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MD 240 Intelligent Support Systems

MD 240 Intelligent Support Systems Agenda Background Artificial Intelligence Neural Computing Expert Systems Fuzzy Logic Intelligent Agents Natural Language Processing & Voice Technology Computer Vision Collaborative Filtering Background General objective of AI: Machine Learning

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MD 240 Intelligent Support Systems

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  1. MD 240Intelligent Support Systems

  2. Agenda • Background • Artificial Intelligence • Neural Computing • Expert Systems • Fuzzy Logic • Intelligent Agents • Natural Language Processing & Voice Technology • Computer Vision • Collaborative Filtering

  3. Background • General objective of AI: Machine Learning • How can we construct computer programs (embedded in machines) that automatically improve with experience? • This is a problem of interest to many disciplines • AI: symbolic representation of knowledge, learning • Statistics: Bayes’ methods, forecasting error • Philosophy • Psychology/Neurobiology: how does learning improve? • Control Theory: control processes to meet pre-defined objectives • Computational Complexity Theory: computational bounds for the complexity of learning tasks • Information Theory: measures of information, learning approaches • You will find much overlap across these disciplines

  4. Background • Artificial • “made by work or art, not by nature” • Intelligence • understanding natural language, having the ability to process even potentially ambiguous messages • recognizing speech • seeing, hearing, tasting, touching, smelling • learning new concepts or procedures • planning an itinerary • having common sense (Bronzino and Morelli, Expert Systems, 1989)

  5. Artificial Intelligence

  6. Artificial IntelligenceWhat is Artificial Intelligence? • Artificial Intelligence is not easily defined • Even AI “experts” cannot agree • “Artificial Intelligence is the science of making machines do things that would require intelligence if done by men.” (M. Minsky, The Society of Mind, 1985) • “Artificial Intelligence is … concerned with designing intelligent computer systems, that is, systems that exhibit characteristics we associate with intelligence in human behavior.” (A. Barr and E. A. Feigenbaum, The Handbook of Artificial Intelligence, 1982) • “Artificial Intelligence is the study of intelligent behavior. One of its goals is to understand human intelligence. Another is to produce useful machines.” (Garnham, Artificial Intelligence, 1987)

  7. Artificial IntelligenceThought Processes and Intelligent Behavior • Artificial intelligence (AI) is concerned with two basic ideas • studying the thought processes of humans • representing those thought processes via machines • computers • robots = machines with embedded “intelligent” computing capabilities that can “sense” their environment, and “respond” appropriately

  8. Artificial IntelligenceObjectives of AI • To understand what intelligence is • To make machines smarter • To make machines more useful

  9. Artificial IntelligenceWhy These Objectives? • Computers are “stupid” • Inflexible • Rule-following • Mechanical • “Intelligent” computers • Flexible • Creative

  10. Natural Intelligence & BehaviorWhat are Humans Good At? • Uniquely Human Capabilities • Learning or understanding from experience • Making sense of ambiguous or contradictory messages • Hand-counting paper ballots in Florida • Responding to new situations quickly and successfully • Using reason to solve problems and direct actions effectively • Dealing with complex situations • Applying knowledge to manipulate the environment • Recognizing the relative importance of different elements in a situation

  11. Artificial vs. Natural IntelligenceAI Advantages over Natural Intelligence • AI is more permanent • Human intelligence encoded in a machine • AI offers ease of duplication and dissemination • Duplicate human intelligence into many machines • AI can be less expensive • Once you model and store human intelligence, you don’t have to pay humans who hold that intelligence any more • AI is consistent and thorough • AI can be documented • A computer program holds the “intelligence”

  12. Artificial vs. Natural IntelligenceNatural Intelligence Advantages over AI • Natural intelligence is creative • Humans can “think outside of the box” … machines process inside some boundaries of their accumulated “intelligence” • Natural intelligence enables people to benefit from and directly use sensory experiences • Natural intelligence enables people to recognize relationships between things, sense qualities, and spot patterns that explain how various items interrelate • Human reasoning is always able to make use of a context of experiences

