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Malaise in US Politics. Recession and Near Collapse of the Banking System in 2008America's Diminishing Influence AbroadSeemingly endemic partisan and societal polarizationFeeling that the governing system is broken. Political Consequences. Election of Barack Obama and a comfortably Democratic Congress in 2008Misinterpretation of 2008 election outcome by Democrats and mediaThe Obama PresidencyContinued Political PolarizationConstraints on political change in the US.
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1. Nicol C. Rae
Florida International University
Miami, Florida The Current State of US Politics
3. Political Consequences Election of Barack Obama and a comfortably Democratic Congress in 2008
Misinterpretation of 2008 election outcome by Democrats and media
The Obama Presidency
Continued Political Polarization
Constraints on political change in the US
4. The 2008 Election The Unpopularity of the George W. Bush administration indicated a likely Democratic win in 2008
Recession
Iraq and Afghanistan Wins
Democratic Congressional Triumph 2006
Cycles of American Politics
But the election of a relatively inexperienced African-American Senator total surprise, and monumental development in US History
5. The Democratic Nomination: Why Obama? Underestimated the appeal of an attractive and charismatic minority candidate with a compelling life story.
Overestimated the appeal of Hillary (and Bill) Clinton
Mobilization of a network of grassroots leftist organizations (netroots) engendered by hostility to Iraq War
Capacity to raise enough money to compete with Clinton
Clear Antiwar position v. Clinton
Great campaign organization and strategy with full understanding of rules of the Democratic primary process (contrast Clinton)
Fortuna
6. The Republican Nomination: Why McCain? Other candidates all had liabilities
Conservatives split vote between Huckabee and Romney
McCains defense of Bush administrations Iraq surge resonated with Republican voters
The Republican primary schedule and rules
Polls showed McCain to be the GOPs strongest candidate v. Clinton or Obama
Maverick anti-establishment image
Least associated with Bush administration or Republican culture of corruption
7. The General Election E2000 and 2004 elections characterized by extremely closely divided electorate.
2008 shaping up similarly after McCain closed gap following GOP convention
GOP convention highlighted Obamas liabilities BUT
Financial tsunami of late September 2008 changed the whole context of the campaign away from national security/cultural issues
Ensured a comfortable victory for Obama with strengthened Democratic majorities in Congress (including a 60-vote Senate).
8. Red and Blue States : 2000-2008
9. 2008 Election By County
10. II. Misinterpreting the Election Sense of public euphoria around Obamas Inauguration
BUT pronounced decline in public approval later in 2009
Democratic hopes of major policy change meet political realities
Health Care
Climate Change
International Challenges
Afghanistan
Iran
Arab/Israeli Conflict
11. Realignment? Mandate? Many Democrats (and media commentators) believed 2008 election indicated realignment due to increasing support for Obama among:
Latinos
College-Educated Professionals/Upper Middle Class
Youngest Voters
Mandate for more activist government at home marking end of Reagan Era
Bank Regulation
Health Care
Environment
12. Realignment Evidence sketchy at best
Some demographic trends favor the Democrats but some secular forces moving other way
White working class
South/Appalachia
Older Voters
Obama Coalition Young, Minorities, Educated Professionals inherently unstable
Big Bang Realignment misleading concept?
Lack of Stable Party Ties
13. Mandate The concept of the mandate is a potential trap for Presidents
Obama won because:
He was a Democrat in a Democratic year (Pendulum Effect)
Recession
The financial meltdown of fall 2008
His mandate:
End the financial crisis
Bring about economic recovery
Not a big government mandate.
14. Obamas Declining Popularity
15. Presidential Approval Obamas first year is fairly typical of recent Presidents
Standard Pattern to a Presidency
Honeymoon and initial legislative successes (stimulus package)
Reality Check as underlying domestics and foreign policy problems inevitably intrude
Underlying party polarization asserts itself
Inevitable drop in presidential popularity
50-55% approval at end of first year PAR for the course.
16. III. The Obama Presidency NOT George W. Bush!
Cool, cerebral, analytical and consensual
Deliberative rather than decisive decision-making.
Polished speaker able to evoke symbolism of civil rights era
Danger of overexposure (as for most presidents no matter how articulate)
Popular with educated professionals and African Americans but Obama has problem with middle and working class whites (dating to 2008 Democratic primaries)
17. The Cabinet Mostly made up of figures from the Democratic party establishment representing the most important elements of the party coalition
Clinton
Napolitano
Salazar
Holder
Two interesting (and somewhat controversial) appointments
Robert Gates retained at Defense despite association with G. W. Bush administration Iraq and Afghanistan policy
Timothy Geithner named Treasury Secretary despite close association with failed Fed. Policies regarding Wall Street
18. The White House Staff Closest aides Emmanuel and Axelrod hardball Chicago partisans
Chief of Staff Rahm Emmanuel:
Architect of Democratic House Majority
Centrist Veteran of Clinton Adminstration
Very abrasive and partisan political style (contrast Andy Card and Josh Bolten)
David Axelrod
Chicago political consultant
Not clear aggressive style is working well with Congress, media, or public
19. Obama Domestic Initiatives Economic Stimulus Package passed very early in his presidency
Too limited?
