Children and Youth in MENA: The Need for Cross-Sector and Inclusive Policies

1. Children and Youth in MENA:The Need for Cross-Sector and Inclusive Policies Conference on Children and Youth in the Middle East Beirut, Lebanon December 6-8, 2010 Haneen Sayed Regional Youth Co-Coordinator Human Development Coordinator MENA Region The World Bank

2. In MENA countries two-thirds of the population is under 24 years old. MENA countries undergoing �youth bulge�: youth population (age 15-24) growing faster than any other age group (growth rate second only to sub-Saharan Africa)In MENA countries two-thirds of the population is under 24 years old. MENA countries undergoing �youth bulge�: youth population (age 15-24) growing faster than any other age group (growth rate second only to sub-Saharan Africa)

3. The Youth Bulge Creates a Demographic Window of Opportunity Economies can benefit from a majority of individuals entering their productive peak, while the share of the population that elderly is still remains fairly small. East Asia successfully took advantage of young population (25-40% of rapid growth between 1965 and 1990 in Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, and Singapore attributed to the higher growth of the working age population). For all MENA countries, the window of opportunity will remain open for at least the next 10 years. For Yemen, Iraq and West Bank and Gaza the window will remain open beyond 2050. The relative rise in the labor supply creates possibilities for enhanced growth through a rise in output per capita coupled with higher savings and investment from workers.The relative rise in the labor supply creates possibilities for enhanced growth through a rise in output per capita coupled with higher savings and investment from workers.

4. Youth unemployment rates highest in MENA 4 Youth unemployment rates in MENA are higher than in any other region in the world. Young women and new educated entrants in the labor market are disproportionately unemployed. Moreover, young entrants to the labor market have become more educated than ever before but are unable to capitalize on the time and resources invested in their education because of lack of good-quality jobs in the respective labor markets. Youth unemployment rates in MENA are higher than in any other region in the world. Young women and new educated entrants in the labor market are disproportionately unemployed. Moreover, young entrants to the labor market have become more educated than ever before but are unable to capitalize on the time and resources invested in their education because of lack of good-quality jobs in the respective labor markets.

5. Unemployment higher among youth and females Unemployment higher among the more educated (World Bank 2007); also in Egypt from ELMPS 1998 and 2006 Source for the figure: Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey 2006 and Jordanian EUS 2007Unemployment higher among the more educated (World Bank 2007); also in Egypt from ELMPS 1998 and 2006 Source for the figure: Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey 2006 and Jordanian EUS 2007

6. Another interesting dimension is to look at youth Unemplyment by level of education. One very common assumption is that unemployment rates are higher for university grads � but even with our limited data ability � we need to really think carefully when we focus on that � true for Morocco and Algeria but not for all countries But the distribution of unemployment by education is not uniform across countries. ? Only few countries have steep unemployment rates for university graduates , even give the data limitation. - This graph includes the entire labor force 15-64. But we saw in the previous slide that at least 2/3 if not more of these unemployed are the young. Another interesting dimension is to look at youth Unemplyment by level of education. One very common assumption is that unemployment rates are higher for university grads � but even with our limited data ability � we need to really think carefully when we focus on that � true for Morocco and Algeria but not for all countries But the distribution of unemployment by education is not uniform across countries. ? Only few countries have steep unemployment rates for university graduates , even give the data limitation. - This graph includes the entire labor force 15-64. But we saw in the previous slide that at least 2/3 if not more of these unemployed are the young.

7. But most unemployed have only primary education This graph shows that even in countries with high rates of unemployment for graduates, the stock of unemployed is constituted by less educated youth. s suggests that policymakers have to be cautious against an exclusive focus on policies supporting unemployed graduates, because the bulk of the unemployed youth are less educated. Comaparison with more recent data for Morocco and Syria confirms this finding also for the youth. This graph shows that even in countries with high rates of unemployment for graduates, the stock of unemployed is constituted by less educated youth. s suggests that policymakers have to be cautious against an exclusive focus on policies supporting unemployed graduates, because the bulk of the unemployed youth are less educated. Comaparison with more recent data for Morocco and Syria confirms this finding also for the youth.