  13. Commercial AI TechnologyBusiness (MIS) Considerations • Potential Benefits of AI/ES Applications • Increased output and productivity • Increase quality • Potential to capture and disseminate scarce expertise • Operation in hazardous environments • Wider accessibility of knowledge

  14. Commercial AI TechnologyBusiness (MIS) Considerations • Potential Benefits of AI/ES Applications • Reliability • Increased capabilities of other computerized systems • Ability to work with incomplete or uncertain information • Ability to provide training to humans • Enhanced problem solving capabilities • Decreased decision making time

  15. Commercial AI Technology • Expert systems (ES) • Natural language processing • Robotics and sensory systems • Computer vision and scene recognition • Intelligent computer-aided instruction (ICAI) • Handwriting recognizers

  16. AI Technologies • AI Substituting for the Brain • Brain cell activities … Neural Networks • Human reasoning … Expert Systems, Fuzzy Logic • Intelligent behavior … Intelligent Agents • AI Substituting for Sensory Organs • Eyes … Computer Vision • Eyes … Natural Language Processing • Speech … Natural Language Processing • AI Substituting for Social Behavior/Groups • Social group activities … Collaborative Filtering

  17. Neural Computing

  18. Neural ComputingArtificial Neural Networks (ANN) • ANNs provide a practical method for learning • discrete-valued functions • boolean (0/1) functions can be represented • real-valued functions • bounded continuous functions can be estimated arbitrarily closely • vector-valued functions • any function can be approximated to arbitrary accuracy

  19. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)Business Applications • Discrete functions • Tax fraud - identify irregularity (Y/N) • Financial services - identify trading pattern (Y/N) • Loan applications evaluation - judge worthiness of loan (Y/N) • Solvency prediction - will corporation fail? (Y/N) • Credit-card fraud detection - is a purchase fraudulent? (Y/N) • New product analysis - will market segment accept product? (Y/N) • Real-valued functions • Financial services - forecast foreign exchange rates (#) • New product analysis - sales forecasting (#) • Foreign exchange rate - forecast risk rating (#) • Stock, bond, commodities selection and trading - estimate IPO price (#)

  20. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)Business Applications • Vector-valued functions • Airline fare management - seat demand & crew scheduling (#,#) • Evaluation of personnel and job candidates - based on characteristics, estimate requirements and performance (#,#) • Resource allocation - choose multiple inputs to maximize multiple outputs (#,#) • Data mining • Signature validation - match shapes of signatures (#, … , #) • Face identification - match shapes of faces (#, … , #)

  21. Neural ComputingPotential Benefits • Provides some human characteristics of problem solving • Recognition of patterns and characteristics • ANNs may provide characteristics of human “neural networks” • Fault-tolerance • If you damage or kill a few brain cells, the others should adapt and still solve problems successfully • Generalization • Reasonable inputs (generalizable to inputs of ANN) lead to reasonable outputs • Adaptability • New cases (inputs, outputs) can lead to retraining of network to update and improve decision making model • Forecasting • Assume historical process correct. Obtain future input. Predict future output.

  22. Neural ComputingBuilding Neural Networks • Build ANN program to represent neurons • Input layer (sensory layer) • Middle “hidden” layer(s) - discrete/real func.: # =1, arbitrary func.: # = 2 • Output layer (decision or solution layer … “respond”) • Train ANN: use historical data set to “train” system on how to make decisions • Actual inputs (e.g. consumer credit information) • Actual outputs (e.g. did consumer default on loan?) • Each hidden “neuron” contains an estimated function • Use of “trained” NN system • Real input data (e.g. consumer credit application) • Hidden layer estimates a value, which determines output • Real decision output (e.g. Greg’s credit is DENIED!)