Not directed to job-creating sectors like infrastructure
Unemployment stayed in double digits
Successful nomination of Sonia Sotomayor (first Latino/Latina) to Supreme Court
Financial Reform
Not seen by left as adequate but may be moving toward tougher posture
Climate Change
Stalled in Congress and unlikely to pass
Immigration Reform
Unlikely to get very far in current climate
20. Biggest Domestic Initiative: Health Care Major goal of the Democratic party since FDR to implement universal health care coverage
The Democratic majorities in House and Senate seemed to give Obama an opportunity
Obama deferred to congressional leadership on legislation
House and Senate bills expanded coverage through individual mandate and state health insurance exchanges (public option in House bill).
Neither bill popular with public
Fears of expanding deficit
Fears of losing current coverage
Fears to taxation to pay for health care to indigents
Major comprehensive bill now unlikely to pass
21. (Apparent) Failure of Health Care Obama administration and the Democrats in Congress misread degree of public enthusiasm for it
Misinterpreting the mandate again
Underestimated concerns about deficits
Obama deferred to congressional leadership
Put his political fate in hands of other political actors instead of exercising power (Richard Neustadt)
Did not make serious attempt to co-opt Republican minority
All serious social reform in US has been to some degree bipartisan
Senate Republicans vehemently and unanimously opposed bill
Deal making with individual legislators and allied interest groups to pass bill did not reflect well on Democrats.
22. Foreign/Security Policy Generally easier for Presidents Wildavsky
Obamas policy surprising similar to Bush in many aspects although very different in tone.
More multilateral approach (e.g: Iran)
Obama popular abroad Nobel Prize
Gained him nothing at home
Maintained Bush administration Iraq policy with solid withdrawal date
Under political pressure from right and left expanded American military commitment in Afghanistan to defeat Taliban and sustain Karzai regime
Climate Change
Copenhagen hardly a staggering success
Ambivalent posture on Honduras coup
Pledged to close Guantanamo and try terrorists in civil system but still adhering to many Bush anti-terror policies
New York trial of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed very politically controversial.
Tried to avoid War on Terror rhetoric but administration seriously embarrassed by Christmas underwear bomber scare.
23. IV. Governing in an Era of Polarization Obamas 2008 campaign was often held to be post-partisan
In the primary campaign against Hillary Clinton he generally appeared to be closer to the political center on domestic issues
e.g.: health care
Many were inspired by Obamas rhetoric which yearned for national unity and his campaign seemed to promise the healing of wounds and divisions in American politics
eg: race
Won the election because he convinced voters that he was not an ideologue, but had thoughtful and pragmatic answers to the problems facing the US at home and abroad.
Once in office postpartisanship proved to be illusory
24. Growing Partisanship in American Politics Since the mid-1970s Americas two major parties have become increasingly polarized
The Civil Rights revolution in the 1960s dramatically realigned the two major parties on ideological grounds:
Democrats more liberal, pro-government party
Republicans more conservative, anti-government party
The conservative Democratic South became the conservative Republican South
Much of the Republican North became increasingly Democratic
After 2008 election not a single Republican House member from New England states
American Politics became increasingly ideologically and geographically polarized
Rates of partisan voting in Congress increased dramatically since 1980.
American politics today most partisan since late 19th century
25. Election Maps: 2000-2008
26. Culture War The issues that seem to most clearly divide the party are cultural/lifestyle issues
Abortion/Reproductive issues
Gay Rights
Role of Religion in Public Life
2004 election the degree of religiosity rather than religious affiliation was the best predictor of presidential vote.
Traditionally poor conservative bible belt states of the South and Mountain West conservative Republican bastions (
Democrats dominant in the wealthy, coastal states
Midwestern/Great Lakes states competitive
27. Blasphemous Map
28. Polarized or just Closely Divided Morris Fiorina has questioned the degree to which American politics is really polarized as opposed to just closely divided.
Polls shows that most voters in most states not so polarized on cultural issues as party activists and candidates.
Fiorina blames unrepresentative American political elites for generating polarization between the parties.
Culture War is an illusion American is neither Red nor Blue But Purple.
29. Purple America
30. Party Polarization Matters BUT political elites matter more because:
They are political elites and general public tends to follow them politically over time.
