Is Mozambique on the eve of rice Green Revolution? A case study of the Chokwe irrigation scheme

1. Is Mozambique on the eve of rice Green Revolution? A case study of the Chokwe irrigation scheme Kei Kajisa (IRRI & FASID) Ellen Payongyong (Michigan State Univ.)

2. Introduction (1) • The importance of rice in Moz. has been increasing rapidly. • Rapid consumption growth • Stagnated production growth • Rapid increase in rice imports • Increasing foreign exchange expenditure

3. Introduction (2) • Why has production stagnated since 2000? • Stagnated area expansion after the completion of re-settlement. • Stagnated rice yield at 1 t/ha.

4. Introduction (3) • Moz. needs an appropriate rice development strategy. • Dominant ecosystem in Moz. • 61% lowland wet condition, upland dry condition is minor (Balasubramaninan et al., 2007) • Seeking an Asian-style GR with an appropriate localization effort could be a key strategy. • Controlled irrigation + modern varieties + modern inputs (chemical fertilizer) •  Skepticism (Africa’s condition is different from Asia!) • ↑But many are regional comparison. To investigate the potential of rice, it is better to compare rice growing areas. • ↑Some anecdotal success stories are emerging

5. Introduction (4) More solid micro-level evidence is needed to design an appropriate strategy beyond mere skepticism. The aim of this study Explore the potential of and constraints to a an Asian-style lowland rice GR in Moz., using household-level data collected in the Chokwe irrigation scheme in 2007 (w/ financial support from JBIC, JSPS, IFAD).

6. Chokwe Maputo

7. Why Chokwe ? (1) • Chokwe Irrigation Scheme • Gravity system, managed by the state • The most favorable area for rice cultivation. • Its potential is as high as the banks of Nile (10 t/ha)! • Asia’s experience • GR started in the most favorable areas and then extended to less favorable areas (David and Otsuka, 1994) • Thus, it makes sense to explore if Chokwe has a chance to be a starting point of Moz’s rice GR. •  We compare the current condition of Chokwe with those of Asia’s favorable areas in 60-70’s to conjecture about possible constraints in Chokwe. (1st step of our analysis)

8. Why Chokwe ? (2) Besides, within Chokwe, we can observe wide variation in yield, cultivation practice, and household socio-economic conditions. Yield: 3.8 – 0.6t/ha (top25% vs bottom 25%) NPK use: 67 – 0 kg/ha (top25% vs bottom 25%) Different access to irrigation water HH size and schooling years  Statistically identify household level constraints by estimating a yield function and factor demand functions (2nd step of our analysis)

9. Two plots in Chokwe, different performance no water, a lot of weeds, low yield Sufficient water, proper management, high yield

10. Comparison w/ Asia: Yield

11. Comparison w/ Asia: Prices

12. Comparison w/ Asia: Input Intensity

13. Comparison w/ Asia: Socio Economic Characteristics

14. Comparison w/ Asia: Findings • Yield is higher than Asia before GR but slightly lower than Asia during the early phase of GR.  Potential exist, but slightly lagged behind • Extremely expensive N, moderately expensive labor. Less use of these inputs • Inaccessible credit and insufficient water could be other reasons for less intensive use of N. • Synchronization of peak labor season and few landless may make intensive use of labor further difficult. • On the other hand, no discernible differences in • the extent of mechanization, farm size, schooling years, family size, age.

15. Determinants of rice yield (1): Approach Yield function y=f(xc, xg, h) Factor demand functions xc=g(xg, z, h) xc: inputs (choice of a farmer, endogenous, e.g. NPK) xg: inputs (given to a farmer, exogenous, e.g. irrig’n) h: HH management ability (educ and age) z: factor endowments/wealth (HH size, non-ag assets, etc) • To the make the IV method valid, we would like to have less xc and more z. •  linear yield function (no squared terms of xc) and include h only in factor dem. functions as a part of z.

16. Determinants of rice yield (2): Yield function

17. Determinants of rice yield (3): Factor Demand Functions (selected vars)

18. Determinants of rice yield (3): Decomposition of yield increasing factors 14% incl. indirect impacts

19. Conclusion (1) • The conditions of Chokwe for embarking on the Asian-style lowland rice GR are not as disadvantageous as those of Asia in the past, except for excessively expensive chemical fertilizer and moderately costly labor. • These inputs are used less intensively in Chokwe, resulting in low yield. • Inaccessibility to credit and insufficient water lower input intensity further, resulting in further low yield.

20. Conclusion (2) • Implications • Improvement of irrigation management is important. • Worth thinking strategies to improve • farmers’ credit access and • liquidity constraint (↑cash on hand) • Introduction of improved modern varieties • Shorter maturity duration variety would relax the timing of transplanting and thus spread out the peak season labor demand. • Remaining issues • How to make chemical fertilizer cheaper?

21. Limpopo

22. Thank you very much