8. Early childhood challenges in MENA Low rates of enrollment in pre-school / child care: access and quality High rates of home births and limited pre- post- natal care in rural areas or marginal urban areas in some countries High rates of children malnutrition in some countries Little involvement of communities Emphasis on pre-primary learning rather than on early stimulation and interactive development Data availability and M&E

9. Low Rates of Enrollment in Pre-school

10. Despite heavy investment in education quality remains below international standardsMean 8th Grade TIMMS Scores for Participating Middle Eastern Countries, 2007

11. Employers are concerned with the skills of new entrants into the Labor Market

12. Cost of Inaction: Youth bulge becomes drain on growth and societyEstimates of the Cost of Foregone Income for Secondary School Leavers (as a % of 2003 GDP, PPP adjusted) If investments are not made in youth, there is risk that the youth bulge may manifest itself as a drain on growth and society, rather than a dividend.If investments are not made in youth, there is risk that the youth bulge may manifest itself as a drain on growth and society, rather than a dividend.

13. Cost of Inaction Early unemployment has persistent and long lasting effects on future employment and earnings Unemployment increases the likelihood of future unemployment Delays gains in experience that has a positive impact on future earnings Links are also made between youth unemployment and crime although less substantiated through evidence.

14. Cost of Inaction: The Costs of Youth Joblessness in the Middle East as Percent of GDP

15. Youth Transitions Youth require specific policy attention not only because they are currently so numerous but also because they must navigate more of life�s transitions in a short time frame than any other age group: Learning Working Migrating Staying healthy and forming families Active Participation Capacities build during childhood and youth period largely determine adult outcomes

16. Effective Policies for Child and Youth Development: Comprehensive and Cross-sector Policies related to Business Environment/Investments: Growth needs to be higher to create more jobs - private sector led (18 million new jobs needed in the next decade). Investments in jobs of higher quality. Policies related to ECD, Education, Skills, Labor Markets, Participation Getting children off to the right start Ensuring the all students learn Building job-relevant skills (technical, cognitive, and non-cognitive) Encouraging entrepreneurship and innovation Facilitating labor mobility and job matching Youth volunteerism programs and civic participation

17. Investments in the private sector remain low: not enough quality jobs created to keep up with labor supply 17 Investments in the private sector remain low . There are important constraints in the demand side, the private sector is not creating high quality jobs to keep up with labor supply. Due to high energy subsidies and negative real interest rates, most private investments in MENA focus on capital intensive activities. According to ICA surveys, corruption, unfair competition, and macro-economic uncertainly are important barriers to greater private investment. (The recent World Bank private sector regional flagship report identified the issues of arbitrariness and unequal implementation of the rules of the game as the core problems constraining private sector development. While progress in reforming the rules vary among countries, the region as a whole suffers from discretionary implementation of policies, and from lack of government credibility to change a deeply rooted status quo of privileges and unequal treatment of investors. No MENA country exhibits the kind of dynamism and economic transformation witnessed in Malaysia, China, the Republic of Korea, Poland, Turkey, and other fast-growing economies. Export diversification is also insufficient. The best MENA performers export around 1,500 goods�most of which low in technological content�compared with close to 4,000 in countries like Poland, Malaysia or Turkey. The technological content of these exports is about three times lower in non-oil MENA countries compared to East Asia�s or Eastern Europe. Also, firms are less productive than in comparative countries.) Investments in the private sector remain low . There are important constraints in the demand side, the private sector is not creating high quality jobs to keep up with labor supply. Due to high energy subsidies and negative real interest rates, most private investments in MENA focus on capital intensive activities. According to ICA surveys, corruption, unfair competition, and macro-economic uncertainly are important barriers to greater private investment. (The recent World Bank private sector regional flagship report identified the issues of arbitrariness and unequal implementation of the rules of the game as the core problems constraining private sector development. While progress in reforming the rules vary among countries, the region as a whole suffers from discretionary implementation of policies, and from lack of government credibility to change a deeply rooted status quo of privileges and unequal treatment of investors. No MENA country exhibits the kind of dynamism and economic transformation witnessed in Malaysia, China, the Republic of Korea, Poland, Turkey, and other fast-growing economies. Export diversification is also insufficient. The best MENA performers export around 1,500 goods�most of which low in technological content�compared with close to 4,000 in countries like Poland, Malaysia or Turkey. The technological content of these exports is about three times lower in non-oil MENA countries compared to East Asia�s or Eastern Europe. Also, firms are less productive than in comparative countries.)

