Seasonal Assessment Training Household Economy Analysis: The Analytical Framework

1. Seasonal Assessment Training Household Economy Analysis: The Analytical Framework Livelihoods Integration Unit (LIU) Early Warning & Response Department Disaster Management & Food Security Sector Ministry of Agriculture & Rural Development

2. HEA Framework: Overview In relation to seasonal assessments, the objectiveof HEA is to investigate the effects of hazardson future access to food and income at household level

3. Monitoring Data (The changes) + On-going Analysis of Current and Projected Situation and Intervention Needs (The outcome) HEA Framework: Overview The framework involves putting together two types of information: Livelihood Baseline Data (The context)

4. Coping step example: 1 household member migrates for labour Hazard example: 50% crop failure The baseline picture Effect on access to crops Final result HEA Framework: Overview Outcome = Baseline + Hazard + Coping (a simple example)

5. HEA Framework: Overview A more detailed example…. HEA starts with an understanding of how households normally live….

6. HEA Framework: Overview A more detailed example…. …then it incorporates the impact of a shock….

7. Gap The analysis suggests that post-shock, households will not be able to maintain their normal livelihood assets without assistance. …and finally looks at how people might be able to cope. Livelihoods Protection Threshold Survival Threshold

8. In sum…. BASELINE

9. In sum…. + HAZARD BASELINE

10. In sum…. + + HAZARD COPING BASELINE

11. In sum…. + + = HAZARD OUTCOME COPING BASELINE

12. HEA Framework Overview: Components In practice this process is broken into six steps + + = HAZARD OUTCOME COPING BASELINE

13. Step 1: Livelihood Zoning Enderta Dry Midland ZoneProduction: Rainfed mixed agriculture Agro-ecological zone: Woina dega (midland) Main Consumption: Wheat, Teff, Sorghum, Main cash crops: Barley, Wheat, Sorghum, Main livestock: Sheep, Cattle, Poultry Market access: good Other economic activities: Salt trade, animal sales, Hazards: Drought every 3 years, weeds every year Response of poor: Labour sales, firewood sales, migration What it does: Defines areas within which people share broadly the same patterns of livelihood West Central Teff ZoneProduction: Rainfed mixed agricultureAgro-ecological zone: Woina dega (midland) Main Consumption: Teff, Barley, Wheat, PulsesMajor Cash Crops: Teff, Wheat, PulsesMain livestock: Cattle, goat, sheepMarket Access: GoodHazard: Drought every 3 years, pests every 3 years, hailstorms annuallyResponse of poor: Labour sales, reduce meals (frequency) Why it is necessary: Allows you to target geographically & to customize indicators for livelihoods monitoring systems

14. Step 2: Wealth Breakdown What it does: Groups people together using local definitions of wealth and quantifies their livelihood assets Gesho & Wheat Highland Zone Why it is necessary: Allows you to disaggregate the population and indicate who (and how many) need assistance

15. Sources of Food Step 3: Baseline food, income and expenditure quantification What it does: Quantifies sources of food and income, and expenditure patterns for a baseline year 2005-6 in Tigray Sources of Income Why it is necessary: Enables comparisons across wealth groups, zones and countries & provides starting point for outcome analysis Expenditure Central Mixed Crop Livelihood Zone

16. OUTCOME ANALYSIS Step 4: What it does: Translates a hazard into economic consequences at household level Compiled from data collected during seasonal assessments or monitoring Why it is necessary: Allows you to mathematically link the shock to each relevant livelihood strategy

17. OUTCOME ANALYSIS Step 5: What it does: Assesses the ability of households to respond to the hazard Why it is necessary: Determines the amount of external assistance required & Highlights monitoring indicators for testing prediction Data collected during baseline

18. OUTCOME ANALYSIS Step 6: What it does: Predicts the outcome of the hazard in relation to livelihood protection and survival thresholds Why it is necessary: Allows you to determine whether people need external assistance in order to survive and/or to maintain their livelihood assets The figure compares three different situations, of progressively greater severity and urgency.

19. The Survival Threshold is the total income required to cover: • A) 100% of minimum food energy needs (2100 kcals per person per day), • B) the costs associated with food preparation and consumption (i.e. salt, soap • kerosene and/or firewood for cooking and basic lighting), • any expenditure on water for human consumption • This is the line below which intervention is required to save lives. • The Livelihoods Protection Threshold represents the total income required to • sustain local livelihoods. This means total expenditure to: • A) ensure basic survival (see above), • maintain access to basic services (e.g. routine medical and schooling expenses), • C) plus sustain livelihoods in the medium to longer term (e.g. regular purchase of seeds, inputs vet drugs); • D) locally acceptable standard of living (e.g. coffee, pepper, etc) • This is the line below which an intervention is required to maintain existing livelihood assets