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Briefing on “ Flood Situation in the Country”

Briefing on “ Flood Situation in the Country” August 05, 2009 Sequence of Presentation Monsoon Season Forecast Weather Outlook For The Next One week C. Latest River Discharge Position D. Present Reservoir Elevation Position E. Reservoir Water Storage Position

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Briefing on “ Flood Situation in the Country”

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  1. Briefing on“Flood Situation in the Country” August 05, 2009

  2. Sequence of Presentation • Monsoon Season Forecast • Weather Outlook For The Next One week C. Latest River Discharge Position D. Present Reservoir Elevation Position E. Reservoir Water Storage Position • Revised SOP for Raised Mangla Dam • Upto-date Damages

  3. INDUS RIVER SYSTEM

  4. INDUS RIVER SYSTEMWATER AVAILABILITY WATER SOURCES • Snowmelt & Glacier Melt • Runoff generated from rainfall Annual Flows 144 MAF (178 BCM) High Flow Season (Apr. to Sep) 117 MAF (145 BCM) 82% of Annual flows Low Flow Season (Oct. to Mar) 27 MAF (33 BCM) 18% of Annual flows

  5. A. Monsoon Season Forecast Ist: End June 2009 +10%(above normal) 2nd: July 04, 2009 - 10%(below normal) 3rd: July 16, 2009 -30%(below normal)

  6. A. Monsoon Season Forecast Need For Revision in Seasonal Forecast: -Rapidly changing met conditions over Pakistan; -Due to development of El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean; -El-Nino is the abnormal warming of the Pacific Ocean during some of the years; -Developed very rapidly in June 2009; -Likely to strengthen in the coming months; -Likely to continue till next winter

  7. A. Monsoon Season Forecast Likely Impact of El Nino: -Impact on agriculture output and water resources; -When occurs it disturbs normal weather pattern around the globe; -In Pakistan it generally suppresses the monsoon rainfall; Note: Many countries including India have revised their seasonal weather forecast

  8. B. Weather Outlook For The Next One Week

  9. C. Latest River Flow Position (August 05, 2009) River Indus At: Inflow /OutflowFlood Category (In Cusecs)   Tarbela Reservoir 257,000 / 189,000 Normal         Kalabagh 258,000 / 249,000 Normal         Chashma Reservoir 250,000 / 223,000 Normal         Taunsa 222,000 / 194,000 Normal         Guddu 161,000 / 125,000 Normal         Sukkur 113,000 / 56,000 Normal Kotri 50,000 / 14,000 Normal River Kabul At:          Warsak 46,000 Medium Flood (F) Nowshera 64,000 Medium Flood (F) (Contd. next page)

  10. C. Latest River Flow Position (August 05, 2009) River Jhelum At: Inflow / OutflowFlood Category (In Cusecs)          Mangla Reservoir 39,000 / 15,000 Normal Rasul 8,000 / Nil Normal River Chenab At: Marala 79,000 / 44,000 Normal         Khanki 42,000 / 34,000 Normal         Qadirabad 35,000 / 13,000 Normal         Trimmu 19,000 / 3,000 Normal Panjnad 14,000 / Nil Normal (Contd. next page)

  11. C. Latest River Flow Position (August 05, 2009) River Ravi At: Inflow / OutflowFlood Category (In Cusecs)         Jassar 3,000 Normal         Shahdra 16,000 Normal         Balloki 38,000 / 6,000 Normal Sidhnai 20,000 / 5,000 Normal River Sutlej At:          Suleimanki 17,000 / 2,000 Normal Islam 3,000 / Nil Normal

  12. D. Reservoir Elevation Position ReservoirM.C.L (ft.)Aug 05, 2009 Aug 05, 2008 Tarbela 1550.00 1531.00 1519.83 Bal. Available 19.00 (+11.17) Chashma 649.00 647.20 646.20 Bal. Available 1.80 (+1.00) Mangla 1202.00* 1197.60 1185.90 Bal. Available 4.40 (+11.70) * Shall be revised to 1210.00