18. Competitiveness will need to improve

19. Labor market rigidities also an issue

20. Getting children off to the right start 20 Integrated care and education of young children Emphasis on universal access to care and education Targeting of children who are poor, disadvantaged or at risk Substantial public investment in ECD Attention to quality Expansion of the supply of early interventions to young children under 3 Timing of ECD measures is equally important as the intervention itself. The different interventions vary based on whether its given while the mother is still pregnant or after the child is born. Many interventions last over many months or years and there may be overlap between the timing of interventions as well. Physical development interventions include ensuring mother�s well being during pregnancy, i.e. her health and nutrition for the development of a healthy fetus and breast milk. It also includes immunizations, regular health checks and providing nutrition information after the child is born up until the age of 5. The other interventions are targeted at the child mainly and start from birth. They develop the cognitive, socio-emotional and language skills of the child by providing the right environment for the child to develop these aspects. Timing of ECD measures is equally important as the intervention itself. The different interventions vary based on whether its given while the mother is still pregnant or after the child is born. Many interventions last over many months or years and there may be overlap between the timing of interventions as well. Physical development interventions include ensuring mother�s well being during pregnancy, i.e. her health and nutrition for the development of a healthy fetus and breast milk. It also includes immunizations, regular health checks and providing nutrition information after the child is born up until the age of 5. The other interventions are targeted at the child mainly and start from birth. They develop the cognitive, socio-emotional and language skills of the child by providing the right environment for the child to develop these aspects.

21. Ensuring that all students learn 21 Policies must target the building blocks of an education system, which are: Standards Teachers Resources Regulation Governance of these building blocks 3As: Autonomy, Accountability, Assessment Standards: By defining clearly the knowledge and skills that students are expected to gain, they will better understand what is expected of them, schools will cater programs accordingly, teachers will know what they will be held accountable for, and school managers will be challenged to seek the means to raise the level of teaching and learning. Teachers: Most teacher related investments focus on pre and in-service training, but to improve teaching force, policies must provide teachers with incentives for good performance aside from enforcing proper qualifications. Resources: Without adequate resources for key inputs it is hard to achieve standards and goals set for a school system. Resources must be allocated properly and distributed equitably across schools. Regulatory environment: Managing various inputs requires monitoring and control to ensure adequate provision. A good regulatory environment encourages good governance, establishes mechanisms that allow for choice and voice, and promotes equity in financing and results. 3As: Autonomy: Greater autonomy can give schools the flexibility to empower teachers and parents, thus increasing teacher morale. In well performing school systems, the local government and schools have substantial responsibility for educational content and resource use. Accountability: There needs to be an accountability framework that enhances community and parental interest. It contributes to quality by involving the stakeholders and by setting clear goals and standards for the system. If schools and students are responsible for results, they will ensure that homework is done, that students and teachers are in class, and that administrators acquire appropriate inputs. Assessment: High performing countries use information to constantly focus on improvements over time. Countries use national standards tests and for cross country comparision use international ahievement tests to benchmark their performance. Standards: By defining clearly the knowledge and skills that students are expected to gain, they will better understand what is expected of them, schools will cater programs accordingly, teachers will know what they will be held accountable for, and school managers will be challenged to seek the means to raise the level of teaching and learning. Teachers: Most teacher related investments focus on pre and in-service training, but to improve teaching force, policies must provide teachers with incentives for good performance aside from enforcing proper qualifications. Resources: Without adequate resources for key inputs it is hard to achieve standards and goals set for a school system. Resources must be allocated properly and distributed equitably across schools. Regulatory environment: Managing various inputs requires monitoring and control to ensure adequate provision. A good regulatory environment encourages good governance, establishes mechanisms that allow for choice and voice, and promotes equity in financing and results. 3As: Autonomy: Greater autonomy can give schools the flexibility to empower teachers and parents, thus increasing teacher morale. In well performing school systems, the local government and schools have substantial responsibility for educational content and resource use. Accountability: There needs to be an accountability framework that enhances community and parental interest. It contributes to quality by involving the stakeholders and by setting clear goals and standards for the system. If schools and students are responsible for results, they will ensure that homework is done, that students and teachers are in class, and that administrators acquire appropriate inputs. Assessment: High performing countries use information to constantly focus on improvements over time. Countries use national standards tests and for cross country comparision use international ahievement tests to benchmark their performance.

