A generic risk assessment approach for multiple stressors & exposures

1. A generic risk assessment approach for multiple stressors & exposures Geoff Frampton, Guy Poppy, Jamie Sutherland Ecology & Evolutionary Biology Group School of Biological Sciences University of Southampton, UK Funded by

2. Can we optimize targeting of the monitoring resources to where they are needed ? Background(1) Limitations of the Farm-Scale Evaluations (FSE) of genetically-modified herbicide-tolerant crops: Intensive monitoring, hence expensive (£5.5 million) Monitoring unfocused, hence inefficient use of resources

3. Proposal: all new (or changed) agricultural practices should be assessed for environmental risk Background (2) Discrepancy in current agricultural risk assessment: Currently, agricultural risks are assessed routinely only for GM crops and pesticides Other more environmentally damaging agricultural practices do not require risk assessments (UK Advisory Committee on Releases to the Environment (ACRE), 2006)

4. How to assess risks of new or changed agricultural practices ?

5. Source – pathway – receptor principle Pathway Source Receptor Response (exposure) effect

6. REGIONAL risk assessment– e.g. invasive species in marine coastal area (Landis 2003) Imported invasive species 7 receiving habitats 9 predicted impacts invasion effect invasion effects 7 mechanistic models 23 mechanistic models Risk Analysis 24 (4) 2003 Source – pathway – receptor principle Pathway Source Receptor Response (exposure) effect

7. SPATIALLY EXPLICIT risk assessment– e.g. military landscape (Andersen et al. 2004) Spatially explicit hazards Indicator species Responses effects Co-occurrence Risk Analysis 24 (5) 2004 Source – pathway – receptor principle Pathway Source Receptor Response (exposure) effect

8. TRAIT BASED risk assessment– e.g. arable farmland (Butler et al. 2007) Affected ecological resources Required ecological resources Responses Effects depend upon resilience Co-occurrence Science 315 (5810) 2007 Source – pathway – receptor principle Pathway Source Receptor Response (exposure) effect

9. Crop Hedgerow Summer Winter Summer Winter NEST SITES DIET HABITAT Trait-based risk assessment (hypothetical example) Ecological resources of farmland bird species (=receptor) DIET HABITAT NEST SITES Summer Winter Summer Winter Soil inverts Soil inverts Crop Crop Epigeic inverts Epigeic inverts Margin Margin Margin Seeds Seeds Hedgerow Hedgerow Plant material Plant material Vertebrates Vertebrates Ecological resources affected by agricultural activity (=source)

10. Crop Hedgerow Summer Winter Summer Winter NEST SITES DIET HABITAT Trait-based risk assessment (hypothetical example) Ecological resources of farmland bird species (=receptor) DIET HABITAT NEST SITES Summer Winter Summer Winter Soil inverts Soil inverts Crop Crop Epigeic inverts Epigeic inverts Margin Margin Margin 2 / 3 1 / 3 Seeds Seeds Hedgerow Hedgerow Plant material Plant material 1 / 5 2 / 5 Score = 1.6 Vertebrates Vertebrates Ecological resources affected by agricultural activity (=source)

11. Butterflies (24 spp): Population growth = 7.212 – 3.525 × risk score (p = 0.001) Birds (62 spp): Population growth = 0.009 – 0.0064 × risk score (p < 0.001) Broadleaf plants (190 spp): Population growth = 0.008 – 0.004 × risk score (p = 0.001) Bumblebees (14 spp) Mammals (44 spp) Risk score Possibly declining Stable / increasing Possibly declining Stable / increasing Declining Declining Validation of riskscores for past agricultural changes (1970-2000) (spring to autumn sowing, increased agrochemicals, loss of non-cropped habitat, land drainage, switch from hay to silage, grassland intensification)

12. Trait-based risk assessment for introduction of Miscanthus bioenergy crops

13. Predict population trend Individual species Predict conservation status Interpreting output from trait-based risk assessment

14. Predict population trend Individual species Predict conservation status Communities Example: change from spring to autumn cereals Proportion of species Interpreting output from trait-based risk assessment

15. Summary Trait-based risk assessment is a potentially powerful approach for assessing agricultural risks (compatible with tiered approach) Risk assessors should define what they require the risk assessment to deliver (need for clear assessment endpoints and conceptual models) Questions arising… How to proceed in the absence of existing population data? Can trait-based RA be applied to ecological functions? How can risk assessment be integrated into assessment of agricultural sustainability?