World supply and demand of tilapia

1. World supply and demand of tilapia Helga Josupeit Rome INFOFISH Tilapia Conference, Kuala Lumpur, October 2010

2. Outline • world production • world exports, • with special emphasis on China • world imports • with special emphasis on the US market • Forecast for 2015 • Summary

3. World tilapia production

4. Tilapia production by major countries

5. World tilapia production by species

6. Tilapia Aquaculture production (2008, by region, in tonnes) 9000 1200000 430000 130000 900000 150000 2008

7. Aquaculture production (2000 versus 2008, by region, in tonnes) 1200000 9000 130000 430000 900000 2008 150000 2000

8. Trade flow, China 2009 (in tonnes) 22000 134000 18800 6600 36000 20000 Total Chinese tilapia exports: 259 000 tonnes

9. Chinese tilapia exports

10. Trade flow estimates, excluding China 2009 (in tonnes) 12700 2000 15500 9300 10000 Total tilapia exports excluding China : 40 000 tonnes

11. Trade flow estimates 2006-2009 comparison (in tonnes) 104000 170000 USA, Canada and Mexico 5000 40000 (Russia + EU) 12400 21500 1000 2000 1000 20 12700 15500 500 1 12000 8000 10000 9300 2006 2009

12. Trade flow estimates 2009 (in tonnes) increase by 70% huge increase sharp decline double disappeared stable disappeared moderate increase sharp decline 2006 2009

13. Import estimates 2009 (in tonnes, product weight) 22000 21000 183000 7000 40000 20000 1000

14. US tilapia imports 1000 tonnes

15. US tilapia imports

16. Frozen tilapia fillets in the US wholesale market (US$/lb)

17. Fresh tilapia fillets in the US wholesale market (US$/lb)

18. Supply estimates 2009 (in tonnes, liveweight equivalent) 66000 500000 56000 480000 21000 12000 950000 190000 945000 130000 7000

19. Past Supply trends supply growing imports growing, all supply from imports more than half of production goes to exports, production stabilizes supply limited imports stable, all supply from imports imports growing domestic production stagnant, one third of supply from imports production growing strongly, mainly for domestic market production growing, almost no exports, limited imports supply mainly from domestic production, which is growing, exports declining some small imports

20. Tilapia forecast – scenario 1:no further growth in China 2015: 4.6 million tonnes forecast

21. Tilapia forecast – scenario 2:growth in China 2015: 5 million tonnes forecast

22. Supply trends – 2015 supply stable imports stable, all supply from imports more than half of production goes to exports, production stabilizes supply limited imports declining, all supply from imports imports stable domestic production stagnant, half of supply from imports production growing strongly, mainly for domestic market production growing, almost no exports, limited imports supply mainly from domestic production, which is growing, exports almost nil some small imports Overall: supply in developed countries will stabilize, increased production all for Asian and Latin American market

23. World tilapia exports • Trade relatively unimportant, but expanding • Total world trade can be estimated at 300 000 MT (product weight), which is double the figure of only three years ago • China by far main exporter. accounting for almost 90% of total exports • Share of China in total trade growing

24. Outlook for tilapia supply • Supply continues to expand, especially in South East Asia • Some increases in Latin America • China will increase presence on market, especially targeting Europe • However, the production in China likely to stabilize • More value addition in developing countries • Investment by foreign companies in tilapia farms

25. Outlook for tilapia demand • Demand is strong and growing in the USA • Very good market in Latin America • Demand in Europe still slow, and as the market is well supplied with pangasius and Nile perch, unlikely that there will be a strong growth • Demand in South East strong, and supplied by domestic and regional trade

26. Thank you for your kind attention