Presented by: Chris Noble, Ron Mahabir , Jared Silk & Drake Daughdrill GGS 684—Select Topics in Geospatial Intelli

1. Presented by: Chris Noble, Ron Mahabir, Jared Silk & Drake Daughdrill GGS 684—Select Topics in Geospatial Intelligence SOUTH AMERICA 2025

2. Overview • South America • 390 million population • 19 countries • Major exports: • petroleum, coffee, copper, bauxite, fish meal, and oilseed • Key issues: • Demographics • Forestry • Energy • Crime, corruption, and narcotics

3. Demographics

4. Demographics

5. Demographics Infant mortality rate (deaths/1,000 births) • Key themes • Public health (↑) • Age (↑) • Economics (↓) • Education (↑) • Key countries • Brazil (↑) • Argentina (↑) • Key uncertainties Brazil Population below poverty (percent) Brazil

6. Forestry Key Certainties Key Uncertainties Source:Interweb, Undated Source: David, 2010 Source: PLU , Undated

7. Distribution of World Forests Source: Britannica 2000

8. Driving Forces: 2025… Main factors • Influenced by the pace of economic diversification and changes in land dependence. • Increasing urbanization • Increase in population Auxiliary • Continuing global demand for wood and wood products. • Carbon sequestration • Biodiversity Source: OWU 2010 Source: Sohngen et. al. 2008

9. GeoInt • Satellite imagery • Datasets indicating development • Distribution and number of: • Forest fires • Net GDP • Direct, indirect, and induced employment • Forest type, age • Reforestation areas • Change statistics • Conservation policies and indicators of change • Investments

10. Energy

11. Energy Resources in South America • Oil (O) • Venezuela - 2.5 million bbl/day (2.2) • Ecuador - 0.5 million bbl/day (0.3) • Brazil - 2.6 million bbl/day (0.6) • Natural Gas (G) • Bolivia – top natural gas exporter in South America (1% of world exports) • Ethanol (E) • Brazil - 2nd largest producer of ethanol in the world at 36% (US at 53%) Source: The World Factbook 2011

12. Brazil: The Next Big Oil Exporter? • Potential of huge oil reserves off shore • How much? • Tupi: 10’s of billions of barrels of oil • Brazil: Top 10 oil reserves in the world • Increase of 40% • How long to access these reserves? • Located in deep water and could take years to extract • Could there be more? • Half of all of Brazil’s oil reserves have been discovered in the past 10 years Source: Oil & Shale Gas Discovery News

13. Potential Outcomes • Experiences a more rapid economic growth • Accelerates its rise as a major world player • Increases its importance in US relations • Offset our need on middle east oil • Leads to increase of crime and corruption

14. Drugs, insurgency & crime Source (edited L to R): World News Review, Thomas Fortenberry blog, las tribus urbanas blog

15. Source: Congressional Research Service, 2011 Major drug routes in Lat. Am. • Trafficking via W. Africa to Europe increasing • Via Mexico & Caribbean to U.S. trend slightly increases • Cartels using more sophisticated smuggling means • used jets • mini-subs • Criminal & terrorist ties in U.S., Lat. Am. & N. Africa increasing

16. Coca production trending up • Counter drug ops in Columbia provide opportunity to others • Peru & Bolivia supply trending regional to international (U.S. & N. Africa) • Peru & Bolivia trend toward Columbian level Source: stopthedrugwar.com, 2010

17. Geoint • Correlation of supply chains to demand curves • Money • Drugs • Weapons • Persons of interest • Datasets indicating: • Violence (criminal & terrorist) • Currency abnormalities (xfers, banking actions, seizures) • Distribution and number of: • Arrests vs. Prosecutions (cartels, corrupt officials) • Seizures (drugs, money, weapons) • Coca production operations • Violent crimes (drug or terrorist related) • Effects of narco “crack down” policies (U.S. & partners)

