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CCP: GR-RI 04/CRS.5

Cereals and Other Starch Based Staples: are consumption patterns changing?. Joint Meeting of the 30th Session of the Intergovernmental Group on Grains and the 41st Session of the Intergovernmental Group on Rice Rome 10-11 February 2004. CCP: GR-RI 04/CRS.5. O U T L I N E.

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CCP: GR-RI 04/CRS.5

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  1. Cereals and Other Starch Based Staples: are consumption patterns changing? Joint Meeting of the 30th Session of the Intergovernmental Group on Grains and the 41st Session of the Intergovernmental Group on Rice Rome 10-11 February 2004 CCP: GR-RI 04/CRS.5

  2. O U T L I N E • Introduction, Data and Methods • Changes in dietary structures • Importance of Cereals, Roots and Tubers, Bananas and Plantains (CRBP) in daily diets • Convergence and diversification in global CRBP consumption patterns • The main forces driving change • Policy Implications

  3. Comparison of Dietary Structures in Developed …

  4. ... and Developing Countries - Structures diverse, but for both groups strong growth in oils and livestock products …however, CRBP foods in decline

  5. Variation in Dietary Patterns - Consumption patterns in South and East Asian countries most variable. Least variable in developed countries – saturation?

  6. Relationship Between Dietary Shares and Total Calorie Intake - A 1% increase in calorie intake results in falls in dietary shares of CRBP (-0.74%) and pulses (-0.55)

  7. Calorie Intake & Dietary Shares of CRBP staples in Developing Countries - Since the 1970s CRBP shares in developing countries have fallen rapidly…

  8. Calorie Intake & Dietary Shares of CRBP staples in Developed Countries - …but remain well above developed country shareswhich have stabilized

  9. Declines in Total Dietary Shares of CRBP Foods: 5% or more - CRBP staples remain important food security crops, especially Africa

  10. Declines in Total Dietary Shares of CRBP Foods: 10% or more Have dietary shares of all CRBP products fallen?

  11. Increases in Wheat Shares: 5% or more (1961-2001) Wheat consumption has increased in many developing countries

  12. Increases in Rice Shares: 5% or more (1961-2001) Growth in rice consumption less pronounced and more regionally concentrated, esp. West Africa, Latin America, SE Asia

  13. CRBP Structures: 1961/63 In the past, structures dominated by single CRBP foodstuffs – 6 distinct structures identified

  14. CRBP Structures : 1999/2001 Now, structures diversified: dominated by wheat and rice. Evidence of convergence: 4 distinct structures identified. Handful of countries unchanged since 1961

  15. Factors Driving CRBP Patterns • URBANIZATION  • INCOME  • IMPORTS x • PREFERENCE SHIFTS () • RELATIVE PRICES ??

  16. POLICY IMPLICATIONS • According to UN estimates, the world’s urban population is expected to increase by 70 percent over the next three decades:  Promote production of wheat and rice or accept increasing reliance on imports?  Promote processing of those CRBP products that have witnessed falling demand?

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