John P. Holdren

1. Meeting the Energy-Economy-Environment Challenge John P. Holdren Assistant to the President for Science and Technology and Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy Executive Office of the President of the United States Lectio Magistralis University of Rome “Tor Vergata” • 12 November 2010

2. Why is energy important? Because… • economic well-being is important, • environment is important, • politics are important, and… Energy is closely tied to all of these.

3. Economically… • Affordable energy = crucial ingredient of sustained prosperity & sustainable development. • Energy ~6-10% of GDP, 10% of world trade, and a large part of trade deficits in importing countries • Costly energy → inflation, recession, frustration of economic aspirations of the poor. • Investments in energy-supply systems ~$800 billion/yr worldwide; up to15% of gross domestic investment in developing countries.

4. Environmentally… • Energy supply = major contributor to dangerous & difficult environmental problems from local to global • Specifically, energy supply is source of • most indoor and outdoor air pollution • much of the hydrocarbon and trace-metal pollution of soil and ground water • essentially all of the oil added by humans to the seas • most radioactive waste • most of the society’s emissions of the greenhouse gases that are disrupting global climate.

5. Politically… • Energy availability & cost influence distribution of industry & population within & among countries, affecting distribution of influence and generating tensions from inequities. • Oil & gas are so important to economies that suppliers can use cut-offs as a weapon, and importers may threaten or wage war to gain or maintain access. • Spread of nuclear-energy technologies spreads access to nuclear-weapon capabilities • Energy systems are “force-multiplier” targets for terrorists. • Internal & international tensions & upheavals can result from energy-strategy inadequacies that threaten, create, or perpetuate economic or environmental impoverishment.

6. The Challenge in Theory

7. Energy strategy must meet multiple aims ECONOMIC AIMS • reliably deliver fuel & electricity for basic human needs, amenities, jobs, & economic growth • limit costs of energy to firms & consumers • limit cost & vulnerability from imported oil • help provide energy basis for economic growth in other countries (for markets, stability)

8. The multiple aims (continued) ENVIRONMENTAL AIMS • improve urban and regional air quality • avoid nuclear-reactor accidents & waste-mgmt mishaps • limit impacts of energy development on fragile ecosystems • limit greenhouse-gas contribution to climate-change risks

9. The multiple aims (concluded) POLITICAL AIMS • minimize dangers of conflict over oil & gas and vulnerability to foreign-policy blackmail • avoid nuclear-weapons spread from nuclear energy • avoid energy blunders that perpetuate or create deprivation in other countries • avoid imposing disproportionate energy burdens on particular constituencies • reduce vulnerability of energy systems to terrorist attack

10. Why energy strategy is difficult • The aims are often in tension with each other. • It’s an initial-value problem, not an equilibrium problem • This means hardest part is not describing a system that does better, but getting from here to there. • And the “initial values” (and rates of change) now are unfavorable for desired outcomes, especially in relation to the problems of oil dependence and global climate disruption from fossil-fuel use. • There’s no technological silver bullet.

11. The Challenge in Practice Where we’ve been and where we’re headed

12. Growth of world population & prosperity over past 150 years brought 20-fold increase in energy use Growth rate 1850-1950 was 1.45%/yr, driven mainly by coal. From 1950-2000 it was 3.15%/yr, driven mainly by oil & natural gas.

13. Energy, economy, & CO2 in 2008 populationppp-GDP energy fossil E fossil CO2 (millions) (trillion $) (EJ) (percent) (MtC) World 6692 69.7 545 82% 8390 China 1326 7.9 99 85% 1910 USA 304 14.2 105 86% 1670 Russia 142 2.3 30 91% 440 India 1140 3.4 29 64% 390 Brazil 192 2.0 10 58% 100

14. Where we’re headed: by 2030, energy +60% over 2005, electricity +75%, continued fossil dominance Primary energy: recent history & business-as-usual forecast WEO 2007

15. Projected growth of oil use for road transport in Asia is particularly large WEO 2007

16. These oil demands are projected to be met mainly by imports WEO 2007

17. Coal use for electric power is projected to grow rapidly Coal-fired capacity, GWe, 2005 & USEIA projection USA China India World 2005 314 299 79 1214 2010 320 478 96 1451 2020 349 756 140 1849 2030 414 1034 173 2295 World coal-electric capacity goes up almost 1100 GWe by 2030, and over 800 GWe of the increase is in China and India. Source: US EIA, International Energy Outlook 2008

18. What’s problematic about this future?

19. The problem is not “running out” of energy Some mid-range estimates of world energy resources. Units are terawatt-years (TWy). Current world energy use is ~17 TWy/year. OIL & GAS, CONVENTIONAL 1,000 UNCONVENTIONAL OIL & GAS (excluding clathrates) 2,000 COAL 5,000 METHANE CLATHRATES 20,000 OIL SHALE 30,000 URANIUM in conventional reactors 2,000 ...in breeder reactors 2,000,000 FUSION (if the technology succeeds) 250,000,000,000 RENEWABLE ENERGY (available energy per year) sunlight on land 30,000 energy in the wind 2,000 energy stored by photosynthesis (net) 120

20. Nor is the problem running out of money International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2009 This is only ~1% of projected Gross World Product for the period, and only about 5% of projected world investment. Could reach 15% of investment in developing countries.