  23. Neural ComputingNeural Network Example 1 1 Input Hidden Values 10000000 .89 .04 .08 01000000 .15 .99 .99 00100000 .01 .97 .27 00010000 .99 .97 .71 00001000 .03 .05 .02 00000100 .01 .11 .88 00000010 .80 .01 .98 00000001 .60 .94 .01 * after 5000 training examples ** the hidden values encode an estimate of the standard binary encoding for eight distinct values 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hidden Layer Input Output

  24. Expert Systems

  25. Expert Systems (ES)Definitions • What is an Expert System? • An Expert System is decision-making software that can reach a level of performance comparable to - or even exceeding that of - a human expert in some specialized problem area (Turban, et al., 2000) • What do they do? • “Expert systems attempt to mimic the expert’s knowledge and problem solving ability …[and] to assist human decision-making in a wide variety of ways, including advising, consulting, designing, diagnosing, explaining, forecasting, learning, monitoring, and tutoring.” (Bronzino and Morelli, 1989)

  26. Expert SystemsBasic Architecture Knowledge Database User Interface Inference Engine

  27. Expert SystemsBasic Architecture Knowledge Database (Knowledge Base) contains axioms (facts, truths, representations of knowledge) theorems (logically derived facts) logical derivation (proofs)

  28. Expert SystemsBasic Architecture Inference Engine problem solving mechanisms general knowledge (non-domain specific) needed to solve problems

  29. Expert SystemsHow They Work • Knowledge representation (rule based) • Declarative knowledge (i.e., facts) • If [two individuals have the same father], then [they are brothers] • Procedural knowledge (i.e., typical procedures) • If [engine won’t turn over after using key], then [check the battery] • Strategic knowledge (i.e., strategies for approaching problem) • If [goal is to start car], then [start by inserting and turning key] • Heuristic knowledge (i.e., judgmental heuristics used by humans) • If [goal is to prevent contraband], then [“spot check” passenger luggage] • Heuristic: “spot check”

  30. Expert SystemsHow They Work • Knowledge inference • Predicate Logic/Sentential Logic/Propositional Logic • Sentences/propositions have a truth value … they are either “T” or “F” • Modus Ponens • A then B (is a true statement) = “IF A, THEN B” • A (is a true statement) • Therefore B (is true, according to truth tables for “A then B”) • Example • If [two individuals have the same father], then [they are brothers] • “Joe is male” • “Jim is male” • “Jane is female” • “Tim is the father of Joe”, “Tim is the Father of Jim”, “Tim is the father of Jane” • DERIVED FACT: “Joe and Jim are brothers” (Sounds good!) • DERIVED FACT: “Jane and Jim are brothers” (OOPS!)

  31. Expert SystemsKnowledge Engineering Knowledge Acquisition with Domain Expert Conceptualize Expert System Preliminary Model of Expert System Test & Debug Formalize & Implement Prototype of Expert System Feedback? End User Uses

  32. Expert SystemsDevelopment Tools • General Purpose Languages • Procedural: C, Pascal, PL/1, Fortran • Symbolic: LISP, Scheme • AI Languages • Object-Oriented: Smalltalk, Actor • Logic Programming: Prolog • Expert Systems Shells • EXSYS, MacSmarts, Emycin, KEE Very flexible, but must build components from ground up Built-in capabilities … knowledge representation schemes, inference mechanisms, interface features, debugging tools, etc.

  33. Expert SystemsManagerial Implications • Upshots • Expert Systems would be valuable to ISD, operations, upper-level management, etc. • Representing and storing knowledge is HARD • Knowledge engineering is HARD … evolutionary • Management decisions about ES are complex • Costs vs. Benefits … How to justify? • The time of an EXPERT is valuable • Using their time to build ES is presumably expensive • Expectations … How not to Over-Sell? • Acquiring Knowledge … How to get Experts to participate? • ES Acceptance … How to get End User to use ES? • ES Integration … How to integrate ES into legacy MIS?

