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Climate Applications and Agriculture: CGIAR Efforts, Capacities and Partner Opportunities

Climate Applications and Agriculture: CGIAR Efforts, Capacities and Partner Opportunities. Statistical downscaling of GCM rainfall prediction – observed rainfall in two regions. Results of farmers’ participatory cropping decisions based on climate prediction. Anantapur region

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Climate Applications and Agriculture: CGIAR Efforts, Capacities and Partner Opportunities

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  1. Climate Applications and Agriculture: CGIAR Efforts, Capacities and Partner Opportunities

  2. Statistical downscaling of GCM rainfall prediction – observed rainfall in two regions

  3. Results of farmers’ participatory cropping decisions based on climate prediction • Anantapur region • Crop management decisions were based on climate, and revolved around peanut sole or intercrop systems • Rainfall prediction failed in JAS months with low rainfall • Kurnool region • Crop management decisions based on climate prediction by 1/3 of the farmers • Rest based decisions on crop rotation and commodity market prices • Farmers achieved higher productivity with intercrop systems (>50%) than either sequential double cropping or post rainy season sole crop, due to terminal stress.

  4. Potential benefits from forecast based farming in Kenya

  5. Gap in potential and achievable yields with forecast based farming in normal to above normal seasons – Katumani, Kenya

  6. Predicting Global Warming Effects Global maize production could fall 10%, especially harming developing countries and the poor, according to CIAT and ILRI scientists

  7. Period 1 Decisions Period 2 Decisions Period 3 Decisions Pre-plantingPlantingWeeding and intercropping Fertilizer-Phos Plant Millet – Early or Late Fertilize-Nitrogen Buy/Sell Livestock Fertilizer-Phosphorus/Nitrogen Transplant rice Plant rice nursery Buy/Sell Livestock Plant Cowpea-Density Transplant rice Wage Labor – Buy or Sell Weed millet/rice

  8. Effects of Various Technologies and a Subsidy on Adoption of Fertilizer on a Representative Farm in the Sahelo-Sudanian Zone in Niger

  9. Figure 1: Development Paths of Agricultural Systems in Semi-Arid Areas Rainfall Rainfall limiting to intensification Rainfall conducive to intensification D. Commercial Intensive Specialized (high external inputs E. Commercial Extensive Specialized (low input) cow-calf operations C. Semi-commercial Intensive Integrated (high external inputs) B. Semi-subsistent Extensive Integrated (low external inputs) Access to Markets A. Subsistent Pastoralism and Agropastoralism (low input) Population Pressure

  10. Climate: what is different about West Africa? • There are no such things as climate ‘normals’ in sudano-sahelian West Africa • “What is ‘normal’ to the Sahel is not some […] rainfall total […] but variability of the rainfall supply in space and from year-to-year and from decade-to-decade” (Hulme, 2001)

  11. Climate: what is different about West Africa? Sahel: higher variations on decadal time steps (low frequency) High variability in both cases but… does this mean relatively more risk for an annual crop / farmer in SEA? not necessarily because : Predictability is higher in SEA (both yearly and in the long term) SEA: higher variations on yearly time steps (high frequency) Risk = uncertainty x vulnerability (reproduced from IPCC, 2001)

  12. CG Generation Challenge Program:Participatory Biotechnology Stress microarray Drought

  13. The DDPA Game Plan DESERTIFICATION, DROUGHT, POVERTY, and AGRICULTURE (DDPA)Research Consortium

  14. Spatial distribution of drought vulnerability in West Asia

  15. New Tools to Assess and Monitor Drought and Desertification Difference with average 1999-2001 (%) Southern Africa, March 2002 Drought Index (%)

  16. Improving Knowledge Flows: Community Engagement and New Information Technology

  17. Learning to Learn from Farmers Fakara, Niger

  18. Farmer Perceptions of Drought A DDPA-Sponsored study in Burkina Faso by the Univ. of Wageningen What matters to farmers: how drought affects their food security and livelihoods Conclusion: help farmers make better use of limited rainfall

  19. VASAT -- Virtual Academy for the Semi-Arid Tropics

  20. Village ICT Hub at Addakal, South India • Located in a highly drought-prone area; covers 37 hamlets, 45 000 population (app) • All-women micro-credit federation owns the hub premises; 4500 members • Internet connectivity available; small group of women trained in IT and info-mediation on agri/drought matters • PRA for info needs conducted and updated; regular feedback received • Now acts as informal extension access point

  21. NASHIK AHMEDNAGAR PUNE New program on Drought Preparedness in Maharashtra 30,000 rural youth receiving a 4-hr module on drought literacy for monitoring activities Content from VASAT adopted by Maharashtra Knowledge Corporation Ltd. And Pune Univ.

  22. VASAT Virtual Academy for the Semi-Arid Tropics (Reaching the Un-reached) A community-based distance learning coalition for SSA WITH THE DMP Desert Margins Program

  23. Community Radio Hub in Kahe, Niger • Uses WorldSpace digital satellite radio technology to receive info from the Web • Hosts community radio station covering 50 sq km area • Functional since September 2004

  24. DMP Website www.dmpafrica.net

  25. CGIAR’s assets to institutionalize and further operationalize climate applications • Major repository of dynamic knowledge on GxE (genotype x environment) interactions can be activated to target farmer-friendly biotech interventions for improved management of climate variability and change (CIMMYT, CIP, ICRISAT, IITA, IRRI…) • Existing poverty mapping expertise can be expanded to address climate risk management following the [risk = uncertainty x vulnerability] paradigm, e.g. to determine priority focus regions for applications of climate forecasting (CIAT, IFPRI, ILRI…) • Strong capacity building and ICT/KM capacity can be mobilized to help solve communication bottlenecks linked to user understanding of the abstract, probabilistic nature of forecasts (VASAT, …) • Combination of highly decentralized, network structure and international mandate can help tailor options for local climate management while ensuring standardized, science-based methodologies that allow for regional and global assessments of climate management impacts

  26. Future CG Contributions • Combining indigenous and science-generated knowledge • Advancing knowledge on GxE [genotype x environment] interactions • Building climate science & monitoring capacity • Using ICT4D to communicate climate information to farmers • Combining bio-economic modeling and advanced computing power to improve use and impact of adaptive recommendations • Combining poverty and climate variability mapping [risk = uncertainty x vulnerability] • CG very good at networking

  27. Drought! Not Just ‘Their’ Problem Thank You!

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