  13. E. Reservoir Water Storage Position Reservoir Max. Live Storage On Live Storage Storage Aug 05, 2009Left (MAF) (MAF) (MAF) Tarbela 6.849 5.766 (84.19%) 1.083 (1550.00 ft.) Chashma 0.263 0.186 (70.72%) 0.077 (649.00 ft.) Mangla 4.542 4.296 (94.58%) 0.246 (1202.00 ft.) ---------- --------- ---------- Total: 11.654 10.248 (87.94%) 1.406

  14. E. Reservoir Water Storage Position Reservoir Max. Live Storage On Live Storage Storage Aug 05, 2009Left (MAF) (MAF) (MAF) Tarbela 6.849 5.766 (84.19%) 1.083 (1550.00 ft.) Chashma 0.263 0.186 (70.72%) 0.077 (649.00 ft.) Mangla 5.072 4.296 (84.70%) 0.776 (1210.00 ft.) ---------- --------- ---------- Total: 12.184 10. 248 (84.11%) 1.936

  15. F. Revised SOP For Raised Mangla DamSalient Features

  16. Flood Limits

  17. Categories Of Floods

  18. Available Information/Data Forecasts: • Qualitative Forecast • Quantitative Forecast Real Time Data: • Flood Warning Stations Data • Weather Radar • Satellite Imageries

  19. Schematic Diagram Of River Jhelum & Tributaries

  20. Forecasts Qualitative Forecast: FFD shall provide qualitative forecast minimum 24-36 hours in advance of actual precipitation indicating the intensity of depression in relation to previous historical floods. Category of floods shall also be indicated. Quantitative Forecast: FFD shall provide Quantitative forecast about 12 hours in advance of actual peak describing range of peak and expected minimum and maximum volume of flood hydrograph.

  21. FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH MANGLA RESERVOIR (Category-I Floods – 3 to 5 Lacs Cusecs)

  22. FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH MANGLA RESERVOIR Category-II Floods – 5 to 7 Lacs Cusecs Continued next page………..

  23. FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH MANGLA RESERVOIRCategory-II Floods – 5 to 7 Lacs Cusecs

  24. FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH MANGLA RESERVOIR Category-III Floods – Above 7 Lacs Cusecs Continued next page………..

  25. FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH MANGLA RESERVOIR Category-III Floods – Above 7 Lacs Cusecs

  26. Liaison With Different Organizations Chief Engineer Mangla. Superintending Engineer (Hydrology) WAPDA Member (Water) GM (P&D) GM (Hydel) C.E.(H&WM) C.E. (DSO). OTHERS Chairman (FFC) F.F.D. D.C. Jhelum D.C. Mirpur Pak Army

  27. D.C. MIRPUR Mangla Dam Flood Data Dessimination IRRIGATION DEPARTMENT MANGLA HYDROLOGY DIRECTORATE MANGLA POLICE WIRELESS COMMUNICATION MANGLA PAK ARMY MANGLA D.C.O. JHLEUM WAPDA WIRELESS COMMUNICATION MANGLA WAPDA WIRELESS STATION SUNNY VIEW LAHORE NATIONAL FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION LAHORE TO ALL CIVIL ADMINISTRATION

  28. Structural Flood Damages 2009 (Balochistan) As reported by PID, Balochistan, damages occurred to structures are: Protection Bund from Imam Ghundi to end of Airport: 40ft of Flood Protection Bund on Lehri River alongwith apron has been eroded. 22nd Distribution system (Gogi) at Lehri: Some damages, occurred in Lehri area, have been reported however detail of damages is awaited from PID, Balochistan. Khatoor Flood Irrigation scheme: 60ft Bhag Flood Protection Bund have reportedly damaged.

  29. Breach incident in Damani Dam in Balochistan A breach occurred in Damani Dam due to heavy downpour of 88 mm during the night between July 22 & July 23, 2009 in District Barkhan Balochistan which resulted into flooding of nearby villages causing damages to houses and other infrastructure. As reported by PID, Balochistan, neither any casualty of human life nor that of cattle head was reported. Similarly no damage to houses or other infrastructure could be ascertained. Nevertheless very few irrigated fields/bandits in the area were effected/breached due to excessive water stored at there.

  30. Thank You

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