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Nuclear Weapons in Future and the Road to Abolition

Nuclear Weapons in Future and the Road to Abolition. Jasjit Singh Director, Centre for Strategic & International Studies, New Delhi. Cold War ends. NPT. Risks and Dangers . Old dangers remain, new ones increasing

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Nuclear Weapons in Future and the Road to Abolition

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  1. Nuclear Weapons in Futureand the Road to Abolition Jasjit Singh Director, Centre for Strategic & International Studies, New Delhi

  2. Cold War ends NPT CSIS

  3. Risks and Dangers • Old dangers remain, new ones increasing • Large number of weapons to remain in arsenals for decades if not through the century since there isno movement toward abolition of nuclear weapons • Minimum levels of holdings still run the risk of rapid escalation to maximum exchange • New weapon designs will make NW more usable for war fighting and inherently unstable CSIS

  4. Abolition of Nuclear Weapons? • Past focus almost exclusively on physical reduction and elimination. It must continue • “Political will” because of belief in the political and military utility of nuclear weapons does not allow movement toward disarmament • Need to address the “software” besides the “hardware” CSIS

  5. What we require, then, is a concerted effort to build norms, inhibitions and barriers against the use and threat of use of nuclear weaponswhile we work to physically reduce and eliminate nuclear weapons CSIS

  6. Abiding lesson of history • All major changes have taken place because of changes in ideas and beliefs: - Divine Right of Kings - Slavery - Colonial empires - Untouchability - Apartheid, and so on CSIS

  7. A path not taken -a new Convention on an old model • The model: 1925 Geneva Convention • The rule: Ban the threat and use of chemical weapons • The conditions: No bar on production and possession (which were to be dealt with separately) • The exception: Use permitted in self-defence CSIS

  8. Corollary • Universal doctrine of No-First-Use (A “second strike” capability was seen as the test of credibility of nuclear deterrence) • Nuclear postures and strategy of de-alerted arsenals, separated delivery systems and warheads • Non-use in battlefield scenarios • Other measures like FMCT, CTBT etc. CSIS

  9. How can this be done? • Revive the UN General Assembly resolution since 1978 passed year after year with nearly 120 states supporting it • Generate support outside the UN system to press for a Convention to Outlaw the Threat and Use of Nuclear Weapons CSIS

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