21. Real problems: tensions among aims • cost minimization vs. modernization, increased robustness & reliability, environmental improvements • increased domestic fossil-fuel production (for security & economy) vs. protection of fragile ecosystems • increased nuclear-energy production (for greenhouse-gas abatement) vs. reducing risks of accidents & terrorism

22. Real problems: the economic, political, & security risks of fossil-fuel dependence • Increasing dependence on imported oil & natural gas means economic vulnerability, as well as international tensions and potential for conflict over access & terms. • Coal burning for electricity and industry and oil burning in vehicles are main sources of severe urban and regional air pollution – SOx, NOx, hydrocarbons, soot – with big impacts on public health, acid precipitation. • Emissions of CO2 from all fossil-fuel burning are largest driver of global climate disruption, already associated with increasing harm to human well-being and rapidly becoming more severe.

23. Real problems: Alternatives to conventional fossil fuels all have liabilities & limitations • traditional biofuels (fuelwood, charcoal, crop wastes, dung) create huge indoor air-pollution hazard • industrial biofuels (ethanol, biodiesel) can take land from forests & food production, increase food prices • hydropower and wind are limited by availability of suitable locations, conflicts over siting • solar energy is costly and intermittent • nuclear fission has large requirements for capital & highly trained personnel, currently lacks agreed solutions for radioactive waste & links to nuclear weaponry • nuclear fusion doesn’t work yet • coal-to-gas and coal-to-liquids to reduce oil & gas imports doubles CO2 emissions per GJ of delivered fuel • increasing end-use efficiency needs consumer education!

24. The two biggest energy challenges • Reducing urban & regional air pollution and the dangers of overdependence on oil despite growing global demand from the transportation system (which accounts for most oil use in USA & elsewhere) • Providing the affordable energy needed to create & sustain prosperity everywhere without wrecking the global climate with carbon dioxide emitted by fossil-fuel burning

25. The oil challenge: supply & security • USA in 2008 used 21 million barrels per day of oil, importing 66% of it. • Forecasts show US oil use rising to 28 Mb/d by 2030, with all of the increase coming from imports. • World used 82 Mb/d in 2008, 63% of it traded internationally. • Consumption forecasted to rise from 82 Mb/d in 2008 to 120 Mb/d in 2030. • China’s imports by 2030 expected to pass 12 Mb/d. • It remains true that most of the world’s known & suspected oil resources are in the Middle East.

26. USA is biggest guzzler, but Asia is growing The Asia-Pacific region accounted for 30% of world oil consumption in 2005

27. The oil challenge: environment • Most oil is used in transport vehicles, and these are the largest sources of NOx and hydrocarbon air pollution. • The number of cars in the world is soaring, producing increased congestion and even more pollution. • Combustion of petroleum fuels accounts for about 40% of CO2 emissions from energy – same as coal – and this is expected to continue.

28. Acid precipitation under BAU energy growth Wet and dry reactive nitrogen deposition from the atmosphere, early 1990s and projected for 2050

29. The climate-change challenge • Global climate is changing rapidly and humans are responsible for most of the change. • CO2 emissions are the largest driver & 75-85% of these come from combustion of fossil fuels (the rest from deforestation). • Fossil CO2 emissions are immense (~31 billion tons/yr in 2008) & difficult to capture & store. • The world’s 80%-fossil-fuel-dependent energy system represents a $20+ trillion capital invest-ment that takes 30-40 years to turn over. • Avoiding biggest risks requires sharply reducing CO2/energy ratio starting immediately.

30. The Earth is getting hotter Green bars show 95% confidence intervals Green bars show 95% confidence intervals 2005 was the hottest year on record; 2007 tied with 1998 for 2nd hottest; 14 hottest all occurred since 1990 2005 was the hottest year on record; 2009 2nd; 2007 tied with 1998 for 3rd; 15 hottest all occurred since 1990 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

31. We know why Top panel shows best estimates of human & natural forcings 1880-2005. Bottom panel shows that state-of-the-art climate model, fed these forcings, reproduces almost perfectly the last 125 years of observed temperatures. Source: Hansen et al., Science308, 1431, 2005.

