Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

1. Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

2. Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

3. Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation Project Description • Required works to be done under this project: • Preparation of design and safety projects of all applications • Determination of project consultant • Guardrail installation (totally 250 km) • Pedestrian overpass/underpasses installation (totally 10 locations) • Installation of signalisations on existing junctions (totally 12 location ) • Implementation of new interchange (junctions) (totally 2 locations) • Existing junctions improvement (totally 5 locations) • Select the appropriate impact measures • Select the appropriate analysis method • Evaluating economic impacts of the project. • Estimated investment cost • 52 Million €

4. Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation • This project route • is part of future TEN-T Road Network for Turkey and priority project route in TINA Turkey study • is HLG short-term priority project/and route • is providing connection to Zonguldak, Filyos, Samsun and Trabzon Ports of Black Sea Region • This project section is a transit route between Europe, Caucasia and Asia • Part of TINA for Turkey Core Road Network and priority route in TINA study • The objective of TINA for Turkey is to define a multi-modal transport network (Core Network) designed to extend the European Union's TEN-T network into Turkey • Now, the Core Transport Network that is determined at the end of TINA study, is negotiated between EC and Turkey within chapter 21 “Trans European Network” • This project route is a part of • continuation of Pan-European Transport Corridor IV • E-road, HLG south-east axes, BSEC,TRACECA, ECO, UN/ESCAP, TEM and Euro-Asian Road

5. Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation Project General Objectives • Preventing accident with fatal, injured and damaged, • Capacity increase in mountainous region, • Reducing travel time on whole route, • Generate new economic development and create new demand, • Improving the accessibility, • Increasing road safety level on TRACECA route. • Decreasing the user coast

6. Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation Actual and Future Demand • Traffic Volume (2008 - vehicles/day) • Maximum AADT :7.070 • Minimum AADT :3.150 • Heavy vehicle changing ratio 25% - 35% • Traffic Volume (forecasting in TINA project, 2020 – vehicles / day) • Future traffic flows (2020) are estimated using a transport demand model. • The model uses a single socio-economic scenario and three different infrastructure scenarios (Reference, Long-term Investment and Alternative Scenario) • AADT:5.000 - 10.000 Financial Analysis • PPP application has not been available yet. • There isn’t any existing FA study. • There is no any updated Feasibility study

7. Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation • According to our estimations (if Turkey has enough financing sources) • start year of the project : 2013 • end year of project : 2015 • Roughly estimated cost :52 million € (for whole project) • This project is not suitable directly for interesting of private investors with PPP approach at the moment. • Economic benefit due to reduction in number of accidents resulting from increase in geometrical and physical standards • Time savings due to increase in vehicle speed

8. Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation Existing situation • Divided highway with interrupted flow increase road user impacts (money cost of travel, travel time, safety, comfort, reliability etc.) • According to 2009 accident data, there are 939 accidents on Gerede-Gürbulak road section. On 939 accidents, 113 deaths, 4.913 injuries and 2.017 vehicle property damages has occurred. After project implemented • It is estimated that the user costs will decrease 50%. • According to 2011 current prices, an estimated profit of 75 million € will be provided when the result of reduction of user cost. • Estimated B/C ratio is 1,44 • Economic impacts (value added, property value etc)will increase. 8

9. Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation • Total annual vehicle that is entered into Turkey and exited from Turkey • Gürbulak Border Gate to IRAN  232.447 vehicles / year (Heavy vehicle ratio : 71%, in 2010) 9

10. Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation 10

11. Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation 11

12. Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

13. Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation