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Simple Analysis and Parsimonious Forecasting

Simple Analysis and Parsimonious Forecasting. Vernon Gair. Previous Module Summary. About the Company.

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Simple Analysis and Parsimonious Forecasting

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  1. Simple Analysis and Parsimonious Forecasting Vernon Gair

  2. Previous Module Summary

  3. About the Company • Aéropostale, Inc. is a primarily mall-based, specialty retailer of casual apparel and accessories, principally targeting 14 to 17 year-old young women and men through its Aéropostale stores and 4 to 12 year-old kids through its P.S. from Aéropostale stores.

  4. 1 Yr. Stock Chart

  5. Measures of Performance

  6. Implied Price Per Share

  7. Return on Net Enterprise Assets

  8. Parsimonious Forecast

  9. Valuation Using Cash Flows

  10. Analysis and Assumptions • Adjusted Assumptions for each year, to move from Analysts estimates toward historical averages • 15.8% WACC Used per Bloomberg Estimates • 2.5% Terminal Growth Used in line with Industry Growth Rate Per IbisWorld • Implied Value per Share $6.44 Calculated using Current Shares Outstanding and Estimated NFLs • 2/4/2014 Closing Price $6.59

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