“Orientation Forum on Climate Concepts and Seasonal Climate Forecasts” Haus Malibu, Malaybalay, Bukidnon December 1, 20

1. “Orientation Forum on Climate Concepts and Seasonal Climate Forecasts” Haus Malibu, Malaybalay, Bukidnon December 1, 2005 PROJECT BACKGROUND FLAVIANA D. HILARIO,Ph.D. Chief, Climatology and Agrometeorology Branch PAGASA/DOST

2. Project Title : BRIDGING THE GAP BETWEEN SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTS (SCF) AND DECISION MAKERS IN AGRICULTURE Funding Agency : Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) Proposed Project Duration : 1 January 2005 – 31December 2008 (4 years) Project Coordinators: Australia : ACIAR Philippines : Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry and Natural Resources Research and Development (PCARRD)

3. IMPLEMENTING AGENCIES • PHILIPPINES: • PAGASA – Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration • LSU – Leyte State University • 3. PIDS – Philippine Institute For Developmental Studies • AUSTRALIA: • 1. South Australian Research and Development Institute (SARDI) • 2. New South Wales Department of Primary Industries • (NSW DPI) • 3. University of Sydney

4. Climate science issuing Forecasts Decision makers in Philippines & Australia dealing with climate risk in agriculture

5. Climate science making SCF Decision makers in Philippines & Australia dealing with climate risk in agriculture In both the Philippines, Australia there is a flow of information between climate science and decision makers. And this flow will continue without this ACIAR project.

6. Climate science making SCF Decision makers in Philippines & Australia dealing with climate risk in agriculture However we believe that there is a gap between what climate science has to offer and what decision makers are using. Internationally we have found that making climate science useful for decision making has proven to be more difficult than first thought.

7. Our study area is the interaction Climate science making SCF Decision makers in Philippines & Australia dealing with climate risk in agriculture This project is not a climate science project, nor is it a detailed study of agricultural systems – we are looking at how climate science can be used for better decisions in agricultural systems

8. Our study area is the interaction Climate science making SCF Decision makers in Philippines & Australia dealing with climate risk in agriculture Our aim is to bridge the gap What we learn will be useful in other parts of the world and for other areas in Philippines and Australia where science is being used for decision making

9. 5 objectives • To improve the capacity of PAGASA to develop and deliver SCF for the case study regions of the Philippines • To distil key practical and methodological features of economic and psychological approaches to valuing SCF • To estimate the potential economic value of SCF for farm level and policy, or industry level, case studies in the Philippines and Australia. • To identify those factors leading to a gap between actual and potential values of SCF • Develop and implement strategies to better match forecasts with decision maker’s needs

10. 5 Objectives • Improve forecasts • Review frameworks to value SCF • Apply desktop frameworks to case studies • Find gaps between actual and potential value from case studies through field work • Bridge the gaps

11. End user PAGASA PIDS LSU PAGASA AGROMET STN & Agricultural offices Flow of SCF

12. CASE STUDY REGIONS ARE RICE AND CORN PRODUCTION AREAS IN THE PHILIPPINES : ISABELA, LEYTE AND BUKIDNON AND CEBU