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AIM/Local Model: India Application

AIM/Local Model: India Application Manmohan Kapshe Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on Integrated Environment Assessment in Asia-Pacific Region Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi October 24-26, 2002 Overview AIM/Local Model

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AIM/Local Model: India Application

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  1. AIM/Local Model:India Application Manmohan Kapshe Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on Integrated Environment Assessment in Asia-Pacific Region Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi October 24-26, 2002 IIM Ahmedabad

  2. Overview • AIM/Local Model • India AIM/Local Application • Large Point Sources (LPS) • Area Sources • Sub-regional AIM/Local Application (Ahmedabad District) IIM Ahmedabad

  3. AIM/Local Model IIM Ahmedabad

  4. Introduction • Modeling the dilemma of providing energy services and protecting the environment in a local region CO2, SO2, NOX Acid precipitation Air pollutants Energy Technology Energy Service Demand

  5. Features • Simplified Structure • Modeling local environmental constraints • Direct benefit and co-benefit of counter measures • Flexible model structure to cope with various practical situation in different regions • GAMS programming • Separate representation of LPS and Area Sources • GIS Interface IIM Ahmedabad

  6. Definitions Parameters Variables Constraints Service demand Environmental target Available energy supply Linear programming Solver Operating capacity Maximum shares of technologies Maximum exchange of stock Objective Function Total cost  minimum Methodology IIM Ahmedabad

  7. Input File for GAMS AIM-Local Database System AIM-Local model GAMS version Output file from GAMS GAMS Input file from IDRISI IDRISI32 AIM-Local Database System IIM Ahmedabad

  8. Large Point Source and Area Source Sector Emission by point Large Point Source Emission by Region Emission by Region and Sector Area Source Sub-regional emissions are calculated as: Emissions from LPS in the sub-region + Allocated Area Source Emissions IIM Ahmedabad

  9. Structure of AIM-Local Database Energy service tech. (LT) & Air Pollution Control (P) - Energy Cons.(K L P T), - Service Supply (L J T) - Fixed Cost (L P T) - Removal Rate (L P T) etc. Energy Service Tech.(L T) Service Technology Air Pollution Control(P) Service Demand( I J ) Stock Stock Quantity ( L T0) Subsidy ( I L T ) Counter- measure Regulation( ME M T) Technology Selection Module (AIM-Local GAMS ver.) Share Potential( I L J T ) Share Maintenance etc.( I LT ) Operating Rate ( I L T ) Performance Tax( ME M T) I : LPS or Area L : Energy Device P : Removal Porcess J : Service K : Energy M : Gas (CO2, SO2, NO2) T : Time ME : Group on measure Energy Consumption CO2 Emission SO2/NO2 Emission ( I L T ) Energy Price Emission Factor ( K T ) Energy Data requirements are similar to AIM/Enduse but more extensive, due to LPS data and GIS information requirements IIM Ahmedabad

  10. What is GIS? GIS is considered to answer the generic types of questions. These include questions about location, patterns, trends and conditions. • Where are particular features found? • What geographical patterns exist? • Where have changes occurred over a given time period? IIM Ahmedabad

  11. GIS Application • Capture location sensitivity • Layered information • Time slices • Integrating location and time information in a consistent framework IIM Ahmedabad

  12. Delhi SO2 Emissions from Oil Sulfur Coefficient decrease from 1% to 0.05% (by weight) for Diesel over 1995-2002 has resulted in substantial SO2 emission reduction in Delhi IIM Ahmedabad

  13. India AIM/Local Application IIM Ahmedabad

  14. Sectoral LPS share for CO2 2000 All India LPS Paper Power (Gas) 3% 3% Cement 12% Other 36% Steel 20% Power (Coal & Oil) LPS Share 62% 64% IIM Ahmedabad

  15. All India LPS Ind. Process Paper 4% 5% Cement 10% Other 38% Steel Power (Coal & Oil) 22% 59% LPS Share 62% Sectoral LPS share for SO2 2000 IIM Ahmedabad

  16. LPS Database • LPS number increases in future • Coverage of gases: CO2 and SO2 • Indianised emission coefficients (to the extent possible) • Projections up to year 2030 IIM Ahmedabad

  17. Sector Sub - sectors LPS covered 2000 2010 2020 2030 Energy Power (coal & Oil) 82 111 131 150 Power (natural gas) 12 17 20 23 Steel 10 16 22 28 Cement * 85 98 110 123 Fertilizer 31 41 52 62 Paper 33 38 43 48 Sugar 28 28 29 30 Caustic Soda 19 21 23 26 Industrial H SO manufacturing 63 64 66 68 2 4 processes Aluminium (Al) 3 4 5 5 Copper ore smelting (Cu) 8 9 10 11 Lead ore smelting (Pb) 5 6 7 8 Zinc ore sm elting (Zn) 3 4 5 5 Total 382 457 523 587 LPS Coverage for India IIM Ahmedabad

  18. LPS Locations 2000 2030 IIM Ahmedabad

  19. Database Generation • Sectoral demand projections on the basis of macro-economic parameters • Thirty year time series GDP • Government projections • Expert opinion • LPS demand on the basis of sectoral demand elasticity and past production trends • Demand over and above LPS capacities assigned to Area Sources IIM Ahmedabad

  20. CO2 from Energy Sector LPS IIM Ahmedabad

  21. CO2 from LPS 2000 2030 IIM Ahmedabad

  22. 2000 2030 CO2 Emission Distribution IIM Ahmedabad

  23. LPS contribution to CO2 IIM Ahmedabad

  24. SO2 from Energy Sector LPS IIM Ahmedabad

  25. SO2 from Industrial Processes LPS IIM Ahmedabad

  26. SO2 from LPS 2000 2030 IIM Ahmedabad

  27. 2000 2030 SO2 Emission Distribution IIM Ahmedabad

  28. Sub-regional AIM/Local Application (Ahmedabad District) IIM Ahmedabad

  29. Ahmedabad Municipal area Ahmedabad District Gujarat Gujarat State & Ahmedabad District IIM Ahmedabad

  30. 730 E 71.60 E Longitude 23.40 N Ahmedabad Municipal Area Dehgam Viramgam Daskroi Sanand Ahmedabad City Latitude Dholka Dhandhuka 21.90 N Ahmedabad District IIM Ahmedabad

  31. Note: Figures in brackets show % Urban share Ahmedabad District Profile IIM Ahmedabad

  32. Industry LPS Covered Major Emissions 66 CO , SO , NO Chemicals Manufacturing 2 2 x Dyes M anufacturing 25 CO , SO 2 2 Others Industries 9 CO , SO 2 2 Pharmaceuticals 2 CO , SO , NO 2 2 x Steel Foundries and Fabrication 94 CO , SO 2 2 Textile Mills 4 CO , SO , NO 2 2 x Textile Processing and Dyeing 17 CO , SO 2 2 LPS Coverage for Ahmedabad IIM Ahmedabad

  33. 2000 2030 CO2 Emissions IIM Ahmedabad

  34. 2000 2030 SO2 Emissions IIM Ahmedabad

  35. Conclusions • Disjoint between future GHG and local emissions • LPS emissions continue to dominate national emissions, thus providing focused mitigation possibilities • AIM/Local a suitable tool for District/City level emission analysis IIM Ahmedabad

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