32. Harm is already occurring: US wildfires Wildfires in the Western USA have increased 6-fold in the last 30 years. Similar trends are evident in other fire-prone regions. Western US area burned Source: Westerling et al., SCIENCE, 2006

33. Harm is already occurring: pest outbreaks Pine bark beetles, with a longer breeding season courtesy of warming, devastate trees weakened by heat & drought in Colorado USGCRP 2009

34. Harm is already occurring: Melting permafrost Norwegian Polar Institute, 2009

35. Harm is already occurring: coastal erosion

36. Harm is already occurring widely Worldwide we’re seeing, variously, increases in • floods • wildfires • droughts • heat waves • pest outbreaks • coral bleaching events • power of typhoons & hurricanes • geographic range of tropical pathogens All plausibly linked to climate change by theory, models, and observed “fingerprints”

37. Bigger impacts are in store under BAU Last time T was 2ºC above 1900 level was 130,000 yr BP, with sea level 4-6 m higher than today. Last time T was 3ºC above 1900 level was ~30 million yr BP, with sea level 20-30 m higher than today. Note: Shaded bands denote 1 standard deviation from mean in ensembles of model runs IPCC Scenarios EU target ∆T ≤ 2ºC IPCC 2007

38. What’s expected: Heat waves Extreme heat waves in Europe, already 2X more frequent because of global heating, will be “normal” in mid-range scenario by 2050 Black lines are observed temps, smoothed & unsmoothed; red, blue, & green lines are Hadley Centre simulations w natural & anthropogenic forcing; yellow is natural only. Asterisk and inset show 2003 heat wave that killed 35,000. Stott et al., Nature 432: 610-613 (2004)

39. What’s expected: declining crop yields National Academies, Stabilization Targets, 2010

40. More harm is coming: acidifying the oceans About 1/3 of CO2 added to atmosphere is quickly taken up by the surface layer of the oceans (top 80 meters). This lowers pH as dissolution of CO2 forms weak carbonic acid (H2O + CO2 H2CO3). Increased acidity lowers the availability of CaCO3 to organisms that use it for forming their shells & skeletons, including corals. Steffen et al., 2004

41. What’s expected: Sea level could rise 1-2 meters by 2100, 3-12 m in the next few hundred years, up to 70 m eventually. What would 1-70 m of sea-level rise do to your region? Courtesy Jeffrey Bielicki, Kennedy School of Government

42. What should we do?

43. What to do: Oil • Improve & promote rail & other public transporta-tion + land-use planning for shorter commutes. • Strengthen vehicle fuel-economy standards • Provide manufacturer & consumer incentives to promote production & increased use of advanced diesel & hybrid-electric vehicles. • Accelerate development & deployment of non-petroleum transportation-fuel alternatives. • Build international cooperation to promote alternatives to expanded oil use in all countries.

44. What to do: Climate change There are only three options: Mitigation, meaning measures to reduce the pace & magnitude of the changes in global climate being caused by human activities. Adaptation, meaning measures to reduce the adverse impacts on human well-being resulting from the changes in climate that do occur. Suffering the adverse impacts that are not avoided by either mitigation or adaptation.

45. Mitigation & adaptation are both essential No feasible amount of mitigation can stop climate change in its tracks. Adaptation efforts are already taking place and must be expanded. But adaptation becomes costlier & less effective as the magnitude of climate changes grows. We need enough mitigation to avoid unmanage-able climate change, enough adaptation to manage the degree of change that’s unavoidable.

46. Adaptation possibilities include… • Changing cropping patterns • Developing heat-, drought-, and salt-resistant crop varieties • Strengthening public-health & environmental-engineering defenses against tropical diseases • Building new water projects for flood control & drought management • Building dikes and storm-surge barriers against sea-level rise • Avoiding further development on flood plains & near sea level Some are “win-win”: They’d make sense in any case.

47. Mitigation possibilities CERTAINLY • Reduce emissions of greenhouse gases & soot from the energy sector • Reduce deforestation; increase reforestation & afforestation • Modify agricultural practices to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases & build up soil carbon CONCEIVABLY • “Geo-engineering” to create cooling effects offsetting greenhouse heating (white roofs...) • “Scrub” greenhouse gases from the atmosphere technologically

48. How much mitigation is enough? • 550 ppmv CO2-e (50% chance of ΔTavg < 3⁰C) looks unlikely to avoid unmanageable change • 450 ppmv CO2-e (50% chance of ΔTavg < 2⁰C) would be more prudent • Achieving 450 ppmv requires that... • global emissions level off by ~2020 and decline thereafter to ~50% below 2000 emissions by 2050. • emissions in USA & other industrial countries level off by 2015 and decline thereafter to ~80% below 2000 emissions by 2050.

49. Mitigation costs & quantities for a 450 ppm track as of 2030

50. Costs and quantities: the fruit-tree metaphor Need RD&D to lower the fruit into reach Need C price to motivate reaching higher into the tree Need to remove barriers to picking this low-hanging fruit