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OPTIMIZING ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS FOR WIND POWER FORECASTS

OPTIMIZING ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS FOR WIND POWER FORECASTS. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Michael Denhard, Renate Hagedorn ForWind - University of Oldenburg Jens Tambke , Thomas Petroliagis, Miriam Wolff, Jinhua Jiang. ECMWF….

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OPTIMIZING ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS FOR WIND POWER FORECASTS

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  1. OPTIMIZING ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS FOR WIND POWER FORECASTS European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Michael Denhard, Renate Hagedorn ForWind - University of Oldenburg Jens Tambke , Thomas Petroliagis, Miriam Wolff, Jinhua Jiang

  2. ECMWF… …is an independent international organization, supported by 18 member states 12 co-operating states Co-operating agreements: Czech Republic Croatia Estonia Hungary Iceland Lithuania Montenegro Morocco Romania Serbia Slovakia Slovenia

  3. ForWind, the Center for Wind Energy Research of the Universities of Oldenburg and Hannover, combines scientific know-how with research geared towards the industry. ForWind bundles the competencies of both universities and is an adept industry contact. ForWind conducts basic research in the wind energy sector, cooperating in industrial projects from an independent scientific perspective.

  4. • Computer • Observations to start the forecast Numerical Weather forecasts • Numerical model to describe the processes in the earth system

  5. Initial Uncertainty Model Error Deterministic Forecasting Is this forecast “correct”? Temperature Forecast time Initial condition Forecast

  6. The Lorenz Attractor “… one flap of a sea-gull’s wing may forever change the future course of the weather” (Lorenz, 1963)

  7. Ensemble Forecasting Temperature Forecast time Initial condition Forecast Complete description of weather prediction in terms of a Probability Density Function (PDF)

  8. Flow dependence of forecast errors 26th June 1995 26th June 1994

  9. EPS appearing on TV Netherlands Germany Courtesy of Robert Mureau, KNMI

  10. Safe Wind “Multi-scale data assimilation, advanced wind modelling and forecasting with emphasis to extreme weather situations for a safe large-scale wind power integration.” EU-FP7 Project

  11. WP-5: Optimized Ensemble System September 2008 August 2012

  12. Limited area short range ensembles (1-3 days) Limited area medium range ensemble (2-5 days) AEMET SREPS Spain PEACE France GLAMEPS LAMEPS (Hungary) ALADIN-LAEF (Austria) NORLAMEPS (Norway) MOGREPS - NAE UK SRNWP-PEPS “Poor mans” ensemble Eumetnet, Germany COSMO LEPS COSMO SREPS Italy TIGGE-LAM:archive at ECMWF (-24 hours) Numerical forecast systems in Europe global high resolution models TIGGE(10 global EPS) Thorpex Interactive Grand Global Ensemble

  13. WP-5: high resolution deterministic system Sea Level Pressure und 10 m Winds 00 UTC, 12 December 2005 Anlysis and forecasts (a) T799L91 and (b) T511L60 ECMWF global high resolution deterministic model

  14. WP-5: Combined System Weight of high resolution determinitic run

  15. Ensemble Forecasts Online Ensemble WP5: Online ensemble Update weights of ensemble forecasts with respect to recent observations (every 3 hours)

  16. WP-5: Kombiniertes Vorhersagesystem • Wind and temperature forecasts on model levels • Weather pattern related Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) • Gust factor • Convert wind and temperature PDFs to windpower PDF

  17. SafeWind WP5: Summary • 6 Tasks, 11 Deliverables, 5 (direct) Partners

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