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CLIMATE2030: A Japanese Project for Decadal Climate Prediction

CLIMATE2030: A Japanese Project for Decadal Climate Prediction. Masahide Kimoto Center for Climate System Research University of Tokyo and Team SPAM. Climate Projection by Computer Models. IPCC AR4 SPM.

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CLIMATE2030: A Japanese Project for Decadal Climate Prediction

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  1. CLIMATE2030: A Japanese Project for Decadal Climate Prediction Masahide Kimoto Center for Climate System Research University of Tokyo and Team SPAM

  2. Climate Projection by Computer Models IPCC AR4 SPM

  3. The 2nd phase of Japanese global warming projecton the Earth Simulator(Kakushin Program; 2007-2012) • Team 1: Long-term (FRCGC/NIES/CCSR) Tokioka • MIROC-ESM (T42L80+1.0x1.4L44+carbon cycle+aerosols+chemistry) • NICAM global CSRM, EMIC for uncertainty • physics ensemble • detailed dyn veg • crop yields, high tides • Team 2: Near-term (CCSR/NIES/FRCGC) Kimoto • MIROC AOGCM (T213AGCM+1/4x1/6OGCM+aerosols; medres(T85) as well) • Initialization w/ obs. + 10-member ensemble • Flood/drought risk assessment • Regionally hi-res OGCM • Team 3: Hi-res time-slice (MRI/JMA) Kitoh • 20km AGCM + 1km nested regional model near Japan • Impact on hydrology, flood risk assessment, Typhoons # Teams 1-3 all consist ofModelling/Uncertainty/Impact study components # ES will be upgraded in March 2009 (2.x times faster)

  4. Ensemble hindcast/forecast Assimilation/Initialization Japanese CLIMATE 2030 Project 110km mesh model • A near-term prediction up to 2030 with a high-resolution coupled AOGCM • 60km Atmos + 20x30km Ocean • w/ updated cloud PDF scheme, PBL, etc • advanced aerosol/chemistry • Estimate of uncertainty due to initial conditions • 10(?)-member ensemble • For impact applications • water risk assessment system • impacts on marine ecosystems • etc. • Test run w/ 20km AOGCM (in 2011) 60km mesh model 5-min topography

  5. Near-Term Projection: Issues Hawkins and Sutton (2008) • Models good enough? • Resolution? Ensembles? • Initialization? How? • Drift? • Decadal predictability? • Chemistry? Aerosols? • Volcanoes?

  6. Decadal Predictability for Natural Modes? Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

  7. SPAMSystem for Prediction and Assimilation by MIROC Data Assimilation/ Initialization Prediction Products Data Assimilation Coupled climate model MIROC

  8. Hirabayashi et al. (2006) Impact assessment

  9. Anthropogenic forcing Only Full forcing (Natual + Anthropogenic) Global mean SAT anomaly (oC) Global mean SAT anomaly (oC) Year Year Natural forcing Only (Solar + Volcano) No forcing Global mean SAT anomaly (oC) Global mean SAT anomaly (oC) Year Year Externally forced climate change(20th Century Reproduction Experiment w/o Data Assimilation) Nozawa et al. (2005)

  10. Predictability of PDO: Impact of initialization SST EOF1 20C3M OBS Time series projected on to simulated PDO 4 2 0 -2 -4 Initialized hindcast (Initial: 1970) 1970 1975 1980 4 2 0 -2 -4 Uninitialized 20C experiment 1970 1975 1980 Observation Hindcast & spread Mochizuki et al. (2009, submitted)

  11. Difference between Assimilated and Not Assimilated FCST 2006-2010 Decadal Predictability?Assimilation vs. Hindcasts w/ &w/oinitialization Global SAT PDO SPAM: System for Prediction and Assimilation by MIROC Mochizuki et al. (2009)

  12. Reevaluation of historical upper-ocean heat content • Depth correction for historical XBT & MBT (Ishii and Kimoto, 2009) Global heat content(0-700m) V6.2: Old analysis V6.7: New Analysis MIROC: medres 20C3M & spread

  13. Impacts of XBTーDBC: PDO Projection onto 20C3M EOF1 without XBT-DBC EOF1 Observation Predic. (1s) with XBT-DBC XBT depth correction improved climatology & initial condition

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