  34. Fuzzy Logic

  35. Fuzzy Logic Fuzzy logic deals with uncertainties by simulating the process of human reasoning, allowing the computer to behave less precisely and logically than conventional computers do.

  36. Intelligent Agents (IA)

  37. Intelligent Agents (IA) • Intelligent Agents • software entities • carry out some set of operations on behalf of a user or another program • with some degree of independence • in so doing, employ some knowledge or representation of the user’s goals

  38. Intelligent AgentsMajor Tasks They May Perform • Information access and navigation • Decision support and empowerment • Repetitive office activity • Mundane personal activity • Search and retrieval • Domain experts

  39. Intelligent AgentsPossible Characteristics • Autonomous - acting on its own, goal-oriented • Proactive response - taking the initiative • Unobstructive - works by itself without constant monitoring • Module - transportable across systems & networks • Dedicated & automated - designed for specific task • Interactive - works with humans or software • Conditional processing - make decision based on context • Friendly & dependable • Able to learn - observe end user and predict end user’s actions, sense environment and respond

  40. Intelligent AgentsExamples of IA Applications • User interface • Microsoft Agent • Operating systems agents • Windows NT wizard • Application agents • The happy paperclip! • MS Excel wizards, MS Word wizards, MS Access wizards

  41. Intelligent AgentsExamples of IA Applications • Workflow and administrative management agents • Software development • suggesting changes to computer program code • Discovery and negotiation in electronic commerce • Boo.com - shopping “agent” • automated product finding, • date finding (Friendfinder.com) • employment discovery (Monster.com) • airline ticket bots that intelligently search all major airlines (QIXO.com, SideStep.com)

  42. Intelligent AgentsThe Future: Networks of Agents • Distributed Intelligent Agents … • “Multi-Agent Systems” • “Agents that Interact” • “Distributed Systems of Agents”

  43. Intelligent AgentsThe Future: Networks of Agents • Why? • Technological and application needs • Just seems natural … intelligence and interaction are deeply coupled • Speed-up and efficiency • IAs can operate both alone and together … whichever is appropriate • Robustness and reliability • One or several IAs may fail, the system will still work (similar to ANN) • Scalability and flexibility • easily add IAs to scale system, each individual IA still functions with same flexibility • Costs • use many low cost IAs to do same job as one expensive IA • Development and reusability • easier development and redevelopment of IA … reuse IAs (G. Weiss, Multiagent Systems, 1999)

  44. Intelligent AgentsThe Future: Networks of Agents • Applications • Electronic commerce … IAs represent buyer/seller • Monitoring/management of telecommunication networks • Groove.net - identifying group members online • Optimization of transportation systems • Optimization of industrial manufacturing processes • Holonic flexible manufacturing systems - scheduling resources • Analysis of business processes within/between businesses • BBN is building networks of NASA probes for exploring the surface of planets

  45. Natural Language Processing and Voice Technology

  46. Natural Language ProcessingAdvantages of Speech Recognition • Ease of access • Speed • Manual freedom • Remote access • Accuracy

  47. Natural Language ProcessingClasses of Technologies • Speech to Text • Speech (voice) recognition and understanding • Dragon’s Naturally Speaking • Speech to Computer Command • Cell phone voice commands • Text to Speech • Voice synthesis • Scan-Soft’s Omni Page - voice readback of OCR results • Text to Text • Translation software • AltaVista’s Babelfish (babelfish.altavista.com)

  48. Computer Vision

  49. Computer VisionScene Recognition • Optical Character Recognition (OCR) • Scan page as a bitmap (black and white picture elements) • Translate bitmap picture into an ASCII file of characters • Scan-Soft’s Omni Page • Sensing Visual Field • Eagle-Eye Project (BC) • sense eye movement of handicapped, translate into computer commands • NASA’s Mars probe • sense rocks, adjust movement of probe • Toys • Lego Mindstorms (mindstorms.lego.com)

  50. Collaborative Filtering

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