They participate and vote at far greater rate than public at large
Polarized interest groups fund the parties and provide activists
Candidates and parties have to respond to them in terms of policy.
As center ground shrinks American elections become exercises in base mobilization rather than competing for centrist voters e.g.: 2004
31. Illusion of PostPartisanship 2008 election focused on economic issues seemed to demonstrate a longing to escape from the culture wars and polarization.
BUT Polarization returned with a vengeance not long after Obama became President and explains much of his falling approval ratings as Republicans and conservative independents returned to their normal positions.
Culture War is real for most politically active Americans
Reinforced by adversarial news media such as Cable TV and the Internet
Fox News & MSNBC
Huffington Post, Daily Kos & Netroots on Left
RealClearPolitics.com, Red State and Tea Partiers on Right
And ideological think tanks in Washington
Heritage and Cato Institutes, Center for American Progress
32. Partisanship in Congress Center ground in Congress has diminished greatly and particularly in the House
BUT most significant legislation needs 60 votes to pass the Senate
Depending on party composition of Congress there are three possible legislative strategies (C. Jones)
Bipartisanship - collaboration between party leaders
Crosspartisanship winning enough members of the other party to pass the bill
Pure/Competitive partisanship pass the bill with the votes of your own party
33. Obama Legislative Strategy Large Democratic majorities in Congress
256-178 in House
60-40 in Senate
Makes Competitive Partisanship possible but no margin for error in Senate
Obama got three Republican votes in the Senate to pass the stimulus package (1 switched parties later).
Climate Change Bill passed the House but no prospects of Senate passage
Health Care Bill passed House ((220-215, 1 Republican in favor) but unanimously opposed by Senate Republicans
Passed Senate only with Democratic votes and after prolonged negotiations to bring all Democratic Senators on board including favors to Senators
Mass. Special election provided 41 Republican Senators Bill dies in current form.
Democrats had numbers to enact change in Congress but maintaining party unity gets harder as next elections approaches
Democratic popularity collapsed and members starting to retire.
34. Why the Partisan Resurgence since 2008? The cultural divisions in the electorate are real and reinforced by party attachments which were submerged by the financial crisis late in the campaign and the euphoria of Obama inauguration.
Obamas popular vote margin in 2008 was relatively narrow at 53-46 particularly given the economic meltdown and poor McCain campaign.
Polarized reactions to the vice-presidential nomination of Sarah Palin indicated that culture war could easily be reignited
Despite convincing win Obama had significant electoral weaknesses among culturally conservative older voters, rural voters, and white working class the core of the grassroots tea-party movement.
35. What Happens Next? Obama lost the Republican-leaning groups early.
Now Obama administration caught between satisfying netroots constituency and independent voters who combined to elect him in 2008
Lost the upper middle-class independents on deficit and health care
Lost much of the Left on Afghanistan and Wall Street bailout
Facing possibly large Democratic losses in 2010 congressional elections and stalling of legislative agenda
Can he succeed by pivoting (or re-pivoting) to the center like Clinton and hope for economic recovery by 2012.
Or will he meet the same fate as Jimmy Carter?
36. V. Governing in a Separated System in the 2010s Often forget that the American system of government is configured to impede significant political change.
Procedures in Congress particularly the Senate make it even harder
The short two-year election cycle provides very limited window to implement major legislation.
Electoral mandates are tenuous and ephemeral especially in the context of deep-rooted party polarization
Presidents need to devise a policy agenda that matches public concerns and take advantage of short-term political opportunities
Obama misread public concerns by focusing on health care at the expense of the economy in his first year
37. Concerns Severe Economic Recession
Failure to control budget deficit/national debt
Deficit constrains expansionist government at home as Democrats discovered with health care.
Loss of status to China in economic and foreign policy
Increasing income disparities at home
Alienation from politics as expressed by tea party movement
Polarization between party elites filtering down to mass
38. Obamas Challenge Constraints of governing system, deficit, and political polarization plus difficult world situation make this a difficult time to be President even with comfortable congressional majorities
Burden of expectations always unreasonably high for Presidents and even more so for Obama
Continuing recession and midterm congressional elections would end possibility of major policy change in a leftward direction.
Major terrorist outrage or disaster in Afghanistan would undermine support for foreign policy.
Possibility of failed presidency that would undermine the Democratic party and American liberalism for some time to come.
39. Opportunities Economic recovery would certainly revive Democrats fortunes
Will it be strong enough?
Republicans still unpopular and could overplay their hand lose the center
Loss of effective control over Congress could allow Obama to recover in new role as check on ideologically conservative Congress
All of these allowed Bill Clinton to recover from disastrous start in 1990
Not clear if Obama has Bill Clintons degree of political agility