Prirodna kolebanja/cikličnost?

1. Prirodna kolebanja/cikličnost? • Znanstveno dokazano (Izvještaj IPCC 2007) • Jesu li nam doista poznati svi čimbenici? • Što ako... npr. ništa ne promijenimo? • Možemo li čekati? BRGM (2005)

2. BRGM (2005)

3. IEA (2004)

4. IPCC (2005)

5. Mogućnosti za geološko skladištenje CO2 • Iscrpljena naftna i plinska ležišta • Korištenje CO2 za EOR • Duboki slani vodonosnici • Duboki slojevi ugljena • Korištenje CO2 za ECBM • Druge mogućnosti Proizvodnja nafte ili plina Utiskivanje CO2 Uskladišteni CO2 IPCC (2005)

6. Izvor: IPCC

7. Izvor: IPCC

8. IEA (2004) Izvor: IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage

9. Napušteno poljeB Geosekvestracija polje A Morske struje Nakupljanje pri dnu mora Migracija Pliće “ležište” Difuzija Istjecanje na površinu Čep Pukotina (porast tlaka) P, T Difuzija i tok Napuštena bušotina Difuzija Pokrovne stijene za naftu, ali ne i za CO2 Difuzija Disperzija u otopini Morsko dno Rizici geološkog skladištenja Plinska faza Skladište Šejl Tok podzemne vode Šejl

10. Sigurno (i prihvatljivo)? Geološko skladištenje mora biti sigurno Zabrinutost društva proizlazi iz usporedbe s odlaganjem toksičnog i radioaktivnog otpada Educiranje i informiranje moraju se ubrzati u svrhu podizanja razine javne i političke svijesti o konceptu hvatanja i uskladištenja CO2 … na vrijeme! Namjena prostora (vodonosnici, zaštićena područja...) Tko će pokriti dodatne troškove? Druge mogućnosti – porast energetske učinkovitosti, obnovljivi izvori... nuklearna energija

11. EU GeoCapacity (FP6)

12. Aquifers

13. I

16. Highly efficient coal-fired power block: 47% efficiency, 411 MW e Post-combustion capture 1.8 million tonnes of CO2 per annum ’Nordjyllandsværket’ by the city of Aalborg

17. Cross-section through the Vedsted geological structure CO2 in fluid form is pumped into the well CO2 is stored in porous Sandstones covered by thick sections of impermeable claystones Storage must be at least 700 meters deep to ensure CO2 to be in supercritical state Vedsted-1, Oil exploration well from 1958 Haldager-1, Oil exploration well from 1950 - 1 km Porous sandstone - 2 km - 3 km Cross section courtecy of GEUS

18. The storage structure

19. CHALLENGES 1 (SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY) Integration of CCS and power plant and integration of transport & storage with plant operations Storage site investigations and monitoring with less invasive methods Improved understanding of long-term prediction of geochemical and fluid dynamic effects Pore-scale behaviour of CO2 Combining storage with other activities (water production, EOR, EGR)

20. CHALLENGES 2 - SOCIETY Financing the first demo plants & reducing first-mover risk Building political concensus on CCS: global-EU-national-local Including CCS in national policy measures Linking national need for CCS to actual local activity - public dialogue - risks and rewards

21. ECCOEuropean value chain for CO2 • Co-funded by the European Commission (FP7) • Grant Agreement No: 218868 • Project duration: 2008-2011 (36 months) • Budget: 5,5 million € • EU contribution: 3,8 million € • Co-ordinator: SINTEF Energiforskning AS, Norway

22. To facilitate robust strategic decision making regarding early and future implementation of CO2 value chains for Europe in the face of uncertainty. The project will provide recommendations enabling cost-effective use of the CO2 being produced from zeroemissionpower plants and other industries in Europe. Recommendations are based on; Initial scenario studies performed for Europe, setting the scene for how the development will proceedtowards 2020, including evaluation of technology development, emission trading schemes, regulations,national and international incentives, industrial projects being realized and economical viability of CO2value chains. The development of a computer tool for evaluation of large-scale CO2 value chains with the possibilityof multiple sources and sinks, and development of a large-scale infrastructure for CO2 transport. Output from the scenario studies forms the basis for the tool development. Evaluation of specific challenges related to CO2 injection, both onshore and offshore, depending onreservoir characteristics and the needed processing systems (particularly offshore). Case studies performed, using the computer tool, for evaluation of specific CO2 value chains, using theparameters developed through the scenario studies and in the end evaluates the influence of thedifferent parameters. Identification of the major obstacles that can be addressed and handled with the aim to make futurerealization of CO2 value chains viable.

23. The main users of ECCO-results will be: CO2 producers – seeking opportunities for improving economy of their system. The European Commission (EC) and other supranational bodies – developing regulations and incentives. National authorities – who have the Kyoto and ETS obligations to meet, and seeks ways to organize the national systems in line with EC regulations and industrial interests. CO2 transporters and sellers – who have a potential new stream to handle safely and seek optimal infrastructure development; and are affected by market development. CO2 storage operators – who need to be assured they have a large enough flow of CO2 over the required time, and are dependent on long-term perspective with respect to constraints as regulations and incentives. R&D providers and universities – to be in a better position to serve the industry and authorities by exploiting the platform of knowledge, tools, and methods generated in the project. Oil and gas industry - the increased knowledge of enhanced oil and gas recovery (EOR and EGR) potentials and challenges provided by ECCO might provide the basis for further industrial activities in this front.

24. ECCOEuropean value chain for CO2

26. Dissemination and training - SP1Provide a platform for dissemination of the developments in ECCO. This will include hosting and arranging official dissemination events and training activities. SP1 also aims at enhancing the public awareness regarding the implementation of CCS. CCS analysis and recommendations - SP2Analyse the output from the simulation of case studies and make recommendations for the development and deployment of CO2 value chains using early opportunities across Europe. SP2 has three main goals: To recommend promising CO2 value chains as case studies for deeper evaluation in SP3 To make overall recommendations for the development and deployment of CO2 value chains based on the interpretation of the outcome of the case studies To propose a methodology that can be used by all interested sectors for assessing the worthiness of commercially promising value chain proposals CO2 value chain methodology and tool development - SP3Develop a generic tool for the economic analysis of CO2 value chains. The tool will be designed in a way that will allow flexible, demand-driven tailoring to the applicable market dynamics and incorporate the possibility to model infrastructural, regional dependencies between assets that are gradually and increasingly networked. Reservoir technology for EOR/EGR - SP4Three main objectives: To quantify the potential for enhanced oil and gas recovery (EOR/EGR) and CO2 storage in European petroleum reservoirs To evaluate technological challenges and identify improvements to existing EOR/EGR technology, including CO2 injection and handling of CO2 produced after breakthrough To show how aquifers can be integrated into a CO2 deposition system