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Will China Democratize?

Will China Democratize?. Waves of Democratization. ``A group of transitions from nondemocratic to democratic regimes that occur within a specified period of time and that significantly outnumber transitions in the opposite direction during that period”. The First Two Waves.

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Will China Democratize?

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  1. Will China Democratize?

  2. Waves of Democratization • ``A group of transitions from nondemocratic to democratic regimes that occur within a specified period of time and that significantly outnumber transitions in the opposite direction during that period”

  3. The First Two Waves • A long and slow wave from 1828 to 1926 • A reverse wave of democratic breakdown from 1922 to 1942 • A wave of democratization after World War II from 1943 to 1964 • A reverse wave of democratic breakdown from 1961 to 1975

  4. The Third Wave • Started in Portugal and Spain in mid-1970s • Spread to South America from late 1970s to early 1980s • Reached Asia in late 1980s • Surge of transitions in East Europe at end of 1980s • South Africa 1990

  5. The Third Wave

  6. Causes of Regime Change

  7. Economic Variable • Economic development • dispersion of resources • economic pluralism • social pluralism • political pluralism

  8. Economic Variable • Economic development • middle class • demand for democracy • elite bargaining • political accommodation

  9. Economic Variable • Economic development • rising expectations • economic difficulties • popular discontent • regime crises

  10. Regime Changes Non-democracy Preservation State Crises Regime Change Democracy Democracy Non-democracy

  11. China: Favorable Conditions • Economic development • emergence and growth of new social groups • dispersion of resources to society • Technological advances • Ideological decline of Marxism, Leninism, and Mao Zedong Thought • Influence of Hong Kong and Taiwan • Influence of Western liberal democracies

  12. Obstacles to Democratization • Dominant single-party • strategic adjustments • coercive forces • Liberalization without democratization • Alliance of authoritarian and business interests

  13. Scenarios of Change • Preservation of authoritarian regime • Gradual transition to authoritarian pluralism • Gradual and moderate liberalization • Gradual and moderate democratization • Radical transition toward new authoritarian regime • Radical transition toward democracy

  14. Patterns of Democratization • From top down • Conflict of interest • Elite competition • Gradual transition • From bottom up • Popular demand • Political movement • Radical revolution

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