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SLOW IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS NO IMPROVEMENT!

Presented by: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. President: GraphsandLaughs , LLC MMG Expert Advisory Board Member . SLOW IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS NO IMPROVEMENT!.

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SLOW IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS NO IMPROVEMENT!

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  1. Presented by: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. President: GraphsandLaughs, LLC MMG Expert Advisory Board Member SLOW IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS NO IMPROVEMENT!

  2. In addition to contributing to the Mortgage Market Guide Expert Advisory Board, Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is a nationally acclaimed economist and former Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, DC. He is a national speaker on the economic impact of homebuilding, consequences of government regulation, cost-benefit analysis, strategic business development and other current economic issues. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

  3. Here’s What We’ll Cover • What do your clients need to know about interest rates - and how can you get them off the fence and into action? • Could QE3 spark inflation this year and cause home loan rates to rise? • How long will the Fed support the mortgage market? • Is the budget deficit really a concern? • Can the improvement in the U.S. economy continue?

  4. The Data!

  5. Historical Job Growth Month over Month Employment Change

  6. Net New Payroll Jobs Per Month

  7. Total Employment Levels Well Below PeakTotal Non-farm Employment

  8. Real Per Capita Disposable Income is Flat

  9. Annual Y-o-Y Percent Change in GDP

  10. Trucking Tonnage Has Recovered

  11. Container Traffic Has More Than Recovered

  12. As Have Factory Utilization Rates

  13. As Have Orders for Capital Goods

  14. ISM Non-Manufacturing Numbers are Up!

  15. Corporate Profits are Growing Dramatically

  16. TheStock Market is Doing Very Well

  17. Commercial Real Estate is Recovering

  18. Money is Not Being Lent

  19. Monetary Velocity Drops Like a Rock

  20. Core PCE Price Index: No Inflation Anywhere!!

  21. Thus Low, but Not Lower Interest Rates!

  22. Consumer Confidence While Historically Low, is Up!

  23. Same With Small Business Confidence

  24. ISM Numbers are Down but Holding!

  25. Trade Deficit is Flattening Out….Maybe WorseningIt may slightly hinder employment growth

  26. Budget Situation Looks Bad but……….

  27. It is Improving…See!

  28. Budget Situation is Bad but Improving….Really!

  29. Budget Situation is Improving. Really It is!

  30. Best of All, No Recession is in the Cards!

  31. What About Housing?

  32. House Prices Have Bottomed….Really They Have!!!! Real house prices

  33. Negative Equity is Less and Less of a Problem

  34. Seriously Delinquent Loans Trending Lower

  35. Even in Hard Hit San Bernardino, CA

  36. Foreclosures are Declining as a % of Sales

  37. REO Inventory is declining too!

  38. Existing Home Inventories Are Falling Fast

  39. MBA Mortgage Purchase Applications – Ignore Noise!Investors are keeping them down

  40. Households are Repairing their Balance SheetsMore Income to Spend Elsewhere

  41. New Home Prices – In Recovery Mode

  42. Single-Family Starts – Beginning a Recovery

  43. Existing Single-Family Home Sales

  44. U.S. Home Ownership Rate Continues to Fall

  45. Multifamily Housing Starts Stupendous Response from Growth in Renters!!!!!

  46. Lumber Prices are a Problem!

  47. What About Things Here?

  48. Things Look Pretty Good

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