18. References • BBC News: “Brazil Announces New Oil Reserves”. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7086264.stm (Last updated on November 9, 2007) (Last accessed March 3, 2011) • Boston University (Undated) Pardee Center Task Force: Latin America 2060. Available online at: http://www.bu.edu/pardee/research/latin-america-2060/. (Last accessed on February 26, 2010) • Britannica (2000) Forests: Distribution of the World’s Forest. Available online at: http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/media/56196/Interactive-map-showing-the-geographic-distribution-of-the-worlds-forests (Last accessed on February 24, 2010) • Central Intelligence Agency: “The World Factbook 2011”. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html (Last accessed March 2, 2011) • Congressional Research Service. “Latin American and the Caribbean: Illicit Drug Trafficking and U.S. Counterdrug Programs”. Drug routes map (image). Page 3. January 25, 2011. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41215.pdf. (Last accessed February 25, 2011) • Council on Foreign Relations: “Energy Bottlenecks in South America”. http://www.cfr.org/energy/energy-bottlenecks-south-america/p16037 (Last accessed March 3, 2011) • David, G. (2010) Deforestation. Available online at: http://www.dangerouscreation.com/2010/10/man-the-destroyer/deforestation/ (Last accessed on February 27, 2010)\ • Las tribusurbanas blog. “The latin kings”. 3 Latin Kings (image). February 3, 2010. http://www.worldnewsreviews.com/world-news/europe/spanish-authorities-confiscate-the-largest-and-most-sophisticated-cocaine-lab.html. (Last accessed February 23, 2011) • FAO (2009) State of the World Forests 2009. Food and Agriculture Organization, United Nations, Italy, Rome. • Interweb (Undated). Walpapers. Available online at: http://www.interweb.in/pc-wallpapers/18884-nature-wallpaper-2.html (Last accessed on February 27, 2010)

19. References • NIC (2008) Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. National Intelligence Council, USA, Washington, D.C. • Michael Reid. The Economist. “So near and yet so far”. GDP per PPP (map). September 9, 2010. http://www.economist.com/node/16964114?Story_ID=16964114&fsrc=nlw|hig|09-09-2010|editors_highlights. (last accessed February 25, 2011) • Oil & Shale Gas Discovery News: Brazil Tupi Oil Field Information. (Image) http://oilshalegas.com/braziltupioil.html • OWU (2010) Breakfast of Biodiversity, Available online at: http://environmentalgeography.wordpress.com/2010/03/page/3/ (Last updated on March 24, 2010) • Phillip Smith. stopthedrugwar.com. “Latin America: Peru Ousts Colombia as World's Largest Coca Producer, UNODC Says”. Coca production (graph). June 24, 2010. http://stopthedrugwar.org/chronicle/2010/jun/25/latin_america_peru_ousts_colombi. (last accessed February 27, 2011) • PLU (Undated) Deforestation. Pacific Lutheran University, Available online at: http://www.plu.edu/~hoodbs/deforestation/home.html (Last accessed on February 27, 2010) • Sohngen, B., Beach, B. and Andrasko, K. (2008) Avoided Deforestation as a Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Tool: Economic Issues. Journal of Environmental Quality, 37(4), pgs 1368:1375 • Thomas Fortenberry blog. “Calm the FARC Down”. Female FARC soldier (image). March 10, 2008. http://thomasfortenberry.net/?p=2023. (last accessed February 22, 2011) • Vivirlatino blog. “FARC Says Hostage Release Must Have International Witnesses”. FARC flag (image). January 8, 2009 http://vivirlatino.com/2009/01/08/farc-says-hostage-release-must-have-international-witnesses.php. (Last accessed February 23, 2011) • World News Reviews. “Spanish Authorities Confiscate The ‘Largest and Most Sophisticated’ Cocaine Lab”. Packaged cocaine seizure (image). http://www.worldnewsreviews.com/world-news/europe/spanish-authorities-confiscate-the-largest-and-most-sophisticated-cocaine-lab.html. No date. (Last accessed February 27, 2011)