Climate Change: New Operations and Modeling Technologies

1. Climate Change: New Operations and Modeling Technologies Ants Leetmaa Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Princeton, NJ

2. OVERVIEW • The Grand Challenges for 21st Century • issues associated with population growth • a changing climate • Climate – a global forecast • Possible impacts of global warming • Necessary new products to meet emerging societal needs • Institutional challenges for the NMHSs

3. Population Growth and Associated Issues • 9 billion (B) people by 2050 (50% increase) • Increasing urbanization into mega-cities – 4B new city dwellers – aging populations • Food security – sustainable increases in food output/hectare of 200-300% required • Energy security • Resulting environmental issues • Water availability • Air pollution • Droughts/floods • Stress on planetary resources

4. Background: A Variety of Forecasts Weather • mostly regional, short-lived events • Deterministic forecasts • protection of life Seasonal climate • Global, seasons in advance • Probabilistic forecasts – deviations from normal seasons • Mitigation – energy,food,water,health, etc sectors Climate change scenarios • Global, visions of the future • Includes chemistry and biology modeling • Projections of possible future changes to climatologies • Understanding unintended consequences & adaptation • Solving the “carbon” problem

5. Need an Integrated Global Observing System Going Beyond the WWW

6. Climate: a global forecast -most socioeconomic sectors can be impacted -many risks and opportunities are globally correlated -likelihood of weather extremes changes with climate state

7. Possible Global Warming Impacts Annual Surface Air Temperature (deg C) Conditions at double pre-industrial values of CO2 GFDL R30 model Annual change in runoff (cm/yr) Summer Soil Moisture (cm) Wetter Drier

8. Some New Forecast Products –Weather and S/I • Food Security and Health • Drought including interactive vegetation • Heat threats • Pollution • Coastal ecosystems • Adaptation • Sea Level These will be needed even without significant global warming impacts

9. The Potential Exists for Drought Forecasts: Critical for food and water security Precipitation Departures June 1998 - May 2002 simulated observed ° Climate models forced with the observed sea surface temperatures simulate the severe dryness over the US and Asia during 1998 – 2002

10. Drought Forecasts First Steps: Nowcasting and Initialization – next steps – extending this to a North American product & ….

11. interactive mechanistic physiology for water and carbon fluxes (plants) biogeochemical cycling static or dynamic phenology, biomass, LAI, vegetation height, disturbance and biogeography on a slow time scales multi-layer soil hydrology with frozen soil snow cover runoff through a river network current and historical global land use (crop, pasture, tree harvesting) Dynamical Drought Forecasting: includes land cover, water and carbon dynamics models Exchange grid Tca, qca Tl, qsat(Tl) snow Tg1, q(Tl, θL1) θL1, θI 1, θLn, θI n Tg6 Ocean qsat(Ts)

12. Terrestrial Ecosystem Forecasting – First Steps: Modeling the Carbon Cycle Net primary productivity Diurnal cycle Annual cycle Equilibrium storage of carbon (kg/m2) in soils and plants

13. Pollution is a Global Issues

14. Total Ozone “Asian” Ozone Projected Surface Ozone Trends - Southern CA 1990 US EPA NAAQS 2030 Ozone impacts health and agriculture 2030

15. Implementing Chemistry-Climate-Air Quality Models Feedbacks Circulation Hydrological Cycle Climate Change Radiative Forcing Chemistry Transport Sinks Emissions Distributions Health Agriculture Air Quality

16. Global Air Quality & Pollution Increasing pressures to farm marginal regions result in increased aerosol transports during times of climate stress ? Gobi Desert Dust – April 2001 Black Blizzard, Dust Bowl U.S Kansas, 1935

17. Global Aerosol Transports African dust transport across the Atlantic • A simulation capability with observed winds exists • being incorporated into coupled climate change models Barbados-obs; simulated-black

18. Likely Increases in Health Threats: Mega-cities, older populations, pollution, increasing temperatures Excessive Heat Outlook Product - NWS

19. Ecological Forecasting: coastal systems are under increasing stress from population growth, chemical runoff, land use

20. An Increasingly Stressed Environment Hypoxia (biological dead zones) in the Gulf of Mexico:- linked to nitrogen (fertilizer) runoff from mid-West farming- depend on changes to runoff patterns- impact coastal fisheries- enhance likelihood of harmful algal blooms Frequency of Occurrence 1985 - 1999

21. Global Warming Impacts: Sea Level Rise – an existing and emerging threat to coasts and islands 4x CO2 2X Staff of Tuvalu, Funafuti, Meteorological Service (Southwestern Pacific) Time of doubling of CO2

22. Flooding at Tuvalu Meteorological Observatory, Funafuti Normal high elevation at Observatory is 3 meters

23. Sea Level Trends at Tuvalu (Increasing extremes result not just from slow trends) Trend=6.8+-2.8 mm/yr Trend=1.8 +-2.8 mm/yr Hourly data Monthly data Increase roughly at that for global sea level rise • 1990 2000 • 1990 2000 Larger trend in hourly data results from high spring tides, higher seasonal maximum, variations associated with weather events and long term trend.

24. Will your future forecasts be relevant? Now- 80 degrees, partly cloudy, winds calm Needed- water levels peaking at 4 meters in 36 hours; subsiding over 3 weeks Or will you just move your country? What will be or are your pressing new problem needs?

25. Your Ability to Develop New Products is Limited • Technology progresses faster than the demand for new products • Since these are not your main products, developmental resources will be inadequate • new demand must be generated -oceanographers and climate guys will play this role • You are failure adverse – new products entail risks • The niche will be filled. Since your core business is elsewhere, the opportunity exists for innovators to move in • Who will the new players be?

26. Likely Future Product Cycle and Players ‘Prototype’ ‘Reliability’ ‘Convenience’ ‘Public’ Research entities Specialized centers by region or sector Private Sector NMHSs • Some Future Think • Think interdisciplinary • Think specialized centers • Think new partnerships