Today:

1. SOSC 111 - Science, Technology and Society Today: Determining Social Payoff & Social Cost for Projects in the Public Sector: What information is required? Week 4, Lesson 8 Monday, September 21, 1998 Dr. Vincent Duffy - IEEM http://www-ieem.ust.hk/dfaculty/duffy/111 email: vduffy@ust.hk 1

2. Acid raindrops keep falling on my head • Recall: pollution is a secondary result • people didn’t think the introduction of the automobile, for example, would lead to pollution • social cost • includes costs associated with • roads for providing places to drive to and from • manufacturing parts for assembly • making petrol for fuel • steel for car frame/body • chemicals for seats, interior, etc. 2

3. QOTD Blame the industrialist? • Cars begin to pollute the environment long before they are out of the factory • Q.1 Who is at fault? Blame the industrialist? • If you blame the industrialist • we miss the point! • Yes. Autos, auto production and the factories contribute to produce acid rain • however, they are responding to our demands • they are part of a complex interdependent system • recall: we said it is difficult to predict the effects • why? • Consider the following example (skyscrapers/tall buildings). 3

4. Consider an Asia example: Skyscrapers & Other Tall Buildings • ‘When Work Makes You Ill’ • from Asiaweek Feb 7,’97 • respiratory disorders, watery eyes, itchy skin • shown by those spending long hours in controlled environment office towers • Improved when: • moved to buildings w/fresh air - 25L/s/person • independent ventilation for each floor, • separated copies, smoking, increased air humidity 4

5. An Asia example: Skyscrapers & Other Tall Buildings • Why did we (the builders) not anticipate these problems? • People have been building tall buildings for many years. • Why the trouble? Profit motive? Shortcuts? • Maybe/maybe not related to profit or shortcuts. • Consider: What is needed for the success of this type of project? • Information. What kind? • Information that requires some consideration of interdependent systems/technologies • What about public projects? 5

6. insert Tsing Ma bridge photo here: Tsing Ma Bridge is a public project 6

7. Introduction: Public Projects • Industry motivated by profit • may explain why environment is sometimes secondary concern and requires regulation • Is the government really motivated by profit? • government not motivated by profit • why does government pay to build? • social payoff • value of something to the society • infrastructure, jobs 7

8. A well known public project (Insert HK stadium photo here) 8

9. A well known public project: The Hong Kong Stadium • ‘Headset ruling for Elton gig ‘embarrassing’’ from South China Morning Post Feb. 12, ‘97 • ‘Elton’s cancelled concerts spark row over red tape’ from Hong Kong Standard Feb. 15, ‘97 • Background: • ‘everyone wear headphones at the concert • ‘no amplifiers!’ • Urban council proposal ‘to limit noise disturbance’ • ‘It really works’, Mr. Li • ‘Spoils the atmosphere’ do you agree? • Some even suggested people should wear gloves! • so that the clapping is not too loud! 9

10. Hong Kong reaction? • See articles. • Some in Hong Kong said • This is an ‘Embarrassment for our business’ • we are a ‘laughing stock’ • Should the concerts be held with headphones? • How loud is too loud? 10

11. Is Sound Harmful or Annoying? • How to measure? • the softest audible sound - 0 dB • the rustle of leaves - 20 dB • an office setting - 30-40 dB • average street noise, normal voice at 2ft, shout at 8ft 70dB • HK Stadium limit - 65-70 dB • boiler room, pneumatic air hoist 90-100 dB • prolonged exposure can cause damage 90-100 dB • nearby thunder - 120 dB 11

12. Introduction: Public Projects • Recall: government is not motivated by profit • if Government not motivated by profit • why still problems with side effects on the environment with public projects? • is something wrong with the process for decision? • is something else needed for decision? 12

13. Q.2 Consider public projects such as HK Stadium, Tsing Ma Bridge. How are they decided? • Many public projects: Q: ‘Should we build this?’ ‘Here?’ • justified on the basis of risk-benefit analysis • benefits related to potential/expected social payoff • risks related to potential/expected social costs • current information is collected • many assumptions must be made • determine if the benefits outweigh the risks 13

14. How decided?: Risk Benefit Analyses and Reducing Risk • In the case of the Hong Kong Stadium, • one expected benefit (expected social payoff) …. • enjoy outdoor concerts and football games. • However, we can not get one of the main expected benefits. What went wrong? • Q.3 What is the problem with this type of analysis? • analysis is based on many assumptions • both risks and benefits lie in the future • No experts can be expected to know the future 1 4

15. Analyzing Hong Kong Stadium: Facing the hard questions a bit late • Should the HK Stadium have been built? • benefit of the stadium? • risk? • should it have been built? • why was it built there? • would the risk have been lower elsewhere? • benefit greater/lower elsewhere? • would it have been better in a different location? • different design, same location? 15

16. What does it mean for us? For scientists, engineers and businesspeople • Q4. What does it mean for us in decisions about public projects • or in decisions about Homework 1 (related) • We must be careful to face hard questions created by lack of knowledge (at the beginning) • because: • responsibility falls on the decisionmakers • effects/implications for society and its people • note: the parties/people to be effected are rarely polled for their opinions beforehand 16

17. SOSC 111 - Homework #1 - Monday September 21, 1998Impact of Taxis & Bus Conversion to Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) • Your group is now the SOSC 111 advisory committee, and you are to report to the Hong Kong Government. • Regarding the possible conversion of taxis and buses from diesel fuel consumption to Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), you will need to consider the possible impact of the change and public opinion/understanding. • Your group will need to gather some information and summarize it for a report to be presented to a meeting of the legislative council in class on Wednesday, September 30. 17

18. Part 1 • If Hong Kong were to require the use of cleaner LPG fuel, there would be primary results, secondary results, social payoff, social cost and social lag associated with the change. Please explain. • Your advisory committee should consider the viewpoints of different institutions within Hong Kong in describing the effects, payoffs, costs and any lag that may occur. • The summary should be about one page. • Your advisory committee should explain which institutions are represented in the explanations. • Please state your final conclusions about whether to convert taxis and buses to LPG, and if so, under what conditions. 18

19. Part 2 • The Legislative Council considers it important to hear the viewpoints of ordinary citizens as well. • Please gather some information from 10 individuals in the Hong Kong community to give their opinions on the questions found on the back of this sheet. • Please summarize the results using one graph or table and include these results in your summary report. • Your discussion of the expected implications of a change to LPG in part 1 should incorporate these findings (from part 2). • You may include this part (part 2) in the first page of the report or you may use up to one additional page for any explanation, tables or diagrams. • A summary table of the raw data should be included in an appendix. 19

20. administrative • Reading for today (same sheet/handout as other articles) • ‘ ‘Risk Benefit Analyses and Reducing Risk’from ‘Ethics in Engineering’, ‘96. • To be added to the webpage today • Today’s notes, Tutorial 10 & copy of hwk1 • oral presentation for homework 1 • will be announced on Wednesday in class, • giving consideration to your 1st and 2nd choices last week. 20