Looking ahead…

1. Guy Berger, Rhodes University2-4 February 2006 “The evolution of the media through convergence”. “Dialogue between telecom and media regulation stakeholders in times of convergence: challenges and prospects for Africa”, Cotonou, Benin, Panos Institute West Africa

2. Looking ahead… Scenario thinking: • “We overestimate the changes that will occur in 2 years, but we under-estimate those in 10”.- Pete Rinearson • Eg. CD in 2016?

3. Coming up: • Origins • Converging industries • Device convergence • Production convergence • Money and mergers • Impact on regulation • Policy, law and regulation • Conclusion

4. 1. ORIGINS

5. Currency of a term: • The word arose in the 1990s. • Part of the wave of the Internet • Hype came with $$ signs …& went… • Yet Internet continues to expand. • Some aspects are slowly becoming commmercially sustainable. • Convergence is coming of age.

6. Convergence outgrows the Net • Convergence today is not just about Internet – it impacts on the “old” massmedia. • As convergence grows, stand-alone & single media enterprises will not survive. • = sustainability challenge to a small newspaper or radio stations AND to cumbersome state-owned broadcasters. • Convergence affects ALL media: big/small, old/new, local/global, physical or electronic, profit/public-service, individual/institutional

7. Concept: • Convergence simply means the coming together of formerly separate things. • But: “We are virgins” about “convergence” • The complication is that it covers lots of processes …

8. Foundation & floors Culture Finance Regulation Production+distrib Devices Media sector ICT sector Technology

9. 2. INDUSTRIES CONVERGE

10. 1. Ways of seeing … • Services: Telecoms – voice & data • Media: content on many platforms • Focus: changing core business (eg. Google) • Corporate: mergers and alliances • Devices: fax-copier, camera-phone, phone-pda, PC-TV • Mobile & fixed (note wireless ≠ mobile) • All are due to DIGITALISATION

11. Management Data Networks Broadband Wireless IP PSTN Enterprise Broadcast Voice Content Data Video Converging tech, services, devices Note: Between AND Within Network Laptop Camera Service Mobile Device iPod PDA Credit card Source: Telkom Phone

12. A global network of signals • Convergence means linking and merging in a common, integrated, system… • But it’s NOT 100% seamless – there are different technical standards, languages, cultures, platform strengths. Therefore, differences persist. THUS: • Convergence = patchwork of connections. • NOTE: divergence does not disappear!

13. History: once upon a time

14. Computers infiltrate

15. Internet is born: What was seen as a voice network grew to include data distribution between computers

16. ICT&Telecom business blur • EBay buys Skype • Google also into VOIP

17. Two principles operating Many to Many comms (P2P) begins to emerge Traditionally: 1 to 1 comms

18. The media gets interested ??

19. Media joins the party … internet

20. Adding a different principle many to many comms internet 1 TO MANY = MASS COMMS 1 to 1 comms

21. Using Internet for “new media” TRIO now offers all 3 principles of comms: Eg. TV broadcasters display audience SMS

22. Question? • Media joins the party – but … • As an equal player – or, • As subordinate to the Telcos? Or ICT companies – (eg. Google News)? • Who moves the most? And takes over/on the character of the others in the process?

23. But there’s more … • Prominent in “media” is Broadcasters now transmitting content by telecoms. • This is sending audio & video via cables (wired) on the WWW – streaming or downloadable. NOW: the wireless WWW is fast extending where & when this content can be accessed.

24. And more … • There is also growth in non-WWW wireless publishing via GSM & 3G (SMS, MMS). i.e. It’s convergence, but not IP-based! • Plus there are non-broadcasters pushing “broadcasting” content on telecoms! Individuals, firms, political parties, telco’s… • = Verydifferent from the previously separate worlds of Telecom, IT and Media! • = BIG competition for Satellite!

25. Eg. Vodacom - 3G SA cellphone firm now offering: $2 a day access to MobTV– E! Entertainment, FashionTV, Uefa Champs League, Sky News, Fox, Yebo Entertainment, Mini-soaps (eg. Sunset Hotel). Telkom SA – doing trials on subscrip-tion TV via broadband cables.