22. As economies develop the type of skills demanded is likely to change 22

23. Building job-relevant skills 23 Job-relevant skills include those relevant to the specific job of the worker as well as other skills that enhance productivity: Problem-solving skills Learning skills Communication skills Personal skills Social skills Pre-employment training On the job training Skills certification Volunteerism/internships Job relevant skills are those that are valued by employers and are useful for self employment as well. Problem-solving skills or the capacity to think critically and analyze. Learning skills or the ability to acquire new knowledge Communication skills, including reading and writing Personal skills for self-management, making sound judgments, and managing risks. Social skills to collaborate with and motivate others in a team, manage client relations, exercise leadership, resolve conflicts, and develop social networks The share of firms worried about inadequate worker skills averages about 11% for OECD countries, 15% for South Asia, 39% in MNA, 30% in ECA, 32% in Latin America.Job relevant skills are those that are valued by employers and are useful for self employment as well. Problem-solving skills or the capacity to think critically and analyze. Learning skills or the ability to acquire new knowledge Communication skills, including reading and writing Personal skills for self-management, making sound judgments, and managing risks. Social skills to collaborate with and motivate others in a team, manage client relations, exercise leadership, resolve conflicts, and develop social networks The share of firms worried about inadequate worker skills averages about 11% for OECD countries, 15% for South Asia, 39% in MNA, 30% in ECA, 32% in Latin America.

24. Volunteerism: Missing Bridge between Education and Employment Only 11% of MENA youth had volunteered any time to an organization (Gallup poll, 2006/07) 15 % of youth participated in recreation and sports associations in Morocco In Egypt, only 3.3% of young males and 1 % of young females took part in voluntary activities MENA youth discouraged from investing time in voluntary work because neither universities, nor employers value voluntary work Desired jobs rationed solely by test scores and credentials rather than volunteerism being considered sign of productivity. Invest in scaled-up volunteerism and service learning programs

