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Marsh Accretion with Sea Level Rise Steve Crooks, Matt Brennan, Justin Vandever, Jeremy Lowe, PWA

Marsh Accretion with Sea Level Rise Steve Crooks, Matt Brennan, Justin Vandever, Jeremy Lowe, PWA John Callaway, USF Diane Stralberg, PRBO RSM Science Workshop April 14, 2010. Sensitivity of bird habitat to sea level rise Long term habitat evolution and sustainability of restored habitats

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Marsh Accretion with Sea Level Rise Steve Crooks, Matt Brennan, Justin Vandever, Jeremy Lowe, PWA

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  1. Marsh Accretion with Sea Level Rise Steve Crooks, Matt Brennan,Justin Vandever, Jeremy Lowe, PWA John Callaway, USF Diane Stralberg, PRBO RSM Science Workshop April 14, 2010

  2. Sensitivity of bird habitat to sea level rise Long term habitat evolution and sustainability of restored habitats Quantification of carbon sequestration with sea level rise

  3. Marsh Elevation Marsh elevation response to: initial bed elevation, suspended sediment concentration, organic material accumulation, rate of sea level rise, and subsidence and compaction

  4. Marsh98 • Based on mass balance calculations described by Krone (1987) • Accretion rate depends on: • availability of suspended sediment • depth and period of inundation • As marsh aggrades, frequency and duration of flooding decreases and accretion rate decreases.

  5. Sedimentation in tidal wetlands

  6. Mineral sedimentation model Vegetation colonization elevation

  7. Natural Marshplain Elevation in 2100 (relative to rising tidal waters) Vegetation die-back Initial marsh elevation: MHHW Dry density of carbon: 500 kg m3 Orr, Crooks and Williams 2003 Will Restored Tidal Marshes Be Sustainable? San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science. Vol. 1, Issue 1 (2003), Article 5.

  8. Restored Marshplain Elevation in 2100 (relative to rising tidal waters) Vegetation die-back Initial marsh elevation: -0.5m MHHW Dry density of carbon: 500 kg m3 Orr, Crooks and Williams 2003 Will Restored Tidal Marshes Be Sustainable? San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science. Vol. 1, Issue 1 (2003), Article 5.

  9. Model Revisions • Allows acceleration of rate of sea level rise • NRC-I (0.5m rise) • NRC-III (1.5m rise) • Organic matter added directly to bed elevation

  10. March 3, 2000 Petaluma Estuary ASA/GSFC/METI/ERSDAC/JAROS,and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team San Pablo Bay Richardson Bay

  11. Approach • Bio-geomorphic units • Sediment supply • Organic accumulation • Sea level rise • 100 year time frame

  12. Model Runs • Initial Bed Elevation • Colonization elevation (+1.3m MLLW) • MHHW (+1.8m MLLW) • Subtidal, minimal waves (-0.6m MLLW) • SSC • 25, 50, 100, 150, 300 mg/l • Organic Matter • 0, 1, 2, 3 mm/yr • Rate of Sea Level Rise • NRC-I, NRC-III

  13. Low sediment availabilityConverts to mudflat SLR Scenario: NRC-III Suspended Sediment Conc: 25 mg/L Organic sedimentation rate: 1.0 mm/yr

  14. Medium sediment availabilityTracks colonization elevation SLR Scenario: NRC-III Suspended Sediment Conc: 150 mg/L Organic sedimentation rate: 1.0 mm/yr

  15. High sediment availabilityKeeps pace with SLR SLR Scenario: NRC-III Suspended Sediment Conc: 300 mg/L Organic sedimentation rate: 1.0 mm/yr

  16. High initial elevation has larger net change in elevation as less frequently inundated and receives less sediment. • Higher organic accretion raises bed elevations and reduces inundation period and inorganic accretion rate.

  17. 25mg/l – unlikely to sustain marshes • 50mg/l – sustain marshes only under most favorable conditions (high initial elevation and organic accumulation) • 100-150mg/l – sustain marshes for particular combinations

  18. Next Steps • Influence of waves • Compaction and subsidence • Integration in SLAMM-type model

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