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Lecture 2 on the European Natural Gas Market

Lecture 2 on the European Natural Gas Market. Auke Lont Member of Supervisory Board Gasunie. World Energy Demand. Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 IEA. Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 IEA. European gas supply. Future European gas supply creating concerns.

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Lecture 2 on the European Natural Gas Market

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  1. Lecture 2 on the European Natural Gas Market Auke Lont Member of Supervisory Board Gasunie

  2. World Energy Demand Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 IEA

  3. Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 IEA

  4. European gas supply

  5. Future European gas supply creating concerns Security of supply - price of energy - environment

  6. Gas supplies to Western Europe (2020)

  7. Gullfaks Statfjord Troll Frigg Kollsnes Helsinki Oseberg Heimdal Oslo Kårsto St. Petersburg Sleipner Stockholm Stavanger Ekofisk Tyra Copenhagen Dublin Minsk Berlin Emden Isle of Grain Warsaw London Essen Zee- Brussels Prague brugge Bratislava Paris Montoir Vienna Bern Budapest Lyon Ljubljana Bucharest Rovigo La Spezia El Ferrol Belgrade Fos-sur-Mer Krk Bilbao Sofia Barcelona Madrid Rome Lisbon Marmara Valencia Sines Brindisi Ereglisi Cordoba Huelva Athens Cartagena Izmir Tunis Algiers Britpipe Baltic Pipe BBL Existing U/C & planned Speculative GALSI MEDGAZ Green Stream

  8. Natural gas demand depends strongly on weather winter Load Duration Curve NW-Europe winter summer demand Gasvraag 2250 Peak supply Baseload Baseload Seasonal Storages Working gas volume MCM/dag Demand profile Supply Production Groningen 750 1 365 Gas day Demand ’05 (BCM) Swingratio ’95-’04 Belgium Denemark France Germany Netherlands United Kingdom 29% 36% 47% 36% 34% 34% 17.6 5.5 48.0 93.0 43.0 93.0

  9. Pricing of natural gas • Market value principle – interfuel competition • ’fixed in volume, flexible in price’ • High investment cost pr unit of transportation • Take or pay contracts as basis for development of markets – ’long term marriage’ • Suppliers investing in platforms and transmission pipelines • Gas companies investing in distribution lines and storage • Gas-to-gas competition

  10. Future of European gas • EU deregulation and 2020 agenda • Unbundling • Carbon price • Security of supply • renewables • Industry consolidation • New pipelines • Nordstream • Southstream • Nabucco • LNG • CCS (carbon capture and storage)

  11. What to do at EconPoyry? • Research – Ph D students • Analysis – market models • Consulting – large energy companies as clients • Examples • European Power market model • Nordic Power model • Carbon model • Gas portfolio optimization models • Scenario modelling • Visit us! • www.econ.no • www.poyry.no • www.gasunie.nl

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