25. Encouraging entrepreneurship and innovationUnlocking entrepreneurship and innovation is facilitated by three factors related to human development, and accompanying policies 25 First, individuals need a range of skills Second, these skills and the ideas flowing from them have to be connected to others Third, productivity increases when innovative small business owners can grow with the aid of risk management tools or as innovative skilled workers enter the labor market For innovation to grow, innovators need other skilled individuals to share ideas with, bring those to market, capital to finance the realization of the idea and enabling environment that accepts new ideas First, individuals need a range of skills Some developed in steps 1, 2, and 3: basic literacy and numeracy, problem solving, and social/interpersonal skills Other skills that are innovation-specific, including �divergent thinking� -- imagining several responses to a single problem rather than converging to a single, right answer. Second, these skills and the ideas flowing from them have to be connected to others These can be done through migration policies that geographically concentrate innovative thinking Also with the use of innovation spaces where governments fund universities to emerge as centers of excellence, and publicly funded incentives for greater collaboration between universities and the private sector. Third, productivity increases when innovative small business owners can grow with the aid of risk management tools (step 4) or as innovative skilled workers enter the labor market (step 5) The poorest innovators need social safety nets to ensure that their families survive if the innovations fail. All need policies that ensure a monopoly of returns from marketable innovations�patents, copyright laws�which lower the income risk associated with developing non-rival ideas First, individuals need a range of skills Some developed in steps 1, 2, and 3: basic literacy and numeracy, problem solving, and social/interpersonal skills Other skills that are innovation-specific, including �divergent thinking� -- imagining several responses to a single problem rather than converging to a single, right answer. Second, these skills and the ideas flowing from them have to be connected to others These can be done through migration policies that geographically concentrate innovative thinking Also with the use of innovation spaces where governments fund universities to emerge as centers of excellence, and publicly funded incentives for greater collaboration between universities and the private sector. Third, productivity increases when innovative small business owners can grow with the aid of risk management tools (step 4) or as innovative skilled workers enter the labor market (step 5) The poorest innovators need social safety nets to ensure that their families survive if the innovations fail. All need policies that ensure a monopoly of returns from marketable innovations�patents, copyright laws�which lower the income risk associated with developing non-rival ideas

26. Facilitating labor mobility and job matching 26 Governments can help through providing a better combination of job and income protection policies and more proactive approaches to employment services and skills certification. Labor laws that give employers more flexibility in managing human resources More flexible regulation of hiring and dismissal procedures Innovations in income protection systems that provide an alternative to expensive severance pay systems Better worker protection Facilitate mobility Employment services that provide both intermediation and counseling to help individuals find better jobs Employment services seem to work better when linked to unemployment benefits, training, and competency assessment programs in �one-stop shops.� The combination of rigid job protection regulations and weak income protection systems can be detrimental to labor mobility as seen in Chile, Colombia, Brazil and India. Rigid hiring and dismissal procedures reduce turnover and employment. At the same time, lack of appropriate income protection systems in developing countries, as well as limited benefit probability of social insurance benefits can reduce the incentives for workers to transition between jobs. Employment services that provide intermediation (providing lists of vacancies) and counseling (providing practical help to job-seekers preparing CVs, providing guidance) can be fairly low-cost mechanism to help individuals find better jobs. In Lebanon, 55% of young workers who found a job in 2009 used personal contacts, only 2% used employment services. International experience shows the following to be successful design for employment services: Providing incentives for job-seekers and employers to join Integrating employment services with training and competency assessment programs Decentralizing management and expanding role of the private sector with clear targets Exploiting information technologies The combination of rigid job protection regulations and weak income protection systems can be detrimental to labor mobility as seen in Chile, Colombia, Brazil and India. Rigid hiring and dismissal procedures reduce turnover and employment. At the same time, lack of appropriate income protection systems in developing countries, as well as limited benefit probability of social insurance benefits can reduce the incentives for workers to transition between jobs. Employment services that provide intermediation (providing lists of vacancies) and counseling (providing practical help to job-seekers preparing CVs, providing guidance) can be fairly low-cost mechanism to help individuals find better jobs. In Lebanon, 55% of young workers who found a job in 2009 used personal contacts, only 2% used employment services. International experience shows the following to be successful design for employment services: Providing incentives for job-seekers and employers to join Integrating employment services with training and competency assessment programs Decentralizing management and expanding role of the private sector with clear targets Exploiting information technologies

27. Expanding Knowledge on Children and Youth Issues and Policies in MENA Most of what is known about the impact of the transitions or the effectiveness of children and youth programs comes from research carried out in other regions. There is a large set of unanswered questions and knowledge gaps: General lack of data on Children and Youth in region Core Transitions. There are a variety of questions about the core transitions that need further research, including the relationship between youth and the informal sector, the school-to-work transition and migration, among others. Social Inclusion and Empowerment. More systematic study of these concepts is needed with a view toward identifying operational implications; and Program Effectiveness and Impact Evaluation. There needs for evidence-based policy making therefore greater emphasis on impact evaluating programs.