Chapter 7

1. Chapter 7 Population Futures

2. Population Size Three factors affect the size of a population: Total fertility rate (TFR) – more birth = higher population Life expectancy – living longer = higher population Migration – more immigrants than emigrants = increase in population

3. Factors That Affect Population Each of the factors are influenced by combination of economic and social conditions Population projections include a range of possibilities based on different assumptions about TFR, life expectancy, and migration Range of projections are produced by demographers (lowest realistic estimate for TFR, highest realistic TFR, “best guess” TFR)

4. Range of Projections Most likely future population is called the medium variant Others are called high variant and low variant Unless expert assumptions are wrong, future population should be between high and low variants, close to medium variant

5. Population Implosion Low fertility rates Implications felt in Russia, eastern Europe, Japan – declining populations Populations of core increasing to due in-migration (less important than fertility and life expectancy

6. Birth Dearth What is it? World average low fertility rates Population implosion-mainly in Europe and first world countries A result of already existing small families having small families of their own Reasons: cost, dual income families, starting families later in life, female education etc.

7. Implications of Birth Dearth Family Structures Aging Populations Small families alter the character of family life Many cases families will not have brothers, sisters, aunts, uncles or cousins (i.eChina) – greater responsibilities An explosion of DINKs (Double Income, No Kids) decreasing number of younger people By 2050, double number of people over 60 High demand on society to fulfill needs of elderly Increased pension payouts, health and leisure services etc.

8. Implications of Birth Dearth Con’t Labour Shortages Economic Effects Shortages of workers due to decrease in population Early retirement takes workers out of field earlier Already shortages of workers in some fields Need for immigrants increased Can lead to problem of illegal immigrants and loss of cultures Economic growth is based on demand for goods and services and population growth Decrease in population hinders economic growth

9. Implications of Birth Dearth Con’t Shift in World Power The UN Security Council (formed in 1945) is made up of the world’s powers at that time With most of these countries experiencing declining populations by 2050 and others such as India, Indonesia and Brazil growing both in population and industrialization Will these countries become the new world powers?

10. Benefits of Birth Dearth Less resource use Fewer waste products (carbon emissions, air & water pollution) Since decline will happen in wealthiest countries, there will be fewer people who use the most resources and produce the most waste

11. Why is Birth Dearth Happening? Demographic transition Women better educated; studies show women with more education have fewer children Women choosing to have careers outside the home Choose to work for more years More control over lives than in traditional societies Marry later More lively to divorce Access to effective birth control

12. Can We Prevent a Population Implosion? Encourage people in developing countries to have more children Policies called “pronatalist” Incentives, cash payments, tax benefits Address economic and non-economic pressures – parental leaves, onsite daycare, work from home Immigration