A Framework for Estimating the Number of Extremists in Canada

1. A Framework for Estimating the Number of Extremists in Canada Stephanie Dawson Simon Fraser University & Garth Davies Simon Fraser University

2. Introduction • Hidden populations • Methods for studying these populations • Need to get accurate counts of extremists • Or at least some better approximation • Why? • Policy responses • Allocation of resources • Outline - 3 stages

3. Methods

4. Targeted & Time-Location Sampling • 2 components • Controlled list of specific populations within geographic district • Plan to recruit adequate numbers • Advantages • Disadvantages • Sample individuals who visit specific locations • Create comprehensive map of areas and time periods • Systematic sampling – select units entering of exiting location • Advantages • Disadvantages

5. Capture-Recapture Method • Basically works by capturing, counting and marking a sample, and then re-capturing that same sample at a later point and noting the overlap between these two captured samples • Advantages • Accessible; has been used successfully on range of populations • Disadvantages • Limited utility in certain situations

6. Fieldwork and Multiplier Methods • Compile list of areas containing population of interest • Sample from list • Advantages • Disadvantages • Ratio of known to unknown population • Overlap in independent data sources • Advantages • Disadvantages

7. Link Tracing Designs I • Snowball sampling • Network sampling • Adaptive sampling • Advantages • Disadvantages

8. Link Tracing Designs II • Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS) • Multistage process of selecting respondents from friendship networks • “Seeds” chosen from pre-existing contact • Seeds recruit respondents from networks • Advantages • Disadvantages

9. General Issues • Defining the problem • Self-definition • Reluctant to admit participation • Incomplete data

10. Application to Extremist Populations • Definition of extremist/terrorism • Challenges of obtaining cooperation • Negative connotation • International crime • Terrorists really are different • Level of violence • Clandestine • Global phenomenon • Both individual and group

11. Application in the Canadian context • Best approach – RDS • Not a unitary phenomenon • What groups would exist in Canada • Best hope – Internet • Still – serious challenges • Real value in RDS might lie with its ability to provide us with badly needed information as a starting point for further research

12. Thank you! • Steph and Garth