NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002

1. National Weather Service Science and Technology Infusion Plan Introduction NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002 Paul Hirschberg Office of Science & Technology

2. Outline • Background • Vision • Keys to S&T Infusion • Teamwork • Process • Architecture • Plans

3. Tornado Warnings BackgroundNWS Planning for the Future • Successfully Completed Modernization and Restructuring • Our products and services have improved • Performance is leveling off • Users still have needs • S&T continues advancing • How will NWS respond and continue improving?

4. Winter Storms Vision >1 Day Current 13 Hours VisionVastly Improved Forecasts and Warnings in Our Core Service Areas Notional Warning Lead Time Improvements Thunder Storms Vision >1 Hour Flash Floods Current 16 Minutes Vision >2 Hour Hurricanes Current 47 Minutes Tornadoes Vision >2 Days Vision >30 Minutes Current 10 Minutes Current 20 Hours

5. Vision In a Seamless Database of Information • Observations • Analyses • Forecasts • Uncertainty Information • Outlooks, Watches, Warnings • Interrogation and mining tools allow users to exploit database for any application or purpose

6. Fisheries Impact Forecasts Air Quality Forecasts Space Weather Forecasts Water Quality Forecasts Coastal Erosion Forecasts VisionStrengthening Links and Building NewPrograms in Non-Traditional Service Areas

7. Air Quality Forecasts IFPS Current Radar Vision What It Will Take to Get There • Know and Anticipate Customer Needs. • Evolve Operational Concepts • Train Workforce • Infuse Proven Science and Technology Upgraded Radar

8. S&T InfusionObjective Improve performancethrough a disciplined incorporation of new ideas, procedures, and capabilities (Dorman Report, 1999)

9. Bridging the Valley of Death Teams - Process - Architecture - Plans Operations R & D Improved Tech Insertion S&T Infusion Key Elements • Define Roles and Responsibilities for Teamwork • To effect transition • Define Process • To establish thread to operations early • Promote Compatible Architecture - Prediction Systems and Testbeds • To streamline transition • Plan - Roadmaps leading Program, Budget and Execution Plans • To set direction and add discipline

10. Teamwork S&T Transition Roles and Responsibilities NWS: • Identifies operational S&T shortfalls • Evaluates S&T opportunities • Conducts applied R&D – operational applications • Inserts proven new S&T into operations • Leads planning and budgeting for S&T insertion into operations

11. Teamwork S&T Transition Roles and Responsibilities NWS S&T Partners: • Develop/find R&D • Identify opportunities, make data/info available early • Respond to NWS operational shortfalls • Collaborate/assist in utilization/insertion of S&T including research data into operations • Assist as consultant in maintenance of operational capability • Lead planning and budgeting for R&D

12. R&D Research Demonstration Operational Development Deployment Process • Establish coordinated “thread” to operations early – including envisioned applications • Develop joint plans – R&D to Operations • Start at operations, work backwards and iterate • Coordinate investment strategies upfront • Continuously review and update • Execution • Scheduled and frequent communication and coordination • Design and readiness reviews • Well understood decision points and criteria

13. USWRP Aviation Time Water Management NWS Field Drought Preparedness Marine Safety THORpex Emergency Management Universities SOOs/DOOs Field Science Opportunities Push Process Requirements Pull Reqirements Validation Solution Selection Solution Development Deployment R&D Required? Solution Analysis User Needs YES NO YES Potential NWS Use? Positive R&D Evalation? Positive Demo Evaluation? Operational Requirement? NWS Endorsed R&D NWS Endorsed Demo S&T Idea

14. ProcessContinuously Review and Update Accelerate Transition Required Capability For Operations Performance Projected Progress Agreed Upon Boundaries Stop Project 2002 2003 2004 2005 2008 Time 2007 2006 Baseline

15. Architecture Commonality/Compatibility is Key • Prediction systems • Vision: Compatible research and operational models • Testbeds • Vision: Develop and test new S&T in laboratory settings - When proven: Timely, cost-effective transition to operations

16. ArchitecturePrediction Systems • Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model • State-of-the-science, common infrastructure system • Supporting advanced regional- to local-scale operational weather forecasting applications and research • More effective insertion of research into operations and coordination of national operational mission capabilities. • Partners: NOAA, NCAR, USAF, USN, FAA • Effort extensible to global and climate systems

17. Research Operations Test ArchitectureTestbeds • Compatible Architecture to support End-to-End R-O Process • Provide Research Community “Real” Operational Environment • Allow Demonstration, Validation, etc. of New Science Before Major Investment • Allow Research on Difficult Operational Problems • Provide training opportunities for current and future scientists • Improved operational NWP • More Timely Infusion of New S&T • Reduced Cost

18. Distributed Testbed System Vision Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation2003 AO planned Satellite DA Joint Hurricane Testbed 8 funded projects Universities, Labs, Other Hurricanes Climate Universities, Labs, Other Planned NWS Observations NWP Severe Weather Coastal Marine Aviation Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Focused on 0-24 h W&F Problems

19. Plan Three Timeframes • NWS Today: • Continuous refreshment of the Modernized NWS • Requirements driven - More service pull than science push • NWS Next: • What NWS will evolve to by 2012 • NWS After Next: • NWS of 20 or more years from now • S&T Opportunities driven - More push than pull (from Dorman Report, 99)

20. Plan Advances Must Occur Along Forecast Process Observe Produce Products & Provide Services Disseminate & Provide Information Access Analyze and Predict

21. PlanAdvances Must be Linked to Results and Worth the Cost Results S&T Advances • Observations • Numerical Prediction • Forecast Applications • IT Architecture • Dissemination/Access Hurricane Track, Intensity and Precipitation Forecasts Tornado and Flash Flood Forecasts Aviation, Fire, and Marine Forecasts Flood and River Predictions Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Energy, Agriculture, Etc.

22. Plan Objectives • Performance Measure Based • “End-to-End” • Research to operations • Observations to delivering information to users • Integrated across service areas • Reflect reasonable budget expectations

23. Next Portion of STIP Cross-Cutting • Observations • DA/Numerical Prediction • Forecast Applications • IT Architecture • Dissemination/Data Access Service/Science • Aviation Weather • Marine/Coastal • Tropical and Extratropical • Public Weather • Severe Storms, Winter Wx., Fire Wx. • Hydrology • QPE, QPF, Flooding • Climate Analysis and Prediction • Air Quality

24. RoadmapsFocused on NWS Today and Next whileKeeping an Eye on After Next Next Increasing Performance Today 2020 2003 2007 2012 Time

25. Briefing Outlines • Team Composition • Vision / Benefits • Goals / Targets • Key Information Gaps • Key Solutions • Outstanding R & D Needs • Summary