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September 16, 2019| Variable resources working group

September 16, 2019| Variable resources working group. Helve Saarela. Lead Engineer, Resources studies and assessments. Update on the FCM Qualified Capacity Estimating Tool for Photovoltaic (PV) Resources. Objective.

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September 16, 2019| Variable resources working group

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  1. September 16, 2019| Variable resources working group Helve Saarela Lead Engineer, Resources studies and assessments Update on the FCM Qualified Capacity Estimating Tool for Photovoltaic (PV) Resources

  2. Objective This presentation seeks to update the VRWG on the relationship between the Forward Capacity Market (FCM) Qualified Capacity (QC) values obtained using the Intermittent Resource Data Analysis Tool developed by ISO-NE, and actual production values for photovoltaic (PV) generating capacity resources

  3. Background The current tool was developed in late 2014/early 2015 and put into place for the FCA 10 qualification This current tool is an enhanced version of the original tool, which was developed in late 2013/early 2014 • Enhancement sought to more appropriately account for daylight savings time • Enhancement was discussed at the March 30, 2015 VRWG meeting The tool aims to estimate the proposed project’s ultimate Seasonal Claimed Capability (SCC) once it is built and its capacity is operational in the wholesale market On average the overall QC values of all commercial resources trends around 42% of nameplate Based on the PV data used in this analysis the tool appears to be tracking in the right direction

  4. Comparison of Estimated Output to Actual Output of PV Generating Capacity Resources • Performed analysis to assess the accuracy of the tool by comparing the FCM determined Summer QC with the resource's actual performance (Summer Seasonal Claimed Capability) once in-service • Operating PV generating capacity resources • Analyzed data from 99 operating resources • These resources were qualified for participation in FCA 11, 12, or 13 • Average QC is ~ 42% of the stated nameplate rating • Average SCC is ~ 45% of the stated nameplate rating • As shown on next slides, this average is strongly biased by resources with less than a full summer season of operating data • If these resources are excluded, the average SCC is ~ 43% of the stated nameplate rating for resources with a full season or more of operating data

  5. Tabular Comparison of Estimated Output to Actual Output

  6. Graphical Comparison of Estimated Output to Actual Output • SCC includes < 1 season • SCC includes ≥ 1 and < 2 seasons • SCC includes 2 seasons SCC includes > 2 seasons

  7. Conclusion • Data from PV generating capacity resources with less than a full season of operating life misrepresents the comparison • SCCs that reflect a partial season (June & July) introduce a lot of volatility • Such SCCs are not representative of the long-term performance of the PV generating capacity resource • Data from PV generating capacity resources with one or more full season of operating life show that the tool appears to perform within an acceptable error margin • Since the design of PV generating capacity resources continues to evolve, the ISO plans on continuing to track the tool’s performance

  8. Acronyms Used in this Presentation FCA: Forward Capacity Auction FCM: Forward Capacity Market PV: Photovoltaic QC: Qualified Capacity SCC: Seasonal Claimed Capability VRWG: Variable Resources Working Group

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