Informed NPS Air Quality Management Decisions in Response to a Changing Climate

1. Informed NPS Air Quality Management Decisions in Response to a Changing Climate

2. Climate Change: A Potential new “Source” of Pollutant Increased wildfire Ecosystem alterations e.g. beetle kill Increased dust storms Increased biogenic emissions • Changes in human activates • Population shift

3. Framework for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on NPS AQRVs Air quality forcersin a changing climate Emissions • Natural • Fires: RN, PM, VOCs, Hg • Vegetation:NH3, VOCs • Soil: RN, Dust • Anthropogenic • Human response • Population shift Effects AtmosphericProcesses • Transport • Precipitation • Cloud cover Air Quality • Ambient • Particulate Matter • Ozone • Deposition • Reactive Nitrogen • Sulfur Compounds • Mercury AQRV(Goals) • Visibility • Natural Background • Vegetation damage • Critical load • Water quality • Critical load • Wildlife • Cultural resources ARD: Assess impact on goals and progress Role for ARD Input to ARD

4. Changing Climate’s Affect onNPS AQRVs • Long Term: Impacts on meeting long term AQRV goals • Haze: • Change in natural background haze goal • Anthropogenic (U.S. and International) contributions to haze due to human adaptation to new climate • Ozone: • Primary and secondary NAAQS standards • Natural and anthropogenic contributions to ozone in relation to primary and secondary NAAQS • Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition: • Change in goals: Shifts in ecology could change the critical load • Natural and anthropogenic contributions in relation to critical loads – affect planning (change control strategies)

5. Changing Climate’s Affect onNPS AQRVs • Near term issues • Has recent changes in climate contributed to changes in emissions and air quality? • Climate change “contribution” to increased NH4 wet deposition in the late 90’s and early 2000’s • Effect of wide spread beetle kill on ozone and SOA • Transition issues (current to long-term): • How will changes in air quality effect on changing ecosystems • Enhance evasive species, push out native species, etc. Then adaptation strategies could be developed

6. Current Issue Regional precipitation N trends Lehman et al., 2005 Wet nitrate (NO3-) concentration deposition trends Wet ammonium (NH4-) concentration deposition trends • Increasing trends not likely due to increased Agricultural activities • Trends were greatest from 1995 – 2002; period of increasing temperatures and drought

7. Future issue: Increased N Compounds from Fires • High reactive N concentrations in smoke plume Carrico et al., • Fires are a likely large but poorly quantified source if reactive nitrogen • As fires increase with a warming climate so will the RN emissions • RN from fires is not being considered by others

8. Current Project: Effects of the Changing Climate on Air Quality and Resources National Parks • Assess the impact of climate change on park air quality • Ozone • Nitrogen deposition • Haze • Global model (NCAR coupled chemistry-climate model) • IPCC 2050 projected emission inventory