26. And yet more … • Besides mobileTV on 3G, there’s also: IPTV (via wired or wireless Internet) • Yet, there is not only Telecoms and Broadcasting convergence … as important as this is. • There’s also convergence within the Media sector – eg. between Print & Broadcast, and Radio & TV. (esp USA)

27. Plus …convergence: • … between real-time transmission (traditional broadcasting) and time-shiftable content (used to be only with tapes, records, newspapers). = (PVRs, Video-on-demand – which kills watershed hour regulation). • … between content push & pull directions (= interactivity) • … between consumers & producers.

28. Digital Camera Computer Scanner Inkjet Printer MP3 Player PDA Cell Phone Home Audio System Cordless Phone Base Station xDSL Access Point What goes at the Centre?

29. Digital Camera Scanner Inkjet Printer MP3 Player PDA Cell Phone Home Audio System Cordless Phone Base Station xDSL Access Point What goes at the Centre? Computer

30. Digital Camera Scanner Inkjet Printer MP3 Player PDA Cell Phone Home Audio System Cordless Phone Base Station xDSL Access Point What goes at the Centre? Computer

31. Digital Camera Scanner Inkjet Printer MP3 Player PDA Cell Phone Home Audio System Cordless Phone Base Station xDSL Access Point The Centre is variable! Computer

32. Viewpoint: Mass media

33. Other new media exploited

34. Print & broadcast blur

35. Dog and tail • Which platform is primary in general? • Who moves towards the other? • Who wags what? • In the whole converged media pack, what platform is top dog? • In a given media company, what is the primary platform? • What when “alien” players intrude? • Do we “protect” old media (PBS, National Telco) – or should they have to compete fairly with others?

36. Summing up: • Telcoms and IT industry create Internet. • Media industry joins the party, mainly with Internet, but also other new ICTs. • Lines within the media industry itself start to blur. • New competitors all-round: (eg. BT to buy ITV?; BSkyB already bought ISP Easynet)

37. 3. DEVICE CONVERGENCE

38. On the consumption side • Questions: • Top connected device: PC or TV? Lean forward or back? • Convergence of Cellphone & Laptop/PDA? • True multi-media converges text, audio, etc. • Will it be “killer app”, killing off mono-media? • Answers: • Devices multi-functional • Divergence survives

39. Web didn’t kill “old media” star • Divergence PLUS Convergence = future

40. There will still be times when: • Solo sound is sought after, • It will be most efficient to communicate with text & still photographs, • Couch potatoes will still want to have unidirectional AV content

41. Looking ahead… • Content may arrive on handhelds, electronic paper, smart TV, PC, fridge, car, clothing … • It may ride on wired or wireless signals, and via Internet or non-IP technologies. • In Africa 2016, volumes of content will come by cellphone: • Consumers increasingly have the device • There is a viable pay model in place – unlike content distributed via the Web.

42. Difference … • New stuff will still fullfil classic functions of radio, TV, print • But: content will be convertible between text, sound & image • And: Some content will be blended as multi-media, where whole is greater than the sum of parts • Plus: Much will be interactive.

43. Movable feast • Devices will offer fixed and mobile access. • Global trends: Σ content, any time, any place … at a price. (What about Universal Service?) • Ubiquity and speed of info will be hallmarks of Info Society.

44. Summing up: • Convergence does not annihilate all differences between devices/platforms, • But it boosts inter-media co-operation: • Old – Old • Old – New • New – Old • Producers – Consumers. • Requires portability & open access. • Multiple platforming ahead.

45. 4. PRODUCTION CONVERGENCE

46. The re-making of media … • Media as a sector: • Distribution convergence: • Content re-purposing • Production convergence: • Database publishing • Multi-skilling • Archiving

47. Organisational: 1

48. Organisational 2

49. Organisational 3

50. Evolutionary levels: • Level one: Media sector sharing content across platforms. • Level two: Media sector sharing production across platforms – with increasing integration of newsrooms. • Level three: Converged ownership?