Global Challenges and High Impact Strategies Finnish Institute for International Affairs

1. Global Challenges and High Impact StrategiesFinnish Institute for International Affairs Jerome C. GlennThe Millennium Project -- themp.org

2. The World is in a Race Betweenimplementing ever-increasing ways to improve the human condition and the seemingly ever-increasing complexity and scaleof global problems. Global Collective Intelligence can help… Win the Race

3. Framework for understanding Global Change: 15 Global Challenges How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change? How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change? 1 How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? 2 How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions? 15 How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions? 3 How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? 4 How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? 14 How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? How can decisionmaking be enhanced by integrating improved global foresight during unprecedented accelerating change? 5 How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives? How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? 13 How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? 6 How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? 12 How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? How can the changing status of women improve the human condition? How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor? 7 11 How can the changing status of women improve the human condition? How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor? How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction? How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction? 10 8 How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced? How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced? How can education make humanity more intelligent, knowledgeable, and wise enough to address its global challenges? How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change? 9

4. 2015 State of the Future Index

5. 28 Variables use in the 2015 SOFI • GNI per capita, PPP (constant 2011 int$) • Economic income inequality (income share held by highest 10%) • Unemployment, total (% of world labor force) • Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (percent of population) • CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector rating Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$, billions) • R&D Expenditures (percent of GDP) • Population growth (annual rate) • Life expectancy at birth (years) • Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) • Prevalence of undernourishment percent of population) • Health expenditure per capita (current US$) • Physicians (per 1,000 people) • Improved water source (percent of population with access) • Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters) • Biocapacity per capita • Forest area (percent of land area) • Fossil fuel and cement production emissions (MtC/yr) • Energy-efficiency (GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2011 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent)) • Electricity production from renewable sources, excluding hydroelectric (percent of total) • Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above) • School enrollment, secondary (percent gross) • Share of high skilled employment (percent) • Number of wars and serious arm conflicts • Terrorism incidents • Freedom rights (number of countries rated “free”) • Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (percent of members) • Internet users (per 100 people)

6. World Report CardWhere are We Winning?

7. Where are We Losing? World Report Card

8. Initial Draft Integrated Global Strategy

9. Old way of looking at the Future of Technology Artificial Intelligence Robotic manufacturing Artificial General Intelligence Drones Tele-Everything & Tele-Everybody the Semantic Web Quantum computing Nanotechnology Synthetic Biology 3-D4-D Priting Computational Science

10. Smart Phone Integration/Synergies

11. Future Technology Synergies Robotic manufacturing Synthetic Biology Increasing individual and collective intelligence Quantum computing Nanotechnology Drones Robotic manufacturing Artificial General Intelligence Tele-Everything Tele-Everybody the Semantic Web 3D，4D Printing Augmented Reality Tele-Presence, Holographics Nanotechnology

12. Future Technology Synergies Robotic manufacturing Artificial Intelligence Future Technology Quantum computing Drones Robotic manufacturing Augmented Reality, Tele-Presence, Holographics 3D，4D Printing

13. Artificial Intelligence … that can autonomously “write” and improve its code… When this begins to happen, the speed of increasing AI’s intelligence will be far fasterand produce more change than Moore’s Law by responding to feedback from sensor networksworldwide, will accelerate AI’s intelligence worldwide… moment by moment

14. What is possible… will change • Moore’s Law • + • Artificial Intelligence acceleration to AGI • + • Computational science • These three together will change what we think is possible.

15. Emerging Technologies Table

16. Some Long-Rage FutureInternational Security Threats • SIMAD • Organized Crime • Artificial Super Intelligence • Global Long-term Structural Unemployment • Nanotechnology – individual mass armies, gray goo • Augmented Geniuses – mini Hitlers, brain gap prejudice • Climate Change to Green Sky • Weakening Magnetic Poles

17. Reduce the likelihood of SIMADs Potential Global Assessment by The Millennium Project

18. Will our artificial Brains out think us? Artificial Intelligence Artificial Narrow Intelligence Artificial General Intelligence Artificial Super Intelligence

19. Future of Work? Humans Augmented by technology ….rather than replaced by it?

20. If you can’t beat ‘em, why not join ‘em? …and evolve together?

21. Inevitability of New Economics • Concentration of wealth is increasing • Income gaps are widening • Employment-less economic growth seems the new normal • Return on investment in capital and technology is usually better than labor • Number of persons per services & products is falling • 25-50% unemployment is a business-as-usual forecast by 2050 without new economic approaches • Need for national long-range strategic planning workshops

22. Future Work/Technology 2050 Study • Literature and Related Research Review • Real-Time Delphi • Road Maps and Scenario Drafts • RTDelphi Feedback on the Scenarios • Final Scenarios, Policy Implications, and produce initial report • Initial Report as input to the National Planning Workshops • Collect results of the national planning workshops, analyze & synthesize results • Final report for public discussion

23. Guaranteed income – cash flow projection elements Income to Government • License and tax Robots • Carbon Tax • Tobin tax – on international financial transfers • Eliminate tax havens • Universal minimum corporate tax • Own percent of corporations • Tax massive wealth growth like some IT Lower annual cost of guaranteed income • Consolidate welfare programs (unemployment payments, etc.) into the guaranteed income • AI/robotics lowers to cost of living • Free or very low cost health, education, transportation, and energy Factors to consider • National service; Minimum annual public work • Phase in from work to “next” what every post-job/employment will be • Different incomes in different areas, countries • Can you both work income and guaranteed income?

24. Dense particles normally circling Earth, deep inside the magnetosphere, can extend a long arm out to meet – and help block – incoming solar material. http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/plume.gif The Magnetosphere may weaken enough in 500 years to no longer protect life on the Earth The sooner we start making plans to leave the earth, the better

25. Run Away Greenhouse at 1000 ppm CO2: Jim Hanson, NASA http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fact-or-fiction-runaway-greenhouse/Hydrogen Sulfate 1000 ppm kills planetary life , Peter Ward, Under a Green Sky http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/paleontologist-peter-wards-medea-hypothesis-life-is-out-to-get-you/US-China Joint Goal: 350 ppmThe sooner we start making plans to leave the earth, the better…Insurance Policy

26. A single individual acting along eventually will be able to make and deploy a weapon of mass destruction (SIMAD) The public was not involved in Nuclear Deterrence other than paying taxes, SIMAD is different – the public is key The sooner we start making plans to leave the earth, the better…Insurance Policy

27. Thinking the Unthinkable… Interactions of what can go wrong

28. Collective Intelligence Systems: Each Can Change the Other

29. Global Futures Intelligence System https://themp.org

30. UNOrganizations Universities Governments Corporations NGOs and Foundations … May become a TransInstitution The Millennium Project

31. 56 Millennium Project Nodes... are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in: Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.

32. Maybe… the greatest number of future-relevant facts, information, and intelligence ever assembled in one report.

33. 39 Chapters 1,300 pages Largest collection of Internationally peer-reviewed methods to explore the future ever assembled in one source

34. For further information Jerome C. Glenn +1-202-686-5179 phone/fax Jerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org www.StateoftheFuture.org Futures Research Methodology 3.0: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3.html 2015-16 State of the Future: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/201516SOF.html Global Futures Intelligence System: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/GFIS.html