad and the inflow of foreign assets in domestic country • Includes transaction of private domestic financial assets and foreign financial assets • Financial assets include physical assets and financial assets such as bonds, bills, stocks and currencies.

22. Private capital account tabulates two type of assets flow: • Investment flows • Changes in banks’ and brokers’ cash deposits that arise from international transactions.

23. Portfolio and Foreign Direct Investment Type of capital inflow: • Portfolio Investment: Individual or business purchase of stocks, bond, or other financial assets or deposits. (An income strategy) • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Purchase of financial assets that results in a 10 percent or greater ownership share. (A financial control strategy)

24. Capital and Financial Account

25. The Balance of PaymentsThe Statistical Discrepancy • The sum of the debit and credit entries in all of the BOP should total zero. • Of course there are errors and omissions resulting in a non-zero balance. • An offsetting entry to this non-zero balance is made in the statistical discrepancy account. • In this way, the total of the debit and credit entries equals zero.

26. THE OFFICIAL SETTLEMENT BALANCE • Measures the transactions of financial assets and deposits by official government agencies (central bank and finance ministries or treasuries of national government) • Official assets including SDR, gold and foreign currencies

27. Deficits and Surpluses in BOP • A BOP equilibrium, ignoring a statistical discrepancy, arises when the sum of the debits and credits in the current account and the private account equal zero, so that the official settlements balance is zero. A BOP deficit corresponds to a positive official settlement balance and a BOP surplus corresponds to a negative official settlements balance.

28. Nilai Imbangan Pembayaran • Jumlah kt = dt 0 – BOP seimbang.Jumlah kt > dt 0 – BOP surplus.Jumlah kt < dt = 0 – BOP defisit.

29. BOP ExamplesU.S. company imports an automobile valued at $50,000

30. BOP ExamplesU.S. government sends $1 million in humanitarian supplies to Afghanistan

31. BOP ExamplesU.S. resident buys a UK Tbill equivalent in value to $1,000

32. BOP ExamplesU.S. resident receives $100 in interest on a foreign asset they own

33. BOP ExamplesA Marquette University student goes to Mexico on break and spends $500

34. BOP ExamplesTotal

35. Net Creditor and Net Debtor Status • A net creditor is a nation whose total claims on foreign residents exceed the total claims of foreign residents on the residents of the domestic nation. • A net debtor is a nation whose total claims on foreign residents are less than the total claims of foreign residents on the residents of the domestic nation. • It is not necessarily good nor bad to be either a net debtor or net creditor.

36. The Relationship Between the Current Account and the Capital Account • Expenditures Approach to National Income • National income is the sum of expenditures in the following categories; consumer expenditures, private investment expenditures, government expenditures, and net export expenditures, y= c + ip + g + (x-m) • Let the current account, ca equal ca = (x – m) • Then y=c + ip + g + ca

37. The Relationship Between the Current Account and the Capital Account • Income Approach • Income has three possible uses; it can be spent on current consumption, it can be saved (private saving), and we pay taxes to the government y= c + sp + t • Because both approaches equal national income, we can set the two identities equal: c + sp + t = c +ip + g + ca • or, sp – ip – (g - t) = ca

38. The Relationship Between the Current Account and the Capital Account • Private Saving • Private saving can be used to purchase three types of assets, domestic private investment, government debt (g – t) or to accumulate foreign assets (fa), sp = ip + (g – t) + fa • where fa is the (net) accumulation of foreign assets (domestic residents’ purchases of foreign assets in excess of foreign residents’ purchases of domestic assets). • Then, by rearrangement sp – ip – (g – t) = fa

39. The Relationship Between the Current Account and the Capital Account • Putting the two together: ca = sp – ip – (g – t) = fa • In words, private domestic saving less private domestic investment less the fiscal balance (government saving) equals the current account balance, which also equals the (net) accumulation of foreign assets.

40. An Example of the Relationship Between the Current Account and the Capital Account • Using the equality we derived, ca = sp – ip – (g – t) = fa • Suppose a nation’s private saving rate is 5.2 percent of its total output, its private investment rate is 7.3 percent, and its fiscal budget deficit is 3.3 percent ca = fa = 5.2 – 7.3 – 3.3 = -5.4. • In words, this nation’s residents must borrow from abroad (fa = -5.4) to finance their investment expenditures, resulting in a current account deficit in the amount of 5.4 percent of total output.